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Faculty Research Groups

David Hare (tel: 0131 245 0632, e-mail: David_Hare@standardlife.com).

Faculty Solvency II Research Group - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Mark Willder
Other members:
Michael Aitchison, Anne Baxter, Carole Dick, Peng Jin, Susan Morgan, Callum Stuart

Aims and objectives
This group will look at some of the consequences to life insurers of the introduction of the Solvency II regime.

Expected outcome
Presentation at 2008 Life Convention

Glasgow Pensions/Investment Research Group - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: John Dickson
Other members:
Chris Hurry, Christine McDermott, Alan Watson, Iain McLellan, Paul Hamilton, Richard Warden

Aims and objectives
The group is considering a range of issues associated with DC provision, including sufficiency of pension provision, engagement with DC members and pre/post retirement options.

Mortality Research Group - On-going
Two-dimensional mortality data: patterns and projections

Membership
Chair: Stephen Richards
Other members:
John Ellam, Jennifer Hubbard, Joseph Lu, Stephen Makin, Keith Miller

Aims and objectives
The Group has resolved to present a research paper to the Faculty of Actuaries Sessional Meeting in February 2007. The topics covered by this paper will be two-fold:
1. The application of P-splines to the smoothing and projection of the mortality rates of different countries.
2. The improvements by cause of death implied by different P-spline mortality-rate projections.
This second topic seeks to answer one of the questions most often put to the CMIB Projections Working Party. The Group will liaise with the Working Party during the research.

General Insurance Practice Executive Committee

Contact - Peter Stirling (tel: 020 7632 2177, e-mail: peter.stirling@actuaries.org.uk)

Are Actuaries Cautious? - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Lucy O'Brien
Other members:
James Anderson, Yowshern Lau, Julian Leigh, Gary Dunne, Graham Robertson

Aims and objectives
To explore aspects of the psychology of GI actuaries

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Gaming the SCR - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Peter Hinton
Other members:
Martin Cairns, James Toller

Aims and objectives
The standard formula in Solvency II has been described as a one-size fits no-one model. It therefore offers opportunities for arbitrage. The aim of the wp is to explore some of these opportunities.
If there is a public exposure of these opportunities, regulators, analysts and others will be in a better position to counteract anyone seeking to profit improperly from arbitrage opportunities. The work should promote understanding of the standard formula.

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

How thinking on Solvency II can feed into thinking on IFRS 4 - Phase 2 - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Paul Klumpes
Other members:
Martin White, David Sanders, Sarwar Grami, Shailesh Malde, John Charles, Shreyas Shah, Allan Kaufman, Gladys Hosken, Kathryn Morgan, Paul Cook, Enrico Biffis

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Monitoring Casualty Aggregates - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Justyn Harding
Other members:
Matthew Byrne, Andrew D'Arcy, Tomasz Dudek, Chooi Lee, Buu Truong, JB Crozet, Cynthia Yuan, Clare Edler, Ben Gilman, Tony Brook-Taylor

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Non Actuarial Issues for Solvency II and for Actuaries - On- going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Mohammad Khan
Other members:
Chloe Paillot

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Public Domain Roles for GI Actuaries: Schemes of arrangement, part VII transfers and other expert appointments - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: David Hindley
Other members:
Kate Angell, Helen Wilkinson, Chris Short, Dominic Sharp, Edgar Wilson, Karen Newbury, Dan Sykes, Stuart Shepley, Andy Whiting, Darren Michaels

Aims and objectives
To provide a reference source for GI actuaries carrying out public domain roles such as schemes of arrangement, Part VII transfers and other expert appointments

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

R - A practical toolkit for GI Actuaries? - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Alan Chalk

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Solvency II Expressing an opinion on understanding policy and reinsurance adequacy - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Graham Fulcher
Other members:
Frank Chacko, Peter Taylor, Samit Shah, Ajay Chhabra, Catherine Cernesson

Aims and objectives
Discuss latest position with: BAS; FSA; ABI; GI PEC
Then assuming this remains in directive, produce suggestions on what an actuarial opinion on u/w policy and reinsurance adequacy might look like

