The CMI’s Mortality Projections Working Party has evaluated the P-Spline and Lee-Carter methodologies for projecting mortality

The CMI is not seeking approval for the methodologies, which we regard very much as ‘Work in Progress’. We certainly do not feel that we have the answer in this area, and it is only by exposing the work fully to the profession that the benefits and features of the methodologies will become apparent. Neither do we rule out the use of other stochastic or non-stochastic approaches. However, it is not the CMI’s role to set standards in this area.

From 2005 to 2008 the CMI made available software with the aims of illustrating these methodologies, assisting the profession to debate the issues and to help users validate the results of their own work. The CMI would like to express its thanks to James Kirkby and Dr Iain Currie of Heriot Watt University for developing this software.

The software uses the statistical package R, together with the R(D)COM interface. The software was withdrawn for new users early in 2009 after the CMI became aware that it is not compatible with newer versions of R and/or the interface. Registered users of the software were notified in January 2009 that they may need to retain existing versions of R and the interface for the software to remain functional.

The software is now available on request to anyone able to locate appropriate versions of R and the interface

To obtain the software please complete the Software Request Form and return it to the CMI.

The software requires the statistical package R to be installed together with the R(D)COM interface which allows Excel to call R. Please note that the software will not function on Excel 97 or earlier versions as these do not contain some of the VBA commands required by the software.

The software is of an experimental nature and is not commercial grade

It is made available on the understanding that you agree to the following conditions:

  • the software is illustrative and the CMI accepts no liability for its use
  • no support can be provided for the software
  • it is the user’s responsibility to source versions of R and the interface and to ensure that the software functions correctly with these
  • the software has been made available for your use only. Colleagues or others wishing to use the software should use the form to seek their own permission to use it
  • agreement to abide by the terms of the GPL licence.

In using the software we request that you communicate any errors or issues you discover to the Life Office Mortality Committee by emailing mortality@cmib.org.uk at the earliest opportunity. The CMI are keen that results produced by the software are discussed with the Committee, before any public comment is made. We hope you will feel able to abide by this request.

Instructions for installing the software

The software is provided in zipped format. You will need to copy all the contents into a single directory. Explanatory notes are contained in the User Guide and the GPL licence is contained in “GNU General Public License.doc”. The software itself creates an add-in to Excel. A spreadsheet is also supplied containing data for male assured lives from 1947 to 2005, for ages 20 to 90 and for all durations combined.

The latest version of the software was released in November 2007 and contains a number of changes to the previous version issued from April 2007, notably correction of an error relating to deviance residuals in the Lee-Carter functionality. Read the Exposure note for more information.

In addition the exposure data supplied with the software is central exposure and does not require adjustment before use (previously initial exposures were supplied).

All the changes from the previous version are documented within the User Guide. Registered users are automatically being supplied with the updated version.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Hong Kong

    Club@28, Crowne Plaza Hong Kong Causeway Bay, Causeway Bay, No.8 Leighton Road (Chinese address :香港铜锣湾皇冠假日酒店28层Club@28, 香港铜锣湾礼顿道8号 )
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Shenzen

    Shenzhen:  GlassHammer Bar, L1-131-133, Futiam Shopping Mall, Shenzhen. (Chinese address: 玻璃锤精酿啤酒屋(原Taps),深圳市福田区购物公园1楼商铺131-133)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Shanghai

    Shanghai: Bluefrog (next to Super Grand Mall), No. 12-14 Fucheng Road, Shanghai. (Chinese address: Bluefrog蓝蛙正大店,富城路12-14号,正大广场对面)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Beijing

    Beijing: Jazz.ya APM,L621-623, Sun Dong An Plaza Plaza, No. 138 Wangfujing Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing (Chinese address: 北京市东城区王府井大街138号新东安广场L621-623商铺)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • Sessional Meeting - Operational Risk Dependencies

    Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh 9 Queen St Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    20 January 2020

    Fully booked.

    The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. One of the key challenges in modelling operational risk is the modelling of dependencies between operational risks, and between operational and non-operational risks such as market, credit and insurance risk.

  • KSS event in Glasgow: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson, Glasgow 20 Waterloo St, Glasgow
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Stirling: Public Sector Pensions

    M&G Prudential, Stirling Craigforth Campus, Stirling
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Edinburgh: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson 1, Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • The Great Risk Transfer – Breakfast briefing and launch event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    31 January 2020

    Fully booked.

