Lecture by Dr Martin Weale: Uncertain uncertainty

This event is now fully booked.

To add your name to the waiting list please email danielle.reiterbund@actuaries.org.uk

Registration: 15.30 - 16.00

Programme: 16.00 - 17.30

Drinks reception: 17.30 - 18.30

Why attend?

Dr Martin Weale, Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries and external member of the Bank of England Monetary policy committee, will examine how uncertainty surrounding forecasts of key variables can be presented. Starting with a summary of current practice with response to both survival rates and key economic variables, it will discuss various possible notions of the best estimate.Various possible ways of estimating the uncertainty surrounding forecasts will be considered and the implications of these for the ways in which information about forecasting uncertainty will be assessed. The problems associated with identifying probabilities of rare events will be aired. Dr Weale will consider whether it is sensible to try to present an indication of uncertainty about uncertainty, presenting proposals for a way in which one might communicate uncertainty about the probabilities of various “inflation events” such as the uncertainty about the probability that inflation will be above or below target.Finally some of the implications of uncertain uncertainty for economic policy-making will be discussed.

A question and answer session will follow the presentation.

Who should attend?

This public lecture will be of interest to actuaries from all practice areas.