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Subprime - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Peter Yeates
Other members:
Peter Sondhelm, Gary McInally, Stephen Floyd, Stephen Robertson-Dunn, Sejal Haria, Gaynore Moss

Aims and objectives
Identify how subprime will affect UK non-life/P&C insurers and reinsurers

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

What is a 1 in 200? - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Cameron Heath
Other members:
Gillian James, Mark Cockroft, Andrew Newman, Darren Farr, Alex Marcuson, Emiliano Ruffini, Gladys Hosken

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Winner's Curse - the unmodelled impact of competition? - On- going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Mark Rothwell
Other members:
Steven Loyens, Roberto Malattia, Matthew Spedding, Tony Jordan, Visesh Gosrani, Rob Lowe, James Kelsall, Sylvie Le Delliou, Andrew Goldby, Graham Fulcher, Paula Iencean, Catherine Farnworth, Yves Colomb, Cherry Chan

Aims and objectives
Review literature on winners curse (tendency of business to be won by company most underestimating risk)
Review impact for different:
Products; Markets; Distribution Channels
Look at strategies
Look at impact on pricing and reserving.

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

ASTIN paper (sub group of the Securitisation of Non-Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Andrew Smith, Thomas Wallace

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Basis Risk (sub group of the Securitisation of Non-Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Gillian James, Jean-Bernard Crozet, Cameron Heath, Angela Koller

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Demand and Elasticity Modelling - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: James Tanser
Other members:
John Light, Sophia Mealy, Owen Morris

Aims and objectives
The working party will consider predictive modelling techniques which can be applied to analysing customer behaviour, with particular emphasis on modelling the conversion of new business quotations to policies. Where appropriate, cross selling and up selling will also be considered. Although the analysis will concentrate mainly on personal lines data, the techniques investigated may well have wider applications to both life and non-life insurance. The working party aims to produce a GIRO paper which will:
Provide an introduction to the topic describing the terms used
Summarise the current methodologies used in the market
Summarise possible alternate methodologies identified by a search of available literature
Investigate several methods using agreed methodology to determine the descriptive and predictive power of the methods when applied to actual insurance data
Provide a brief conclusion and highlight areas for further work

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

DIY Asset Models for P&C Companies - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Richard Shaw

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

ERM - On-going (established 2006)
ERM working party 2007
Enterprise risk management from the general insurance actuarial perspective

Membership
Chair: Michael Tripp
Other members:
George Orros, Geoff Perry, Sejal Haria, Kartina Tahir Thompson, Neil Hilary, Kathryn Morgan, Cherry Chan

Aims and objectives
1) completing last year's work. Setting out an overview of what ERM is, how it looks in practice, what some of the issues are, and in effect providing a high level check list or reference document.
2) developing one, or maybe more, case studies describing how to implement a leading ERM framework. Starting from a typical ICA position, practically what to do next, how to plug gaps
3) undertaking a review of literature and creating a short bibliography with brief summaries of key texts.
Our scope will be general insurance, although we will comment on how to link into wider businesses such as banking or life assurance.

Expected outcome
Presentation of sessional paper on 28 April 2008
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Free Market Pricing - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Camilla Bennett
Other members:
Neil Hilary, Declan Lavelle, Liz Michael, Grant Mitchell, Pablo Morales, George Orros, Simon Warsop, Phil Webb, Nathan Williams

Aims and objectives
1. Demonstrate why the profession thinks a free market is the best solution for the provision of insurance
2. Consider areas of market failure
3. Consider how to deal with an upper age limit
4. To coordinate with life and pensions' actuaries as appropriate

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Hazards and opportunities of being a 'Lone Actuary' in a company - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Richard Winter
Other members:
Steve Gardner, Dermot Marron, Graham White

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

History of Securitisation (sub group of the Securitisation of Non- Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Graham Fulcher, David Davies, Melodie Pollet- Villard, Krishna Rajah

