What age definition is used for mortality rates in the CMI tables?

The CMI uses the standard definition of q(x) in its tables; that is q(x) is the probability that a life aged exactly x will die in the next year ie, before attaining exact age x+1. Similarly, q(x+.5) is applicable from exact age x+.5 to exact age x+1.5. This notation is described in most standard texts on the subject, eg, page 8 of Life Contingencies by Alistair Neill. For the avoidance of doubt, the age definition in the tables is not next, nearest or last but exact.

Where do I find published mortality tables?

  • The 00 series base mortality tables were published in CMI Working papers 21 and 22.
  • In 2002, an interim basis for adjusting the 92 series mortality projections was published in CMI Working paper 1
  • The 92 series base mortality tables and projections were published in CMI Report 17.
  • The 80 series base mortality tables and projections were published in CMI Report 10.
  • Earlier mortality tables were published in various printed volumes which are not available electronically.
  • All published CMI base mortality tables are available in Excel format. 

How are joint life cases treated?

Joint life cases are treated as a single life that is in force in both the male and female investigations. When the first life dies it is treated as a death in that investigation. The second life then exits from the other investigation. The exposed to risks for the two lives are the same except in the last year where the death is exposed for a full year and the other life is exposed for half a year.

The 00 series tables are described as giving mortality rates applicable to the calendar year 2000 - but at what exact point in 2000 do they apply?

For the 00 series tables, the value of qx applies on average to a life attaining age x in the middle (i.e. midnight between 30 June and 1 July) of 2000 and gives the probability of death before attainment of age x+1 in the middle of 2001. The 'base' year for these tables is thus 2000. Similar comments apply to the 92 series (mid-1992 to mid-1993) and the 80 series (mid-1980 to mid-1981).

Why are the exposed to risks for joint life cases so different for males and females in the smoker investigations?

One life may be a smoker and the other a non-smoker. This means that the smoker and non-smoker exposed to risks must be aggregated before the male and female exposed to risks are compared. (Ref: CMI Report 19, 105)

I am unable to reproduce the CMI results. When I multiply the exposed to risk at age x by the relevant mortality rate qx the expected number of deaths I calculate differs from the CMI’s figure. Why is this?

The CMI analyses use an initial exposed to risk and an age definition of age nearest. This means that lives are exposed from age x–½ to x+½. Since the mortality rate q applies as at the start of that year of age, qx–½ is used.

Can you provide an analysis of the temporary assurance investigation by ‘amounts’ as well as ‘lives’?

No. ‘Amounts’ data is currently only collected for the immediate annuitant and life office pensioner investigations. For all other investigations, including temporary and permanent assurances, we only have information on the number of policies. However, work is currently being undertaken to switch to a per-policy submission method for the mortality investigation, and this will enable us to carry out more detailed analyses. Find out more on the Per-policy data submission FAQs page.

Can you provide information on the correlation between the mortality experience and size of policy for the annuitant and pensioner investigations?

No. All data we receive is in an aggregated census format - we do not have details of individual policies. However, work is currently being undertaken to switch to a per-policy submission method for the mortality investigation, and this will enable us to carry out more detailed analyses.  Find out more on the Per-policy data submission FAQs page.

Can you provide any information on mortality experience broken down by occupation / socio-economic group / geographical location / cause / other?

No. We have no information on the make-up of the lives comprising the data, other than that they are all holders of policies with UK insurance companies. An investigation into mortality by cause of death used to be carried out, but this was discontinued in 1995. More information will become available once per-policy data collection is in place.

Can you suggest other possible sources of UK mortality information?

How should stakeholder pension plans be treated for data submission purposes?

Personal stakeholder pensions should be included in the same data return as for personal pensions data ie, investigation 22 for polices in deferment and investigation 24 for policies in payment. Currently there is no investigation for group stakeholder arrangements.

How will the reporting of annuities in payment be affected by pensions sharing on divorce?

Where the annuity record has been split so that both annuities are being recorded then the member’s pension can be recorded in the normal way (though at a reduced amount), and the ex-spouse’s policy should also be recorded as another active member (investigation 31 or 33). The point is that the spouse investigation (investigation 34) is recording the mortality of spouses after the death of their partner and the divorced spouse record should not be included in that investigation.

In the event of an office’s restructuring, for example through mergers, demutualisations or other transfers of business, should separate returns still be made for the original office numbers or should these be combined?

Provided the CMI is notified as to any changes in grouping, the way that policies are grouped is really a matter for the companies involved. The CMI aggregates the data prior to wider publication. Our main concern is to make sure that, overall, we collect as much accurate data as possible. At the company level, the main users of the data split are the offices themselves. This is reflected in the office specific reports produced for each office, and so if an office wishes to track the experience of each portfolio separately then it should continue to return data in the original way using the original office numbers.

What table is recommended for [the particular experience I am looking at]?

It is down to each individual actuary to choose the mortality table, and any adjustments to it, for the particular experience in question. We cannot “recommend” a table to be used.

What factors drive future movements in mortality improvements?

