CMI Working Paper 158

Note: This working paper uses data for a public sector pension scheme in 2013-2019 which is now known to be incorrect. We have not updated the working paper, but we have prepared a note that describes the nature of the incorrect data and the impact on CMI analyses so that Subscribers can consider whether to take any action.

Note: This working paper uses data for a public sector pension scheme in 2012-2016 which is now known to be incorrect. We have not updated the working paper, but we have prepared a note that describes the nature of the incorrect data and the impact on CMI analyses so that Subscribers can consider whether to take any action.

CMI Working Paper 158 was published in November 2021. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2021, covering the period 2013 to 2020. Much of the paper is in a similar format to recent annual experience analyses. However, it includes a more detailed analysis of mortality in 2020 in light of the pandemic, including monthly analysis and comparison to the general population.

The paper compares the mortality experience for this dataset against the unadjusted "S3" Series tables and the "S3" Series tables projected with the CMI Mortality Projections Model (CMI_2020). Results are provided for the various pensioner categories, by calendar year and split into pension amount bands. 

The analysis shows that:

• Mortality in the 2013-2020 dataset is slightly lighter than the unadjusted “S3” Series tables on a lives-weighted basis but heavier than the “S3” tables on an amounts-weighted basis.
• For most groups, lives-weighted mortality fell within a fairly narrow range from 2013 to 2018, but was markedly lower in 2019 and higher in 2020. 
• Mortality shows a sharp peak in April 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the increase in mortality between 2019 and 2020 appears to be lower for the SAPS dataset than in the general population. The volume of data for 2020 is lower than earlier years, due to the triennial nature of data submissions. This means that care should be taken when looking at figures presented for this year in isolation, particularly when broken down (for example, by calendar month).

Summary files of the data

Files used in the analysis are available below. Please note that these files have been made available on the understanding that:

• although the CMI has made reasonable attempts to validate the data, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and the CMI accepts no liability for its use
• any published comment or analysis should acknowledge the CMI as the source of the data.

The data is available to download as a zip file. Data for the tables and charts in the report can be found in “CMI Working Paper 158 Data for Tables and Charts v02 20-06-2022xlsx”. In addition, exposed to risk and death data by individual age and year are published for Pensioners and Dependants – these can be found in the other two spreadsheets included in the zip file.