Papers and reports

This paper presents the results of research into the marketing of the actuarial profession including a SWOT analysis, public awareness and image of the profession amongst target groups (general public, undergraduates, journalists, company directors, pension scheme trustees and insurance intermediaries), and the desire to allocate more resources to the profession’s public awareness and image.

The current state of knowledge on the epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS is reviewed, with extensive references to the medical literature. The particular focus is on those aspects of the epidemiology of HIV infection which are of interest in the formulation of models for projecting the future spread of the virus and its impact in terms of numbers of cases of AIDS and deaths from AIDS.

The paper addresses the problem of estimating future claim payments from the ‘run-off’ of past claim payments. A model of the claim payment process is postulated. Results from risk theory are applied to give a model for the incremental paid claims data by development period. A fitting method is developed which takes account of the error structure of the data implied by the underlying model of the claim payment process. The application of a similar method to incremental incurred data is considered. A numerical example is given.

The paper reviews the mathematical models of transmission of infection that have been put forward for representing the spread of HIV infection and AIDS. It describes and compares the main models that have been proposed and thereby provides some guidance on how such models might be constructed and utilised.