Workshops

Date Details
Day two 10:40 - 11:40 Workshop session A
 

A1: Avoiding the Professional Foul

  • A challenge to your understanding of conflicts of interest  and matters ethical.
  • The facilitating team will, by means of case study and role play, get you to think of your professional judgment in situations close to the coalface.
  • It will be highly interactive.
  • It will count for 60 minutes towards the new experienced-actuary professionalism requirement (two hours per annum from 1 July every year).

Neil Hilary, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and Malcolm Slee, Aviva

Level: Professionalism - no prior knowledge required.

 

A2: What are the drivers of the treatment of large bodily injury claims and PPOs across the industry – is the outcome equitable for society and fair across the industry?

This workshop will outline the current treatment of large bodily injury claims including the potential for PPOs in different insurance sectors along with an analysis of exposure and comparison of reserving approaches evolving across the market.

It will look at the current motor market as well as medical malpractice and other areas where large bodily injury claims can be incurred both in the UK and internationally.

Fiona Annandale and Ian Burningham, KPMG

Level: Non technical - Some previous knowledge required. 

 

A3: UK Deafness Working Party Update

This workshop covers the background and history of deafness claims in the UK, the past insurance market experience and the recent trends observed as well as discussion about the key drivers behind these trends.

This workshop will help the reserving actuary understand the key issues to consider when establishing reserves for UK Deafness claims on Employers' Liability policies.

Brian Gravelsons, Zurich, Dan Sykes, RSA and John Wilson, Aviva

Level: Introductory - non technical. 

 

A4: Capital allocation leading practices

This workshop repeats in Session E

This session will present a distillation of leading practices from around the world in the capital cost allocation space.

Specifically we will cover:

(i) allocation of capital costs,

(ii) Away from sole reliance on extreme tail metrics to a blend of short, medium and long return period metrics,

(iii) Integrate explicit, formal statements of risk preference,

(iv) Design the capital allocation process based on performance criteria, and

(v) Create an operational buffer between the capital model and the field.

Andrew Cox and Don Mango, Guy Carpenter

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

A5: Is your cat model a dog?

This workshop repeats in Session E

Models of severe and infrequent catastrophic events involve many parameters, model choices and judgemental inputs. While one model may pass a battery of validation tests, other models might also pass the same tests but with different implications for large losses.

Andrew Smith and Ian Cook demonstrate practical ways to quantify the uncertainty in catastrophe models using statistical methods, benchmarking and stress tests.

Come to this workshop to discuss the implications for pricing, capital allocation and reinsurance programme design.

Ian Cook and Andrew Smith, Deloitte

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

A6: Using index insurance for weather risks

  • This presentation will introduce attendees to the following topics; Weather risks and Insurance options
  • Index insurance (is it a derivative or insurance?) and its possible use for weather risks
  • Livestock risk index insurance – a case study from Mongolia

Eamon Kelly, Deloitte

Level: Introductory - technical.

 

A7: As the CRO flies

This is a feedback session providing a summary of the themes emerging from recent CRO discussion groups.

Topics discussed include the role of the CRO, the best approaches to risk management, dealing with a Section 166, preparing for ICAS Plus and future concerns.

The aim of the session is to highlight the key issues faced by CROs.

Clare Barley and Charlotte Edwards, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

Level: Non technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

A8: Navigating the Low Interest Rate Environment

Central banks in developed economies have driven interest rates down to record lows, causing investment income to fall sharply, and putting pressure on earnings.

The primary challenges for property-casualty insurers are exposure to real interest rates and inflation, as well as long-run threats to capital from future rate increases. This asset-based problem requires insurers to consider enterprise-wide strategies.

The speaker will provide information specific to the European General Insurance market, including strategies for insurance asset management.

Russell Busst, Conning Asset Management Ltd.

Level: Non technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

A9: What can we learn from “Aussie Rules”?

Australian Appointed Actuaries are required to provide an opinion on a firm’s Risk Management Framework. This session will discuss the requirements and what we could learn from them as UK Actuaries.

Catherine Drummond and Phil Ellis, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

A10: Would you fly Air Actuary?

The FSA has found significant weaknesses in the use of end user computing (such as spreadsheets), whose outputs are relied upon.

