What age definition is used for mortality rates in the CMI tables?
The CMI uses the standard definition of q(x) in its tables; that is q(x) is the probability that a life aged exactly x will die in the next year ie, before attaining exact age x+1. Similarly, q(x+.5) is applicable from exact age x+.5 to exact age x+1.5. This notation is described in most standard texts on the subject, eg, page 8 of Life Contingencies by Alistair Neill. For the avoidance of doubt, the age definition in the tables is not next, nearest or last but exact.
Where do I find published mortality tables?
- The 00 series base mortality tables were published in CMI Working papers 21 and 22.
- In 2002, an interim basis for adjusting the 92 series mortality projections was published in CMI Working paper 1.
- The 92 series base mortality tables and projections were published in CMI Report 17.
- The 80 series base mortality tables and projections were published in CMI Report 10.
- Earlier mortality tables were published in various printed volumes which are not available electronically.
- All published CMI base mortality tables are available in Excel format.
How are joint life cases treated?
Joint life cases are treated as a single life that is in force in both the male and female investigations. When the first life dies it is treated as a death in that investigation. The second life then exits from the other investigation. The exposed to risks for the two lives are the same except in the last year where the death is exposed for a full year and the other life is exposed for half a year.
The 00 series tables are described as giving mortality rates applicable to the calendar year 2000 - but at what exact point in 2000 do they apply?
For the 00 series tables, the value of qx applies on average to a life attaining age x in the middle (i.e. midnight between 30 June and 1 July) of 2000 and gives the probability of death before attainment of age x+1 in the middle of 2001. The 'base' year for these tables is thus 2000. Similar comments apply to the 92 series (mid-1992 to mid-1993) and the 80 series (mid-1980 to mid-1981).
Why are the exposed to risks for joint life cases so different for males and females in the smoker investigations?
One life may be a smoker and the other a non-smoker. This means that the smoker and non-smoker exposed to risks must be aggregated before the male and female exposed to risks are compared. (Ref: CMI Report 19, 105)
I am unable to reproduce the CMI results. When I multiply the exposed to risk at age x by the relevant mortality rate qx the expected number of deaths I calculate differs from the CMI’s figure. Why is this?
The CMI analyses use an initial exposed to risk and an age definition of age nearest. This means that lives are exposed from age x–½ to x+½. Since the mortality rate q applies as at the start of that year of age, qx–½ is used.
Can you provide an analysis of the temporary assurance investigation by ‘amounts’ as well as ‘lives’?
No. ‘Amounts’ data is currently only collected for the immediate annuitant and life office pensioner investigations. For all other investigations, including temporary and permanent assurances, we only have information on the number of policies. However, work is currently being undertaken to switch to a per-policy submission method for the mortality investigation, and this will enable us to carry out more detailed analyses. Find out more on the Per-policy data submission FAQs page.
Can you provide information on the correlation between the mortality experience and size of policy for the annuitant and pensioner investigations?
No. All data we receive is in an aggregated census format - we do not have details of individual policies. However, work is currently being undertaken to switch to a per-policy submission method for the mortality investigation, and this will enable us to carry out more detailed analyses. Find out more on the Per-policy data submission FAQs page.
Can you provide any information on mortality experience broken down by occupation / socio-economic group / geographical location / cause / other?
No. We have no information on the make-up of the lives comprising the data, other than that they are all holders of policies with UK insurance companies. An investigation into mortality by cause of death used to be carried out, but this was discontinued in 1995. More information will become available once per-policy data collection is in place.
Can you suggest other possible sources of UK mortality information?
- The Office for National Statistics. www.statistics.gov.uk
- The Government Actuaries Department. www.gad.gov.uk
- Human Mortality Database. www.mortality.org/
How should stakeholder pension plans be treated for data submission purposes?
Personal stakeholder pensions should be included in the same data return as for personal pensions data ie, investigation 22 for polices in deferment and investigation 24 for policies in payment. Currently there is no investigation for group stakeholder arrangements.
How will the reporting of annuities in payment be affected by pensions sharing on divorce?
Where the annuity record has been split so that both annuities are being recorded then the member’s pension can be recorded in the normal way (though at a reduced amount), and the ex-spouse’s policy should also be recorded as another active member (investigation 31 or 33). The point is that the spouse investigation (investigation 34) is recording the mortality of spouses after the death of their partner and the divorced spouse record should not be included in that investigation.