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Integrating Pricing with ICA models (GRIP) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Jean-Bernard Crozet
Other members:
James Anderson, Veekash Badal, Matt Byrne, Darren Farr, Nick Moore, Kapil Patel

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Lessons from Sub-prime (sub group of the Securitisation of Non- Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Esmee Robinson, Visesh Gosrani, Henry Johnson, Jun Lin

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Securitisation and Capital Regimes (sub group of the Securitisation of Non-Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Mohammad Khan, Mohamed Afify, Susanne Frisby, Paul Fulcher, Shalin Haria, Kevin O'Donnovan

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Securitisation of Non-Life Insurance - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Graham Fulcher
Other members:
Cormac Bradley, Vasily Busarov, Alifa Charania, David Davies, Shalin Haria, Cameron Heath, Gillian James, Henry Johnson, Mohammad Khan, Angela Koller, Alex Marcuson, John McCrossan, Zameer Mitha, Krishna Rajah, Esmee Robinson, Emiliano Ruffini, Thomas Wallace, Anna Zlateva

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Securitisation of other Non-life Risks (sub group of the Securitisation of Non-Life Insurance Working Party) - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Other members:
Alex Marcuson, Cormac Bradley, Tim James, Emiliano Ruffini, John McCrossan, Zameer Mitha

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Sub Prime Working Party - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Alex Marcuson
Other members:
David Bracewell, Mark Flower, Gurpreet Johal, Jim Mann, Alex Marcuson, Mark McCausland, Richard Shaw, Paul Shedden, Peter Yeates

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

UK Asbestos II - (continuing from 2006-2007)
UK Asbestos II

Membership
Chair: Brian Gravelsons
Other members:
Anita Morton, Graham Sandhouse, Andy Whiting, Robert Brooks, Gregory Overton, Peter Taylor, Dan Beard, Charlie Kefford, Dan Sykes, Patrick Nolan, Stephen Robertson- Dunn, Darren Michaels

Aims and objectives
The following are the outstanding objectives for 2008:
Facilitate a more detailed per claim data collection exercise to enhance the understanding of the current trends identified.
Review the previous working party industry projections and update where appropriate in light of the current trends identified.
Develop relationship with HSE, in particular make available a refresh of the HSE population meso death data, and discuss with HSE potential for additional data items available to help develop trend analysis and projections.
Develop relationship with all relevant parties in respect of the compensation process for asbestos related claims.
Review of other interesting asbestos related developments: impact of various wordings used; development of PL claims; reinsurance implications; recent medical research
Summary paper of developments and implications, aiming for GIRO 2008.

Progress to date
The working party intends to be in existence during 2007 and 2008. The following objectives have already been completed in 2007:
Facilitate a data collection exercise to understand current trends.
Workshop presentation of recent trends, focusing on meso claims and developments since the last paper, and revised industry projections if available, aiming for GIRO 2007.
Develop relationship with HSE.
Review of recent legal developments and potential impact on insurance industry.
Presented at 2008 GIRO Convention

UK Flood Risk/Flood Rating in the Noughties (How much should actuaries allow for UK or European floods?) - On- going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Julian Lowe
Other members:
Simon Black, Nigel Carpenter, Tim Edwards, Wendy Hawes, David Johnson, Steve Patfield, David Sanders, Wendy Seago

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

Variable Capital Loads in Pricing - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Martin Cairns
Other members:
Liz Edwards, Alex Foord, Andrew Ford, Benedict Gilman, Visesh Gosrani, Paul Goodenough, Sie Lau, Peter Maurer, Patrick Nolan, Natasha Regan, Nick Ross, Satyan Sawhney, Richard Skelding, Justin Skinner, James Toller, Buu Trong, Rudi Van Delm, Richard Weston

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2008

General Insurance Reserving Oversight Committee (GIROC)

Contact - Peter Stirling (tel: 020 7632 2177, e-mail: peter.stirling@actuaries.org.uk)

Effectiveness of Reserving Methods Working Party - On-going (established 2006)
Terms of reference

