CMI Working paper 38. A prototype mortality projections model: Part one - an outline of the proposed approach

Document description

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has become concerned about the continuing widespread use of the „interim cohort‟ mortality projections. These projections do not take account of experience data published after 1999 and – as a result – have become increasingly out-of-date.

A Working Party was therefore established to develop a projection model which:

• reflects the latest experience on trends in mortality;
• is relatively straightforward to understand and describe;
• allows users the flexibility to modify projections to suit their own views and purpose;
• and can be regularly updated over time to reflect emerging experience.

A prototype model has been published for consultation to coincide with the release of this paper.