Papers and reports

The paper comments on the estimation and sensitivity of the retail price inflation component of the stochastic financial model proposed by Professor Wilkie. Statistical tests provide evidence of non-independence and non-normality of residuals, suggesting non-linearity. However, it is noted that the model is most sensitive to the assumption of long-term mean inflation.

In AIDS Bulletins Nos. 1-4 the Institute of Actuaries AIDS Working Party presented projections of HIV infection and AIDS based on a model developed by Wilkie. This paper explores the sensitivity of those projections to the various different assumptions which have to be made and presents results on a number of alternative sets of assumptions.

This note considers the mortality table functions, and shows that the usual formulae hold under less restrictive assumptions than those usually made. The foundations of the theory of multiple-decrement tables are also considered, in the context of probability theory.

The ‘law of mortality’ proposed by Heligman and Pollard is compared with the law of Gompertz and with English Life Table No.14. Some new mathematical results are derived, including specific equations for the curve of deaths. Some numerical illustrations are given.

This note continues a regular series on mortality rates in Great Britain, showing the mortality experienced in each age-group in 1988 and comparing this for broad age-groups, on a standardised basis, with mortality in earlier years.