Membership
Chair: Steven Fisher
Other members:
Shreyas Shah, Martin Sykes, Chris Jelfs, Nimish Ruparelia, Rachael Larkin, Tony Goodall, David Payne, Andrew Gray, Richard Winter, Nick Line, Henry Onions, Gary Yeates, Chris Marinan, Rob Barritt, Mary Frances Miller, Derek Newton, Karen Seidel

Implications of the Underwriting and Reserving Cycles for Reserving Working Party - On-going (established 2006)
Terms of reference

Membership
Chair: Ian Hilder
Other members:
Tom Rivers, Mark Rothwell, James Toller, Simon Sheaf

Reserve Uncertainty Working Party - On-going (established 2006)

Membership
Chair: Neil Bruce
Other members:
Stefan Claus, Ian Hinder, Keith Taylor, Liz Prior, Cathy Chen, Tom Wright, Mark Shapland, Gary Dunne, Tejinder Matharu

Reserving: Making Allowances for Changes in Terms and Conditions and Other Coverage Issues Working Party - On-going (established 2006)
Terms of reference

Membership
Chair: Ian Hilder
Other members:
Richard Rodriguez, Matthew Wheatley, Kevin Powell, Cameron Heath, Ben Gilman, Martin Noble

Solvency II Reserving GI ROC - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Kendra Felisky
Other members:
Ayuk Akoh-Arrey, Vincent Robert, Jerome Kirk, Matthew Wheatley

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Understanding the Business (Reserving) - On-going (established 2008)

Membership
Chair: Richard Winter (Chairman pro tem)
Hanna Kam (Chair designate)
Other members:
Adrian Ericsson, Kevin Powell, Paul Grimsey, Malcolm Cleugh, David Arthur, Liz Prior, Nicki Ashbee, Richard Barke, Tony Goodall

Aims and objectives
Identify from experienced actuaries situations where better understanding of business has solved problems
Document a series of case studies
From these identify key issues and trends
How can you understand the potential for latent claims?
Consider what extra information you need and how to get it
What extra complications does working internationally introduce (language, culture, legislation)?
Understand the impact of work done on the business.

Expected outcome
Presentation at GIRO 2009

Health & Care Practice Executive Committee

Contact - Pauline Simpson (tel: 01865 268 237, e-mail: pauline.simpson@actuaries.org.uk)

Actuaries' Panel on Medical Advances - On-going
The impact of mortality and lifestyle on mortality Studying mortality trends: The IMPACT CHD policy model The impact of medical advances and lifestyle on mortality

Membership
Chair: Howard Waters
Other members:
Angus Macdonald, Bill Baker, Tushar Chatterjee, Richard Croxon, Adrian Gallop, Robert Hangartner, Angus Macdonald, David Paul, Brian Ridsdale, Neil Robjohns

Aims and objectives
This project is a partnership between the Actuarial Profession and members of the Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics Department, Heriot-Watt University, for which funding has been awarded from the EPSRC.
It aims to:
Identify medical conditions to be studied (initially coronary heart disease) Review the literature on each condition.
Review the literature on each condition
Identify appropriate data sets.
Build a mathematical/stochastic model of the epidemiology of the condition.
Quantify, either demographically and/or financially, the effects of new treatments or trends relating to the condition.

Expected outcome
Secure funding from EPSRC by December 2003. Recruit research assistant to undertake actuarial modelling skills. Publish academic papers and disseminate findings at conferences.

Progress to date
The APMA’s project on modelling coronary heart disease completed in 2007 and a final report will be submitted to the EPSRC. Findings were presented to the New University of Lisbon, the Profession’s Health and Care Conference, the Bradford Hill Epidemiology Seminar Cambridge, the Department of Health and the University of Piraeus.
The Panel is now progressing with a new RSC-funded study on the use of Herceptin for breast cancer patients.
The APMA’s recent research and the Profession’s Mortality Scoping Study were presented at the Third Sessional Meeting of the Faculty for the 2007/2008 session held at The Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen Street, Edinburgh on 14 January 2008.

