The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Autumn Lecture

A video recording of the meeting is now available for download and CPD. 

17.30 - 18.00: Registration

18.00 - 19.15: Lecture

19.15 - 20.00: Drinks reception

Jeremy Peat will provide his thoughts on the longer term expectations for our economy, in the context of global and domestic changes, and attempt to think through the implications for businesses, individuals and society. While double-dip recession continues in Scotland and the rest of the UK, there are also major concerns about the countries in the eurozone and indeed worries globally. As and when we emerge from recession it will not be to the ‘nice’ (non-inflationary consistent expansion) world of the first years of this century but to some more complex and problematic, post credit crunch, new economic and social world.

In this ‘new normal’ we must learn to live in a truly sustainable economic world rather than one boosted by excess credit and inflated expectations. We must also face the challenges of demographic change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, probably against the backcloth of much slower growth of output and continuing severe constraints on the public finances - where tough choices will abound.

The challenges to businesses and individuals will be accentuated; and society must cope with issues of inter-generational equity. The lucky ‘oldies’ will have escaped with index linked pensions, mortgage-free homes and retirement at 60. Life will be tougher for the currently economically active generation, with pressure also on those universal services which so many take for granted.

Economic policy makers – including politicians – face having to learn how to cope with a mix of efficiency and equity objectives, while always scarce resources become scarcer by the year. Those managing financial products will also be faced with a very different and more challenging context to that which they had become accustomed. But their role will become increasingly important to many.