We all have a responsibility to ensure the integrity of our spreadsheet models and their outputs throughout their life cycle, whether we’re designing the model or relying on its results.

What are the different types of models, uses and risks, and what are some of the potential solutions for their improvement and mitigation?

David Edison, Moore Stephens LLP; Steve Hill, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP; Richard Kelsey, Equity Group and Heidi Whitlow, GAD

Level: Anyone with responsibility or interest in the design, build, operation of, or reliability of outputs from, spreadsheet models. In short, anybody who actively uses spreadsheets or the results of spreadsheet models.

 

A11: Magamé – the mergers and acquisitions game (Global Edition)

You are the CEO of a major multinational insurance company known for your steely nerve, snap judgement and good, good looks. They are your competitors and every bit as stone cold sharp as you are. But times are changing, to continue to survive in this jungle of an international insurance market, you also need to change – either merge with one of your competitors or buy the poor souls.  Is this real life…you better believe it is:  Welcome to Magamé – The Mergers & Acquisitions Game (Global Edition).  

Rather than focusing on everyday actuarial intricacies, we want you to take a step back and think about the bigger picture – what it means to make strategic decisions which have the potential to create (or lose) value for the company you run. You will be given a packet of information prepared by your crack actuarial staff which presents detailed valuations of your competitors. But don’t sweat too much, for the more “visual” CEOs, you will also be given some pretty graphs and pictures which make those actuarial valuations understandable. With these valuations, some cash in your pocket and a bit of insider information about your company, you will have to approach your frienemies and negotiate an acceptable deal.   The winner is that team which adds the most value to their company through M&A activity.  

So good luck, your shareholders are counting on you.

Andy Staudt, Towers Watson

Date Details
Day two 16:30 - 17:30 Workshop session B
 

B1: Regulatory Reform, the PRA and the Bank of England

From April 2013 there will be a new regulatory structure for UK insurers. This workshop will explain the background to the new structure and the approach to insurance regulation that the Bank of England will follow, through the Prudential Regulation Authority, in meeting its new responsibilities.

There will also be a (hopefully interactive) discussion on the systemic vulnerabilities and importance of insurers within the UK and wider economy.

Kathryn Morgan and James Orr, PRA

Level: Introductory.

 

B2: Third party motor: the results of the fourth working party (2012/13)

This workshop repeats in Session E

Over recent years, third party motor claims have been subject to numerous new influences including the rise of claims management companies and the introduction of the MOJ reforms in 2010. The results of previous working parties have shown a largely inflationary story, but with some surprises along the way.

  • This workshop will set out the results of the latest working party's industry study, taking us up to the end of 2012; covering both Private Car Comprehensive and Commercial Motor.
  • It will look at third party claims both small (personal injury and property damage) and large. As before it will include projections and analysis by size band. In addition, however, given suitable data quality, we will also be setting out what the contributions to inflation have been of changing numbers of claimants per claim; as well as changes in legal versus indemnity inflation.
  • Our results will also be complemented by ancillary analysis based on access to ever increasing amounts of publicly available data.
  • And we will include an overview and perspective on the potential impacts of recent and expected changes in regulation and the claims environment in 2013 and beyond.  

David Brown, Direct Line Group and Rob Treen, Towers Watson

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

B3: It all depends... 

People often make relatively arbitrary decisions on the dependency structures in their internal model, without understanding how the choice may influence the business decisions that they will make from the modelled output.

The session will give a quick introduction to some of the common and less common dependency structures, some ideas on selecting, parameterising and validating them, and will explore how the choice affects your decision making and business steering.

Adrian Ericsson, Dynamo Analytics

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

B4: Price optimisation: sensitivity testing of assumptions

Any pricing optimisation exercise requires multiple inputs, such as loss cost estimates, conversion and retention models, mid-term cancellation models and future competitive positioning assumptions.

In this presentation, we will evaluate the sensitivity of the optimisation results to these assumptions. For instance, how will a less than optimal loss cost model impact the indicated optimised rating factors? How much effort should we dedicate to building conversion and retention models, and how sophisticated do these models have to be to meet the pricing optimisation challenge?