Chronic Diseases Working Party - On-going
Investigation of the influence of socio-economic status on morbidity status for dread and chronic diseases

Membership
Chair: Joanne Alder
Other members:
Les Mayhew, Simon Moody, Richard Morris, Rajeev Shah

Critical Illness Trends Working Party - On-going
Trends in critical illness risk costs (slides)
Risk factors in insured lives mortality and critical illness experience (slides)
Current Issues in Critical Illness seminar papers (2004)
Current Issues in Critical Illness seminar papers (2005)
Current Issues in Critical Illness seminar papers (2006)

Membership
Chair: Neil Robjohns
Other members:
Dr Richard Croxon, Azim Dinani, Sue Elliott, Hamis Gallway, Richard Morris, Scott Reid, Joanne Wells

Aims and objectives
To examine underlying trends in the factors influencing UK insured CI claims rates and from these to assess:
1) the historic trend in incidence and death rates for the major critical illnesses and
2) any pointers for future trends in stand alone and accelerated CI.

Expected outcome
To produce SIAS paper

Progress to date
Presented at Health Conference 2001, 2002 and 2003
2 articles published in The Actuary
Annual Critical Illness seminars since 2004

Damages Interest Group - On-going
From lump sums to periodic payments and beyond: Conference 2005

Membership
Chair: Robert Owen
Other members:
Anthony Carus, Adrian Gallop, Chinu Patel, John Pollock, Anthony Silverman, Stuart Wilkinson

Aims and objectives
To respond to government proposals to develop income awards and other forms of structured settlements in addition to lump sum awards for personal injuries.
To advance the application of actuarial techniques to the calculation of long standing income awards in judicial settlements.
More information about the Damages Interest Group

Expected outcome
Articles/seminars

Progress to date
Conference March 2007.

Environmental Research Interest Group - On-going
Impacts of climate change on financial institutions’ medium to long term assets and liabilities (SIAS paper, 2005)
Predicting future climate change: lessons from palaeoclimatology (2007)
Other information

Membership
Chair: Nick Silver (Chairman)
Other members:
Finn Clawson, Jean-Bernard Crozet, Colin Czapiewski, Anthony Day, Paul Dickinson, Rebecca Dixon, Andrew Dlugolecki, Tanya Fick, Heeral Gudka, Stephan Harrison, Vanessa Hodge, Keith Lawrence, Trevor Maynard, Paul Meins, Paul Pritchard, Jamie Read, David Rochester, David Sanders, Neelish Tiwari, Paul Warren

Aims and objectives
To identify and research areas in which actuaries can become, or will need to become, involved in environmental issues.
To identify environmental factors connected to fields in which actuaries are already engaged, the potential of environmental change on these areas, and the factors that actuaries should consider when giving advice.
More information about the Environmental Research Interest Group

Expected outcome
To produce articles for The Actuary, raise awareness of the impact of environmental issues upon actuarial science.

Progress to date
A SIAS Paper has been produced on the Impact of Climate Change Upon Financial Institutions' Medium To Long Term Assets and Liabilities.
Funding agreed for production of research document on 'Using palaeoclimatology to predict future climate change'

Health & Care Reserving Working Party - On-going (established 2006)
Healthcare reserving survey initial results

Membership
Chair: Sheila Anstead
Other members:
Joanne Alder, Chris Coote, Neil Hilary, Andy Chan, Sue Elliott - consultant

Aims and objectives
Scope:
To study the reserving practices of different firms with reference to the health & care insurance products – namely critical illness (stand alone and accelerated), income protection, private medical insurance (including medical expenses and hospital cash) – with a view to determine good business practice in health & care reserving. Long-term care will be included among the products studied only if it is an interlocking product.
Territory will be UK only (at least initially) and it will cover both individual and group risk.
Issues:
The issues to be considered by the working party will include, among others:
The role of ICAs / implications for ICAs in reserving in relation to preparing for Solvency II
PS06/14 implications
Reserving methodology, for example deterministic versus stochastic
The impact of options and guarantees by product (for example, Waiver of Premiums, buy-back for accelerated CI
Allowance for data issues
FSA regulatory oversight (for example reserving and capital).