Possible factors include medical advances, lifestyle changes, etc. but unfortunately the CMI does not have information available.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • The Great Risk Transfer – Breakfast briefing and launch event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    31 January 2019

    Spaces available

    Launch of the IFoA’s 2020 thought leadership campaign The Great Risk Transfer. The campaign will examine the trend of the transfer of risk from institutions to individuals, and how people can be better equipped to manage the financial risks they now face. At this breakfast event the IFoA will launch a call for evidence on this topic.

  • Sessional Meeting - Silent Cyber Assessment Framework

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    9 December 2019

    Spaces available

    The (re)insurance industry is faced with a growing risk related to the development of information technology (IT). This growth is creating an increasingly digitally interconnected world with more and more dependence being placed on IT systems to manage processes. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.

  • CPD Member Event in Shanghai, China

    Function Room, F39, S1 Fuson Group, the Bund Finance Centre, No.600 Zhongshang East 2nd Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai Chinese address:BFC外滩国际金融金融中心,S1复星集团,39层报告厅,上海中山东二路600号
    9 December 2019

    Spaces available

    The IFoA’s President-elect Tan Suee Chieh will visit Shanghai. We will host CPD and Awards Presenting event on Monday 9 December 2019. The event is part of Mr Tan’s first presidential trip to China.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (10 December 2019)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ  
    10 December 2019

    Spaces available

    This event will be of interest to students and recently qualified actuaries.

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020.  The content and discussion at this session is particularly tailored to actuarial students and newly qualified actuaries working in any area and the format is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions with your peers.

  • IFoA Joint Member Event with the Sunshine Insurance Group, Beijing China

    Room TBC, Kuntai International Plaza, No.12, Chaowai Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 地址:会议室待定,北京市朝阳区朝外大街乙12号1号楼昆泰国际大厦
    12 December 2019

    Spaces available

    The IFoA’s President-elect Tan Suee Chieh will visit Beijing. We will co-host CPD and Awards Presenting event with the Sunshine Insurance Group on Thursday 12 December 2019. The event is part of Mr Tan’s first presidential trip to China.

  • ARC Sessional Research Event: Drivers of Mortality - Risk Factors and Inequality

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    6 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The authors will focus on a large dataset obtained from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) and related sources. Data are available at the level of Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) – small geographical areas with, typically, 1000-2000 residents and include death counts, exposures and a significant number of socio-economic variables including the index of multiple deprivation (IMD).

  • SIAS Event: My Journey to Data Science, Big Data and AI

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    7 January 2020

    Spaces available

    Patrick Lee is an actuary who has made the transition to working in software architecture and artificial intelligence (AI). He holds Microsoft Professional qualifications in Data Science, Big Data and AI and is currently working towards a DevOps (the automation of software testing and deployment) qualification. He is a member of the IFoA Council and is also President of the Wessex Actuarial Society. He is also a member of the IFoA and the RSS's joint Data Science Focus Group and will talk on the ethical use of AI. 

  • Spaces available

    This presentation covers the detail for how the matching adjustment is calculated. A small simple example spreadsheet is provided and discussed in detail.

    For actuaries wanting to get more involved with the matching adjustment, this is the opportunity to get a detailed description of the mechanics involved. This includes cashflows derisking, PRA tests as well as hypothecation.

    The presentation is provided by James Sharpe who has worked on a number of matching adjustment calculations with several firms.

  • IFoA Volunteer Recognition Reception

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK
    15 January 2020

    Spaces available

    As a thank you to all our Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) volunteers, you are invited to join us at Staple Inn Hall, for an evening of drinks, canapes and networking, in London.

    IFoA President, John Taylor, will be attending and will make a speech

    If you support the IFoA as a volunteer (member or non-member), or in any other role, and you are going to be in London on 15 January, please book your place and join us at this reception.

     

  • Sessional Meeting - Operational Risk Dependencies

    Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh 9 Queen St Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    20 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. One of the key challenges in modelling operational risk is the modelling of dependencies between operational risks, and between operational and non-operational risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. Their paper seeks to assist in this regard, and help develop good practice in setting assumptions and modelling operational risk dependencies. 

  • KSS event in Glasgow: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson, Glasgow 20 Waterloo St, Glasgow
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Stirling: Public Sector Pensions

    M&G Prudential, Stirling Craigforth Campus, Stirling
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Edinburgh: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson 1, Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (11 February 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    11 February 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    24 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    25 February 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Spring Lecture 2020, Edinburgh - Vicky Pryce

    Assembly Rooms, 54 George St, Edinburgh EH2 2LR
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy?

    Please join us on 25 March 2020 for our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. 

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur

    CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    24-25 June 2020
    Spaces available

    The sixth annual Asia Conference once again offers a prestigious line-up of home and international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia. This year's conference in Kuala Lumpur will be hosted by Tan Suee Chieh, IFoA’s first Asian President. He will also make his Presidential address at this conference and will expand on the important elements of IFoA’s new strategy. 

    Additionally, this landmark conference will showcase how the IFoA is reinventing itself to support its members to succeed and thrive in a digital age, within traditional businesses and beyond, as a global organisation. 

    Not to be missed by international industry players, opinion formers, academic and industry leaders, actuaries and non-actuaries.