Pierre Goetz and Samuel Krikler, Earnix

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

B5: New investment strategies for general insurers

General insurers are exploring new investment strategies given the importance of generating yield in a low interest rate environment.

Andrew and Gareth will talk about innovative investment strategies being employed by some general insurers, factors that need to be considered and the models they have developed. In doing so, they will draw on their experiences from the life insurance market.

Gareth Mee and Andrew Stoker, Ernst & Young LLP

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

B6: Report of the Solvency II Technical Provisions Working Party

The SII requirements for the calculation of technical provisions for the SII balance sheet are in part prescriptive, but there is still uncertainty as to the "right" approach to take in several areas.

In this workshop we will discuss some of these areas, what the options are, what you should consider and how to come up with a practical approach that is still compliant

Susan Dreksler, PwC and members of the Solvency II Technical Provisions Working Party

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

B7: Big things come in small packages – Actuaries of Smaller Insurers Working Party  

Working for a small insurer or even a small team in a large insurer presents its own unique challenges and possibilities. Complying with regulation, communication and technical challenges can feel like a daily battle when you have few like-minded colleagues to turn to.

We will offer some practical hints on these issues and take a light hearted look at actuaries’ experiences and how their role has (or hasn’t) matched the job description.

Cameron Heath, Barnett Waddingham; Sameer Keshani, Pembroke Underwriting and Jacques Le Grange, The Warranty Group

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

B8: Bodily injury - Where next?

  • Examining recent trends in UK Bodily Injury Costs with specific reference to clinical negligence. 
  • Regional trends in comparison to other classes.
  • Projecting current trends forward.
  • Where next & What can be done?

Cherry Chan, Barnett Waddingham; Tim Jordan and James Turner, The Medical Defence Union

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

B9: Emerging Mobile Technology

The workshop will look at the emergence of technologies such as telematics, and the use of mobile phones and tablets, and explore their impact on general insurance. It will consider the current status and use of these technologies and consider likely developments in the short term.

Charles More, The Actuarial Consultants Ltd and other members of the Emerging Mobile Technology Working Party

Level: No prior knowledge required.

 

B10: What is keeping my CEO awake at night?

It is a challenging time to be running an insurance company. Tough market conditions, regulatory pressures, industry sales and consolidations, and changing distribution channels are all enough to give a CEO a headache. But what are the key dilemmas that the CEO is struggling with?

This workshop will highlight and discuss a number of them. In particular, it will consider the following questions:  

  • What is the right level of capital?   
  • What is the optimal scale for an insurer?  
  • Is the insurer merely reacting to regulatory change or using it to drive the business forward?   
  • How should the insurer optimise a multi-channel distribution strategy?  
  • How can expenses be reduced?

Jinit Shah and Simon Hugh Sheaf, Grant Thornton UK LLP

Level: Some previous knowledge required.

 

B11: ERM in an optimal control framework

Much development of ERM in the actuarial arena has been consisted of compilation of lists of identified risks, together with some commentary on the nature of   those risks. However, a unified theoretical framework in which to embed these inputs and point the way toward risk management action has usually been absent.

This paper attempts to place a structure on ERM by using optimal control theory with multiple criteria and multiple constraints. It commences with a brief description of this theory, setting out a control problem in generality. It then discusses the subject in terms of   the COSO ERM – integrated framework.

Each item of this framework is identified with one or more specific   aspects of the control theoretical problem. The theoretical platform sharpens the meaning of some of the items. It also gives precise meaning to some ERM concepts (e.g. risk appetite) that are usually discussed in only broad terms.

Sufficient generality is maintained in the control theoretic formulation of ERM for it to be applicable to any risk business. However, a number of specific applications to insurance are given.

Greg Taylor, Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries

Level: Technical - introductory.

Date Details
Day three 09:00 - 10:00 Workshop session C
 

C2: Reinsurance challenges and expectations for 2014 - A ratings agency perspective

Expectations concerning capital, earnings and pricing trends; challenges faced by global reinsurance sector through 2014; topical developments observed across the sector.

Harish Gohil and Martyn Street, Fitch Ratings

Level: Non Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

C3: Economic scenario generators: usage and trends in general insurance

Economic scenarios and economic scenario generators (ESG) are increasingly being used in the P&C insurance industry as a significant building block of an economic capital model (ECM).