Healthcare insurance-treating customers fairly (TCF) - On-going

Membership
Other members:
Geoff Brown, Peter Gatenby, Michael Moliver, George Orros

Aims and objectives
This is a development of the Cash vs Care Working Party reported in the Annual Research Report 2003. Its objectives are:
To focus on the care aspects of healthcare insurance products (short- and long-term)
To identify different definitions of TCF among different parties to healthcare insurance products
To consider the social policy implications of these products.

Expected outcome
To be decided

Income Protection Working Party - isolating occupational, regional and socio-economic influences - On-going (established 2004)

Membership
Chair: Darshan Singh
Other members:
Johann Du Toit, Neil Meldrum, Anna Spender, Shannon Stainwright, Keith Woolnough

Aims and objectives
To deepen the actuarial profession's understanding of risk by investigating the occupational, socio-economic and geographical influences on Income Protection business.
Analyse quantitatively as much as possible using a variety of data sources.
Thorough research of publications from the UK and overseas that might be relevant.
Take into account as far as possible overlaps with other rating factors for IP e.g. gender.

Expected outcome
We aim to produce a paper and presentation for the 2007 Healthcare Conference.
We hope to complete the bulk of the work for this in Q4 2006.

Progress to date
LFS dataset purchased

Isolating the occupation, regional and socio-economic influences - On-going

Membership
Chair: Bill Baker
Other members:
Keith Woolnough, Carl Northover, Neil Meldrum, Jamie Marshall

Pandemics Working Party - On-going (established 2006)

Membership
Chair: Mike Urmston
Other members:
Joanne Alder, Ross Ainslie, Clayton Balkind, Duncan Heald, Deepak Jobanputra, Garth Lane, Chris Lewis, Joseph Lu, Brett McWilliam, David Parmee, Richard Patrick, Cheryl Russell, John P Smith, Dave Smith, Russell Ward, Keith Woolnough

Aims and objectives
1. Identify the key drivers shaping influenza pandemics in the 20th and 21st centuries
2. Consider the implications of influenza pandemics for mortality, morbidity and financial services, including the pensions and insurance industry, in the early 21st Century
3. Review publications in order to identify important and original research and place their citation details on the proposed pandemics website
4. Bring out the underlying assumptions behind different models and the approaches taken by different organisations
5. Communicate the uncertainty underlying these models and define the range of uncertainty underlying different scenarios
6. Contribute to the wider discussion about influenza pandemics among interested parties by holding and attending seminars and drafting papers.

Expected outcome
Produce Working Party reports for the profession which serve as an initial attempt to structure the overall project
Hold a seminar for the profession
Survey the relevant literature and produce a cross-referenced index of publications and internet links
Construct a webpage on the profession’s website that provides actuarial information on influenza pandemics

UK Vaccination Programme - Risk and Reward - On-going
UK vaccination programme: risk and reward (2001 slides)
The UK vaccination programme - risk and reward (2003 SIAS paper)
UK vaccination programme: risk and reward (2003 slides)

Membership
Chair: Monica Cornall
Other members:
Margaret Chan, Jan Sparks

Aims and objectives
To identify what actuaries can contribute to the study of the balance of risks (probability of experiencing adverse effect of vaccination versus risk of contracting illness by refusing vaccination) associated with vaccination programmes.
To investigate, and hence stimulate informed debate and possible further studies on the balance between risk and reward in the current UK vaccination programme from an independently informed viewpoint. We do not aim to carry out any new investigations or studies but to interpret and assimilate existing data and studies. As part of our fact-finding we will try to discover whether any organisation currently monitors the trade-off between risk and reward and what mathematical or statistical models are used.

Progress to date
The Working Party has been in existence since 2001.
Workshops at 2001 and 2003 Health & Care Conferences 'UK Vaccination Programme: Risk and Reward' SIAS Paper.

