Papers and reports

The address is a journey in three parts. The first part describes the world scene in the last century when the Institute was founded and traces the development of actuarial work to the present day. The current UK pension scene is then broadly reviewed and the journey ends with vistas of the future. The concentration of actuarial work towards life assurance and pensions is attributed to meeting the needs of the past and encouragement is given to the urgent extension of the work of the profession into wider fields.

The address is a journey in three parts. The first part describes the world scene in the last century when the Institute was founded and traces the development of actuarial work to the present day. The current UK pension scene is then broadly reviewed and the journey ends with vistas of the future. The concentration of actuarial work towards life assurance and pensions is attributed to meeting the needs of the past and encouragement is given to the urgent extension of the work of the profession into wider fields.

The address is a journey in three parts. The first part describes the world scene in the last century when the Institute was founded and traces the development of actuarial work to the present day. The current UK pension scene is then broadly reviewed and the journey ends with vistas of the future. The concentration of actuarial work towards life assurance and pensions is attributed to meeting the needs of the past and encouragement is given to the urgent extension of the work of the profession into wider fields.

The address is a journey in three parts. The first part describes the world scene in the last century when the Institute was founded and traces the development of actuarial work to the present day. The current UK pension scene is then broadly reviewed and the journey ends with vistas of the future. The concentration of actuarial work towards life assurance and pensions is attributed to meeting the needs of the past and encouragement is given to the urgent extension of the work of the profession into wider fields.

The paper gives details of statistical modelling techniques which can be used to estimate risk and office premiums from past claims data. The methods described allow premiums to be estimated for any combination of rating factors, and produce standard errors of the risk premium. The statistical package GLIM is used for analysing claims experience, and GLIM terminology is used and explained throughout the paper. Arguments are put forward for modelling frequency and severity separately for different claim types.

The theme of this paper is that life office valuation can be based on an analysis of the characteristics of the individual cash flows which form the net cash flow of an office. These cash flows may be compared with the income and gains derived from traded securities such as equities and gilts in order to assess their values. Standard asset pricing models of modern portfolio theory enable one to allow for lapse, mortality and other risks.