After an introduction to economic scenario generators, the presentation will focus on the various uses of economic scenarios within an ECM for P&C insurers and reinsurers. In particular, applications such as modeling the economic drivers of insurance liabilities, market risk management, ALM and strategic asset allocation will be presented.

The role that economic scenarios play in providing a link between the asset side and the liability side of the balance sheet at the enterprise-wide level will be emphasized.

Loic Grandchamp, Moody’s Analytics

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

C4: IMAP Working Party Update: Solvency Do (and Solvency Don’t)

The delay in Solvency 2 implementation has led to firms revisiting their next steps. For some, it is a respite in a relentless IMAP process. For others, it is an opportunity to press on and get ahead. Previous decisions made under time pressures are being revisited.

In this session we give some insights around the lessons learned to date and we explore continuously evolving areas of good practice. The illusion to some is that IMAP has retreated to a safe distance. Could it now be true that objects in the Solvency 2 mirror may be closer than they appear?

Please come along as we enter the next phase in the enduring IMAP saga.

Gavin Dunkerley, KPMG and Melinda Strudwick, PwC

Level: Technical - introductory

 

C5: Update from UK Asbestos Working Party

Update on market experiance and legal and other developments.

Members of the UK Asbestos Working Party

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

C6: Update from Advanced Pricing Techniques Working Party

Update from the APT working party, which might include the research development on use of GLM, demand/elasticity modelling and pricing in telematics.

Tom Taverner, Mango Solutions; Dani Katz, Optim Analytics; Ji Yao, Ernst & Young and Simon Yeung, Grant Thornton

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

C7: Lloyd's annual update

This workshop repeats in Session E

General Lloyd’s update plus information on syndicate reserves, syndicate capital and central capital model (2012 saw a successful transition to using Solvency II models and balance sheets in the capital setting at Lloyd’s (but still under the ICAS regime).

The outcomes from this exercise produced a number of interesting statistics and the process is evolving even further. Market conditions have been challenging recently which impacts operating conditions but this is offset to some extent by the underlying development on older years and a positive effect on the reserving cycle.

Recent years have also been significantly impacted by catastrophes and it will be interesting to see if 2013 bucks this trend and how the previous losses are running off. Lloyd’s own internal model (the LIM) is fully in use and embedded into Lloyd’s central risk structure including feeding Lloyd’s central ORSA).

Henry Johnson, Tracey Moore, Eric Pizarro and Karen Seidel, Lloyd's

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

C8: Irish issues

On the 19th September, the Central Bank of Ireland issued a consultation paper on Reserving and Pricing for Non-Life Insurers and Life and Non-Life Reinsurers (including Composites).   In the Irish Issues workshop, we plan to devote most of our time to this latest initiative, which has been under development by the Central Bank of Ireland for some time. The main headings we will cover from the paper are as follows:

  • Governance Requirements: Claim estimates, data, pricing policy, reserving committee and policy
  • Role of the Signing Actuary: PCF, internal and external solutions, and rotation
  • Scope of Statement of Actuarial Opinion: Best estimate, data standards, quantification of uncertainty
  • Internal Audit requirements: Internal audit of the reserving process
  • Risk Margin Report: Author, Frequency
  • Peer Review: Frequency, External, Scope
  • Extent to which the paper applies to Life Reinsurance Companies   We would welcome all feedback

Ger Bradley, Milliman

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

C9: Banking Working Party Update

Members of the Banking Working Party

 

C10: How to deal with PPOs in practice

  • How GI balance sheets will evolve as the volume of PPOs awarded increases
  • The challenges created for assets and liabilities
  • Practical investment solutions to meet your PPO liabilities

Harold Clarke; Scott Jamieson, Kames Capital and Chloe Paillot, Ernst & Young LLP

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

C11: The leading edge of risk research: projects and progress at the University of Cambridge

We'll give brief descriptions of some of the current research being undertaken at the Centre for Financial History and the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge. Topics include:

  • Historical transformation of risk and uncertainty viewed through the lens of marine insurance pricing,
  • Environmental risk
  • Identification and classification of emerging risks
  • System shocks to supply chain networks
  • External shocks and financial networks
  • Market behaviours and how they vary We'll talk in more detail about two projects (based on what recent results have emerged, and current events) and lead discussions on their relevance to insurance
  • Lessons that can be learned
  • Implications for pricing and reserving
  • What further research would be helpful for actuaries?
  • What experience from insurance practice would help the researchers?

