Momentum Conference 2011: Review of Workshop D1: Why you will live to 100 (or not)

How are improvements improving?

Future longevity improvements remain a hot topic. What research is being done that will contribute or continue to contribute to future assumptions?

Will life expectancy improve ad infinitum or is there a natural limit? the Projectionist view versus the Realist.  There are many factors that could work together to impact this.

Most improvements are due to cheaper medication and general changes in people’s risk behaviour, but it is deeper than that.

Many genetic conditions have had the responsible genes identified.  Gene therapy and stem cell therapy are in their infancy but developing.  We’re some way from a GATTACA-type scenario, but the cost of decoding an individual’s genome, and thus detecting these genes and initiating treatment, has fallen dramatically.

Medication continues to improve for individual conditions. Whilst most improve the quality and length of life for the sufferer, not all have significant improvements or can be used by all due to cost or side-effect reasons.The slides highlighted the increase in obesity in the US – what effect may this have on US life expectancy?  - and showed images of families around the world stood soberly alongside their weekly shopping. The proportion of greens to snacks varied wildly – so longevity will surely vary between countries too.

Advances in medicine mean patient and doctor knowledge is asymmetric.  Doctors need to develop the ‘patient advocate’ role, to educate on lifestyle choices and treatment options.What should those exposed to longevity risk may consider the future.  There is not yet a well-defined market for such risk.  The picture of the future is unclear. Should they transfer the risk? Invest in further research? Wait and see?

All in all, a very useful session that helped my own understanding of the science behind improvements, setting me thinking about what we may see in the future.

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