SIAS Meeting: Philosophy of modelling

Modelling is at the heart of almost all actuarial work. But what exactly is a model? What are we really doing when we design a model, or run one, or use its results?

Course content

In this presentation Matthew Edwards and Zaid Hoosain (Ernst & Young) explore the fundamentals of modelling – not ‘technical’ fundamentals but deeper issues which take us in places to the borderline of philosophy. Areas covered include:

• How has modelling developed over the last millennium?
• What is a model? Why is a model a model?
• What are the component steps in the modelling process, and what are the fundamental assumptions underlying their validity?
• Where does model risk arise, and how can we mitigate it?
• What are the lessons from all this? How can we improve our modelling, and achieve more robust validations?
• And what do Ludwig Wittgenstein, Bertrand Russell, William of Ockham and Thomas Aquinas have to say on the subject?

Who should attend?

The presentation is aimed at young and experienced actuaries from all practice areas.

A paper will be available on the SIAS website in due course.