The session will be highly interactive, but requires no prior knowledge - only a willingness to find analogies and consider new viewpoints.

Adrian Leonard, Centre for Financial History and Louise Pryor, Centre for Risk Studies

Level: Non technical - introductory. 

Date Details
Day three 10:10 - 11:10 Workshop session D
 

D1: Life cycle of the peril

The GIROC Reserving Research Working Party has developed a peril-based framework for the emergence of risk and claims. This framework has applications in pricing, reserving and in reserve-variability assessment as an input to capital modelling.

With rapidly changing economic, technological, social and environmental conditions, and with product innovation in the financial services, this talk will put forward the proposition that actuaries in pricing, reserving and capital modelling should be able to approach the assessment of risk through the ‘Life Cycle of the Peril’!

James Orr, PRA and Alex Marcuson, Marcuson Consulting

Level: Some previous (reserving, pricing or capital modelling) knowledge required.

 

D2: Correlations between long tail LOBs, common drivers, and a single composite model for multiple LOBs

We discuss three types of relationships between long tail LOBs; process or volatility correlation, parameter correlation and similar trend structure, equivalently common drivers.

Two LOBs or segments have common calendar (accident) year drivers if calendar (accident) year trends change in the same way in the same years. Common drivers are the strongest type of relationships. Process correlation between two LOBs is spurious unless for each LOB the identified (optimal) model measures the trends in the three directions.

Common drivers by accident (underwriting) year have major implications for pricing future accident (underwriting) years. The single identified (optimal) composite model projects log-normal distributions for each cell in each LOB including correlations between LOBs and within LOBs yielding a wealth of metrics required for risk capital allocation, SII one-year risk horizon metrics including SCR, Technical Provisions and Risk Margins, and variation in mean ultimates on year hence.

Ben Zehnwirth, Insureware Pty Ltd

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

D3: Modelling the post-crisis world: sovereign debt and other credit risk issues

The events post 2007 have brought back into focus the risks of investing in sovereign debt, and that movements in asset prices arise from a variety of sources including the potential of default.

Speaker will provide an overview of the challenges of credit risk modeling in general, and the implications for risk managements and asset allocation.

Dr. Matthew Lightwood, Conning Asset Management Limited

Level: Technical - prior knowledge required.

 

D4: Risk MI - embedding within the business

The session will consider possible ways that management information can be set out and communicated within a company. Including: 

  • key metrics to consider
  • how these can be best presented
  • automated reporting.

We will include our own experience.

Steven Loyens and Stav Tsielepis, Arch Insurance

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

D5: Economic capital model validation: process and technical guidelines

Model validation is needed for regulatory reasons as well as for best practice. The lack of explicit guidelines is due in part to unclear definitions of model risk. We will present a conceptually clean definition of model risk that can be broken down into manageable components.

Through interactive discussion, participants will gain a better understanding of how to formulate model validation guidelines in their companies. Participants will receive a working paper on model validation which contains numerous explicit guidelines for their consideration.

David Simmons and Alice Underwood, Willis Re

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

D6: Back of the envelope price optimisation

For many companies optimisation modelling is too complex to easily comprehend and communicate. We will present simple ideas for validating and performing price optimisation in a transparent way.

You will be able to take our formulas and implement them in a simple Excel spreadsheet or even with pen and paper.

Oliver Helm, Lloyd's of London and Jan Iwanik, Pulsar Actuaries

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

D7: 1 in 200 Estimate Working Party update

How workable and how sensible is the one-year, one in 200 regulatory target for insurance companies?  We can complain about the theoretical weaknesses, and the false confidence it may give, but there is no point complaining without proposing something better.  What might be better, and why?

The workshop arose out of concerns that the actuarial profession might be running into danger if the 1 in 200 regime were to be seen to have failed without our having spoken out enough.