Life Practice Executive Committee

Contact - Pauline Simpson (tel: 01865 268 237, e-mail: pauline.simpson@actuaries.org.uk)

Actuarial Processes and Controls - On-going

Membership
Chair: Richard Care
Other members:
Richard Budden, Matt Cocke, David Ford, Tim Hartley, John Heenan, Dave Hobbs, Anthony Lee, Mark McCarthy, Sanjeev Pujari, Dominic Veney, Nick Watkins

Aims and objectives
To highlight key risks associated with production of actuarial reported figures
To consider how those key risks might vary between company/type of business
To develop best practice controls, focussing upon the actuarial control aspects

Expected outcome
A paper on best practice

Progress to date
Recently conducted a survey of insurers

Benchmarking for stochastic models - On-going (established 2007)

Membership
Chair: Ralph Frankland
Other members:
Kieran Barnes, Matthew Brownlie, David Dulloway, Andy Holtham, Ian Marshall, Andrew Smith, Craig Turnbull

Aims and objectives
To gain a better and wider understanding of the various methodologies that could be used for developing benchmark figures, including the advantages and disadvantages of each
To develop robust values for a variety of tables

Expected outcome
Sessional paper for presentation to the Institute on 3 November 2008 and the Faculty on 17 November 2008

Life ICA - Non-linearity, scenario testing and diversification issues in life insurance ICA's - On-going

Membership
Chair: Trevor Jones
Other members:
Tewdar Ansell, David Bird, Bryan Blunt, Andy Cope, Rob Green, Greg Pinell, Ed Rayfield, Darren Thorne

Aims and objectives
Building upon the work of the Life ICA working party, to conduct an overview of methods currently used to:
Determine diversification benefits
Allow for the impact of non-linearity
Using scenario testing to justify the diversification of benefits assumed
Consider any risks presented by the effects of a significant drop in the stock market

Expected outcome
A discussion paper suggesting a framework for best practice.

Life Office Taxation Working Party - On-going
CP207 – Tax implications of the proposals for treating with-profits policyholders fairly
Life Office Taxation Working Party report
Other information

Membership
Chair: Paul Turnbull
Other members:
Trevor Fannin, Steve Jones, Matthew Little, Andrew Rendall, Matthew Taylor

Aims and objectives
To keep the profession informed of developments in the field of Life Office Taxation.
1) To keep abreast of new developments
2) To analyse their impact
3) To inform the profession as appropriate
4) As a subsidiary objective, to consider the impact of some of the more complex aspects of UK life office taxation on actuarial work.

Expected outcome
Articles on different aspects of life office taxation in The Actuary magazine.

Progress to date
Sessions at 2000, 2001 & 2004 Life Conventions; a number of articles and columns published in The Actuary.

Management Actions in the context of realistic balance sheets - On-going
Management actions: myth or reality? (slides)

Membership
Chair: Martin Pike
Other members:
Tim Bunch, Adrian Fuller, Jonathan Pears, Ben Rowe, Matthew Lee, Gavin Coates, Iain Baker

Aims and objectives
To consider the consequences of different management actions and the advantages and disadvantages that each action has on future management of with-profits funds

Expected outcome
SIAS paper March 2007

Progress to date
Session at 2006 Life Convention

Reassurance of Mortality and Morbidity in the UK Market - On- going

Membership
Chair: Paul Murray
Other members:
Andy Chan, Andrew Gilchrist, Christopher Hancorn, Jamie Leitch, Joanne Wells, John Williamson

Aims and objectives
To investigate:
Key drivers for reinsurance
Correlation of risk within a reinsurance office
Effectiveness of credit derivatives in offsetting the risk of default
The implications for life companies’ professional guidance

Expected outcome
Session at the 2008 Life Convention

Underwriting - On-going

Membership
Chair: Jason Hurley
Other members:
tbc

Aims and objectives
To identify and quantify the risks and benefits of:
evidence based ratings and how these can be shown to be fair and robust
the impact on claims experience of changes in the underwriting process
the impact of the use of technology in underwriting
claims declined due to non disclosure
the changing regulatory regime