     

    Launch of the IFoA’s 2020 thought leadership campaign The Great Risk Transfer. The campaign will examine the trend of the transfer of risk from institutions to individuals, and how people can be better equipped to manage the financial risks they now face. At this breakfast event the IFoA will launch a call for evidence on this topic.

  • Joint IFoA and SOAT Professional Skills Training event - Bangkok

    Thai Life Insurance PCL, 13th Floor, Meeting Room 13/2, 123 Ratchadaphisek Road, Din Daeng, Bangkok 10400, Thailand  
    7 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This session is jointly organised by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Society of Actuaries of Thailand (SOAT).

    Video case studies will be selected from the IFoA’s 2019/2020 online content which covers a range of topics under an overarching theme of “A Trusted Profession”. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

     

  • Cyber Risk Event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    10 February 2020

    Spaces available

    What do good cyber practices look like and, to what extent, can we as an industry implement these operationally and recognise these for underwriting?

  • KSS event: Where now for pensions?

    Royal London Group, 1 Thistle Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1DG
    18 February 2020

    Spaces available

    With a single party government at Westminster holding a comfortable majority, and with the first phase of Brexit complete, the potential for radical reforms of the pensions landscape is increased. 

    Former Pensions Minister Steve Webb discusses what changes we can expect to see in pensions including in state pensions, pension tax relief, automatic enrolment and the workplace pension landscape.

  • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    24 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.

  • KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?

    New Register House, 3 West Register Street, Edinburgh
    5 March 2020

    Spaces available

    The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:

  • Board agenda: Why Responsible Investing, ESG, and Climate Change matters to Pension Funds, Companies

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London. WC1V 6DR, UK
    19 March 2020

    Spaces available

    Recent years have seen ESG, Climate Change, and Responsible Investing thrust onto the corporate agenda in every boardroom. The same also be said for pension funds. Expectations of how companies should respond are high and NEDs on Boards are expected to adapt and adjust their guidance to companies accordingly. What does this mean for Actuaries serving as NEDs and Trustees?

  • KSS event: A Cashless Society- Benefits, Risks, Issues and Developments

    Deloitte, 4th Floor, Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace
    19 March 2020

    Spaces available

    Speaker: Iain Collier, Chair of the CSWP

    The talk will look to cover the following: Progression towards a Cashless Society • Developments home and overseas • Benefits, Risks and Issues • Crypto Currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies.

    There will be an extended Q&A session at the end of the event.

  • Spring Lecture 2020, Edinburgh - Vicky Pryce

    Assembly Rooms, 54 George St, Edinburgh EH2 2LR
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy? Please join us for our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

  • Spring Lecture 2020: Live Streaming

    Webinar
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy? Please join us on 25 March 2020 for the live stream of our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

  • SIAS Event: CMI Update

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    1 April 2020

    Spaces available

    Following the release of the updated CMI Mortality Projection Model, CMI_2019, the CMI Mortality Projections Committee will lead a discussion on future mortality improvements.

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur

    CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    24-25 June 2020
    Spaces available

    Join us at the IFoA Asia Conference 2020 at CCEC Nexus, Kuala Lumpur where intellectual thought leaders, senior industry players, opinion formers, academics, actuaries and non-actuaries from across Asia and beyond are expected to attend. This year's landmark conference promises to an exciting one as our first Asian President-elect, Tan Suee Chieh will, as newly appointed president of the IFoA, use his presidential address to highlight the two key pillars of the IFoA’s emerging strategy:

    • the reinvention of the profession in terms of its skillsets and mind-sets so that we can thrive in an increasing range of domains in a digital age;
    • the widening application of actuarial science in achieving social impact and sustainability goals.

    We are also delighted to announce that the Honourable Mr. Lim Guan Eng, Minister of Finance, Malaysia, will be the guest of honour at this year's conference.

    Should you be interested in presenting and sharing your expertise with international industry players, opinion formers, peers, and academics, please submit your proposal by 20 January.

    Early bird registration is now open until 1 March.  10% group discounts are offered to a minimum of six IFoA members booking in a single transaction.  Limited spaces are available, so please sign-up early to avoid disappointment.