It will be organised to provoke a lively discussion which will not be limited to technical actuarial points, but will include reasonable expectations of policyholders, systemic risks (lots of failure together), and the impact of the regulatory environment on company behaviour.

1 in 200 Estimate Working Party members

 

D8: Women in the actuarial profession

Working party progress so far and an open discussion forum on recommendations.

Helen Cooper, KPMG and other members of the working party

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

D9: PPO Working Party 2013 survey findings

Highlights from the fourth UK PPO survey.

Sarah MacDonnell and Emma Potter, Towers Watson and Anthony Wright, The MDU

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

D10: Engaging with the board

What items should actuaries be discussing with the board and practical examples of what works and doesn't work with boards.

Mohammad Khan, PwC and working party members

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

D11: Groupe Consultatif - how it serves non-life actuaries across Europe?

The workshop will explore:

  • Who and what is Groupe Consultatif - what are GC's objectives?
  • Overview of its output in the last 2 - 3 years.
  • GC's work on gender discrimination
  • How GC has built relationships with EIOPA and the Commission - and the insights that actuaries get from that
  • Impressions of the expanded EIOPA and its state of development in 2013
  • Non-life topics such as underwriting risk and cat risk methods and calibrations
  • Outcomes from the SII LTGA exercise -why this matters to non-life practitioners?
  • What GC said during the SII Interim Measures consultation?   Why did we say what we said?
  • A wider perspective on where SII stands as at October 2013. Interactive with the workshop attendees and with Q&A session to ensure that GC take away your views.

David Paul, Groupe Consultatif

Level: No previous knowledge required.

Date Details
Day three 16:00 - 17:00 Workshop session E
 

E1: Getting the cat model out of the bag

The working party was set up to explore areas of common interest between the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the catastrophe model vendor companies. Education has emerged as a key theme.

The group is aiming to empower and enhance the knowledge of actuaries who deal with cat model output. The group is preparing for two key deliverables: The first is a review of the current core reading, suggested reading list (and possibly Act Ed material) on catastrophe models to see if the educational content is up to date and prepares actuaries for the many ways they will use catastrophe model output in their various roles. The second is a cat modelling area within (or linked to) the IFoA website produced in collaboration with the model vendors.

This will be like a 'WikiCat' and contain guidance, answers to FAQs and a compendium of available helpful publically available information.

Cat Model Developers Working Party Members

Level: No prior knowledge required.

 

E2: Third party motor: the results of the fourth working party (2012/13)

Over recent years, Third Party Motor claims have been subject to numerous new influences including the rise of claims management companies and the introduction of the MOJ reforms in 2010. The results of previous working parties have shown a largely inflationary story, but with some surprises along the way.

This workshop will set out the results of the latest working party's industry study, taking us up to the end of 2012; covering both Private Car Comprehensive and Commercial Motor.

It will look at third party claims both small (personal injury and property damage) and large.  As before it will include projections and analysis by size band.  In addition, however, given suitable data quality, we will also be setting out what the contributions to inflation have been of changing numbers of claimants per claim; as well as changes in legal versus indemnity inflation.

Our results will also be complemented by ancillary analysis based on access to ever increasing amounts of publicly available data.

And we will include an overview and perspective on the potential impacts of recent and expected changes in regulation and the claims environment in 2013 and beyond.

David Brown, Direct Line Group and Rob Treen, Towers Watson

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

E3: Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater: going granular in reserving and respecting the conventional chain ladder approach

Granular reserving is a hot topic in actuarial practice these days. There is a feeling that granular data contain more information and that the celebrated chain ladder has to go. However, we can start exactly where we are today, and in small steps enter the new world of granular reserving.

Practical actuaries can evaluate, validate and understand every step they take. The result is a new simple methodology containing all the actuarial experience collected during the many years with the chain ladder method.

Jens Perch Nielsen, Cass Business School and María Dolores Martínez-Miranda, Cass Business School

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

E4: Capital allocation leading practices

This session will present a distillation of leading practices from around the world in the capital cost allocation space.  Specifically we will cover:

(i) allocation of capital costs,

(ii) Away from sole reliance on extreme tail metrics to a blend of short, medium and long return period metrics,

(iii) Integrate explicit, formal statements of risk preference,

(iv) Design the capital allocation process based on performance criteria, and

(v) Create an operational buffer between the capital model and the field.