In the event of an office’s restructuring, for example through mergers, demutualisations or other transfers of business, should separate returns still be made for the original office numbers or should these be combined?
Provided the CMI is notified as to any changes in grouping, the way that policies are grouped is really a matter for the companies involved. The CMI aggregates the data prior to wider publication. Our main concern is to make sure that, overall, we collect as much accurate data as possible. At the company level, the main users of the data split are the offices themselves. This is reflected in the office specific reports produced for each office, and so if an office wishes to track the experience of each portfolio separately then it should continue to return data in the original way using the original office numbers.
What table is recommended for [the particular experience I am looking at]?
It is down to each individual actuary to choose the mortality table, and any adjustments to it, for the particular experience in question. We cannot “recommend” a table to be used.
What factors drive future movements in mortality improvements?
Possible factors include medical advances, lifestyle changes, etc. but unfortunately the CMI does not have information available.
If you have any questions about the CMI please email
Filter or search events
CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual 'Life' calendar. Due to COVID-19 we are running the programme as a series of webinars covering topics aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries and those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe.
Current Issues in Life Assurance – Mortality in 2020 is now dominated by one thing, although – in our future-focused world – the pandemic is just one of many mortality considerations. In this session, three well-regarded mortality/longevity specialists provide an overview of implications and impacts of COVID-19, recent and imminent CMI developments and more 'future focused' work in the MRSC
Because of Covid-19, forecasters predict a severe recession in 2020, followed by a V or U-shaped recovery. This impacts both individuals and companies. However, compared to previous recessions, the impact on banks of higher credit losses should be mitigated to some extent by government actions.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series
This session will provide an overview of the Population Health Management Working Party's research including defining impactability and impactability modelling, discussing some examples of specific modelling approaches, considering the practical challenges across the NHS as well as wider public perception and ethical issues.
Many actuaries consider career opportunities in the Finance and Investment practice area after having started off in more traditional actuarial roles such as valuations, capital management or pricing. This session is aimed at helping actuaries to better understand roles in Finance and Investment and how they can fine tune their skills to pursue such careers.
Due to COVID-19, we are running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 22nd July.
This webinar series will provide topical and practical updates and discussion on the latest thinking and innovations in mortality and longevity, and is designed to be very accessible to a broad range of experience.
Insurers are making increasing use of medical research to help with assumption, models and underwriting. Experienced mortality/ longevity specialists discuss the issues in the interpretation of medical research papers, using a range of case studies. The case studies will include COVID-19 points of current importance. Many of the concepts discussed (data bias, inference of causation) are also applicable to equivalent questions in 'big data' and advanced analytics.
Members of the Mortality Working Group of the IAA have analysed changes in mortality for about 30 causes of death and will discuss how causes of death are classified, and the problems of long-term data, appropriate metrics, including "years of life lost" (YLL), causes of death - a "measure of cohortness", the changes in dominant causes of death at older ages, and how can these types of studies enhance mortality forecasting.
Predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on postcode-level consumer classification are widely used for life insurance underwriting. However, these are socio-economic models not directly related to health information. Similar to precision medicine, precision life insurance should aim to tailor policy pricing/reserving to the individual health characteristics of each client.
The aim of this webinar is to provide an overview of research undertaken within the Data Science Working Party on applying machine learning methods for sentiment analysis and opinion mining of UK Twitter data relating to COVID-19.
This discussion, the fourth in the Extreme Mortality Events webinar series, will look at what poor model selection and calibration could look like – using inappropriate historical data; using incorrect 2020 mortality data; and inappropriate stochastic model recalibration (or lack thereof). Presented by Chair of the Life Board of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Colin Dutkiewicz.
This webinar has been re-scheduled from its original date of the 1st July. Although ESG has many buyers across the asset allocation community, from pension funds to sovereign wealth funds, it still hasn’t found its place within the core asset management strategy desks where the money is actually invested. The problem as well as the opportunity is Fixed Income. Plenty of strategies exist for incorporating ESG within Equities, from screening, integration to a combination. ESG has picked up relatively quickly within Equities with rating,indices created using ESG factors. This talk will discuss how we price a quantifiable ESG credit risk premium and make it alpha worthy in a strategy.