Andrew Cox and Don Mango, Guy Carpenter

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

E5: Is your cat model a dog?

Models of severe and infrequent catastrophic events involve many parameters, model choices and judgemental inputs. While one model may pass a battery of validation tests, other models might also pass the same tests but with different implications for large losses.

Andrew Smith and Ian Cook demonstrate practical ways to quantify the uncertainty in catastrophe models using statistical methods, benchmarking and stress tests. Come to this workshop to discuss the implications for pricing, capital allocation and reinsurance programme design.

Ian Cook and Andrew Smith, Deloitte

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

E6: How technology is changing the face of commercial lines pricing

We will be discussing examples of where and how technology is increasing pricing and portfolio management sophistication in commercial lines insurance. This includes the use of external data, automated data feeds, MI dashboards and external models.

Hannes van Rensburg, Dynamo Analytics

Level: Technical - introductory.

 

E7: Lloyd's annual update

General Lloyd’s update plus information on syndicate reserves, syndicate capital and central capital model (2012 saw a successful transition to using Solvency II models and balance sheets in the capital setting at Lloyd’s (but still under the ICAS regime).

The outcomes from this exercise produced a number of interesting statistics and the process is evolving even further. Market conditions have been challenging recently which impacts operating conditions but this is offset to some extent by the underlying development on older years and a positive effect on the reserving cycle.

Recent years have also been significantly impacted by catastrophes and it will be interesting to see if 2013 bucks this trend and how the previous losses are running off. Lloyd’s own internal model (the LIM) is fully in use and embedded into Lloyd’s central risk structure including feeding Lloyd’s central ORSA).

Henry Johnson, Tracey Moore, Eric Pizarro and Karen Seidel, Lloyd's

Level: Technical - some previous knowledge required.

 

E8: TORP update: AvE – curse or blessing?

We will be presenting the results of this year’s working party.  The focus will be in the use and misuse of actual vs. expected techniques in a reserving context, but we will also touch on the aspirational aims of the wider reserving process and be looking for audience input on where we should focus in the coming year

Neil Bruce, Travelers Syndicate Management and other members of the working party

Level: Introductory.

 

E9: Capital modelling - what you can learn from other professions

What can other disciplines teach us about capital modelling? What are the questions that underwriters want answered by the capital model? What do Chief Risk Officers really want to know from the model? What can software developers teach us about the way that we approach building capital models?

This talk covers some of the key lessons over many years of practical in-house and consulting experience that we wish we had learned earlier.  Many of these came from discussions with non-capital modellers.

Charl Cronje and Richard Holloway, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

Level: Technical - introductory

 

E10: PPO Working Party - Constructing impaired life mortality tables and severe injury classification

Over 70% of PPO claims relate to brain injuries and 20% to spinal injuries. 

The PPO Working Party is undertaking research into the little understood area of impaired lives resulting from brain and spinal injury following a severe trauma.  This workshop will present our findings on Australian and New Zealand RTA mortality data and compare these against mortality analysis from our own PPO industry survey. 

We will also be discussing our project to create a set of tables based on available UK medical records which are dependent on the severity of the injuries.  There is considerable call in the insurance industry for such analysis to help pricing, reserving and capital modelling and we are attempting to fill this gap.  We also hope to encourage insurers to improve their injury classification methods so that they can eventually use these tables.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that such a UK study has been attempted!

Nick Betteridge, Canopius Managing Agency Ltd and Sarah MacDonnell, Towers Watson

Level: Non technical - introductory.

 

E11: 110 years of Ruin Theory:  How can it help risk management today?

Should we get more reinsurance or more capital?  How do shareholders benefit from diversification?  Since Filip Lundberg’s 1903 thesis on Ruin Theory, there has been great research interest to build on his work.  This workshop reports on a joint practitioner-academia study that explores how recent progress in Ruin Theory could help to give quantitative flavour to modern risk management questions.

Corina Constantinescu, University of Liverpool and Joseph Lo, Aspen

Level:  No previous knowledge required