Over the past decades, many countries have exhibited mortality rates approximately following a piecewise linear law. This is visible in the form of steady improvements over multiple years, followed by a rather abrupt trend change, and then again stable improvements according to the new trend.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series
With the rising prevalence of dementia, how can we manage this risk effectively and can insurance do more? Matt Singleton, Ageing Lead at Swiss Re, will cover these topics and demonstrate how insurance could help people address their concerns.
Current Issues in Life Assurance – Join us for an exploration session on the use of data science in insurance companies today including how insurers are making sense of and using new data sources and technologies, exploration of practical applications of data science within actuarial work, benefits of data-driven decisions to solve business problems using the power of data and technology, and the role that actuaries can play to harness the benefits of data science.
Current Issues in Life Assurance
This talk will look at a range of such techniques (e.g. mass lapse risk transfer, contract boundaries, risk margin relief, non-standard longevity risk transfer) that have been applied or considered by UK and EU insurers, and the pros and cons of each.
Current Issues in Life Assurance.
The International Association of Insurance Supervisors announced on 14 November 2019 the adoption of v2.0 of the global Insurance Capital Standard (ICS) which will undergo confidential reporting for 5 years starting from 2020. This session will include specific experiences from Legal and General (L&G) as well as global industry perspectives from EY.
Current Issues in Life Assurance
This session will cover the PRA supervisory statement on financial impacts related to climate change, industry insights into PRA climate risk business plans, examples climate risk strategy setting out key workstreams and activity steps for successful execution, an overview of a climate risk strategy execution timeline and the future.
On 25 June the International Accounting Standards Board published Amendments to IFRS 17, the Insurance Contracts global accounting standard effective 1 January 2023.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series
This session will cover how we have challenged conventional approaches to underwriting and risk selection in order to develop an approach that aligns current practices, customer and broader interests with robust risk assessment.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. Using new and unique research and data from the UK, US, Sweden and China, this presentation investigates how consumers use the internet through their insurance journey and analyzes the role culture and generation plays in their online behaviour. We use this research to show the online landscape for insurance sales in the UK and suggest ways to shape new products and effectively engage with the consumer who is buying them.
Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for Gen Re Life/Health Research and Development, Dr John O'Brien, will discuss the impacts of Gene Modification for life/health insurance.
Our presentation will examine the challenges arising in setting mortality improvement assumptions, exposing known but under-explored vulnerabilities of current practices.
As an industry, it has been important to be able to look to the future to identify the next quantifiable risk. In this session, I will explore some of the less tangible, but none-the-less concerning risks to future health, such as the health risks associated with exposure to pesticides, ingestion of plastic in the food chain, and the hazards of indoor air pollution through exposure to volatile organic compounds.
The working party will help the industry to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes and excess mortality is considered, including the need to understand the underwriting implications as treatments improve, and potentially to develop new products that are tailored to those with diabetes.
This event is now fully booked. To join the wait list, please register here.
A Trusted Profession
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. Modelling the structure and trends of cancer morbidity risk is important for pricing and reserving in related health insurance fields such as critical illness insurance and care provision. We model the dynamics of cancer incidence over time in different regions in England, using 1981-2016 ONS data. The modelling allows estimation of cancer rates at various age, year, gender and region levels, following a Bayesian setting to account for statistical uncertainty. Our analysis indicates significant regional variation in cancer incidence rates.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. In this talk we will outline the steps Aviva took in pulling together our first large-scale disclosures on the exposure of our business to climate change published in March 2019; in line with the recommendations of the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. After touching on why insurers have such an important role in climate change, we'll cover a brief “how-to” guide for those who have not yet embarked on thinking about these topics before giving a case study of how the learnings from a TCFD disclosure exercise can be applied to investment portfolios.
Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series.
The insurance industry currently underwrites customers with diabetes based on a range of factors, medical expertise and various medical studies. The work undertaken by the Diabetes Working Party would help the industry to approach this using current research findings to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes is considered. This includes the need to understand the underwriting implications as treatments improve, and potentially to develop new products that are tailored to those with diabetes. This webinar will present our latest findings in the management of this important chronic condition which will include research in collaboration with the ARC.