About this event
The Life Conference 2017 is taking place in Birmingham from 22 - 24 November 2017.
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance.
Whether UK based or international, the conference is open to anyone with an interest in the life sector. It offers an ideal forum to meet and exchange ideas with a broad range of professionals. If you want to get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation, this is the event for you.
We are pleased to announce that Alastair Campbell, Former Labour Communications Director, will be delivering the opening plenary at the Life Conference on Wednesday 22 November. Alastair is a writer, communicator and strategist best known for his role as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s spokesman, press secretary and director of communications and strategy. Still active in politics and campaigns in Britain and overseas, he now splits his time between writing, speaking, charities and consultancy.
The following sessions, amongst others, will also feature at this year’s Life Conference:
Brexit: Ed Jenkins, Global Head of Wholesale Credit and Market Risk, HSBC, will speak on managing risk in a brexit world, and will offer his insight on the resulting impact on the economic climate.
IFRS17: The IFoA’s cross-practice Financial Reporting Group will present on the IFRS17 requirements and provide wider views on what the new accounting standard means for the global insurance industry. We are delighted to announce that Stephen Cooper, Board member of the International Accounting Standards Board, will be sharing the stage with the IFoA Financial Reporting Group. Stephen will be speaking from personal experience on the process of drafting the requirements for IFRS17 and will take questions from the audience.
Solvency II: With the implementation of Solvency II, we will hear from speakers from the life insurance industry on a variety of Solvency II areas, such as reporting and disclosures, IMAP, transitional measures and investments.
There will also be opportunities for IFoA members to gain Professional Skills Training CPD.
- Registration Wed, 22/11/2017 - 17:45 - 19:30 Registration, Buffet Dinner and Exhibition
- Transfer time Wed, 22/11/2017 - 19:30 - 19:45 Transfer
- Plenary session Wed, 22/11/2017 - 19:45 - 19:55 Welcome to the Life Conference 2017
John Lim, Chair of the IFoA Life Conference 2017 Programme Committee
- Plenary session Wed, 22/11/2017 - 19:55 - 20:00 Update from the Life Board
- Plenary session Wed, 22/11/2017 - 20:00 - 21:00 Plenary 1: Alastair Campbell, Former Labour Communications Director
- Networking Wed, 22/11/2017 - 21:00 - 23:00 Drinks reception and Networking
- Registration Thu, 23/11/2017 - 09:00 - 09:30 Registration (for those who didn’t register on Wednesday)
- Plenary session Thu, 23/11/2017 - 09:30 - 09:45 Presidential update
- Plenary session Thu, 23/11/2017 - 09:45 - 10:45 Plenary 2: Managing Risk in a Brexit World
Speaker: Ed Jenkins, Global Head of Wholesale Credit and Market Risk, HSBC
- Refreshments Thu, 23/11/2017 - 10:45 - 11:15 Morning Refreshments and Exhibition
- Workshop Thu, 23/11/2017 - 11:15 - 12:05 Workshop A
A1: Everything You Wanted to Know About Regulation…And More
Speaker: Christine McConnell, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
A2: Value of With-Profits Business to Consumers
Do consumers understand the value of their with-profits policies and, in particular, is the value of inherent guarantees and potential for real asset growth recognised by consumers?
What is the consumer’s perspective on the run-off of with-profits funds? Are consumers getting what they signed up for and do they understand the potential “end games” of the run-off of the fund?
The presentation will cover the Working Party review:
Features of typical UK with profits product offerings, focussing on the risks to which policyholders are exposed and the guarantees provided.
with-profits marketing literature and benefit statements
existing relevant consumer research previously performed, and including any wider research on consumer understanding of financial products
consumer survey commissioned by the Working Party
Speakers: Andrew Fraser, Ben Stroud and Jonathan Welsh, members of the Value of With-Profits to Consumers Working Party
A3: Annuity Portfolio Reallocations: A Case Study
As with-profits funds across the industry continue to age, the importance of their safe, orderly and fair run-off is becoming more and more important. Aligned to this, The Phoenix Group recently reallocated a diverse and interesting mix of non-profit annuity portfolios from its with-profits funds to its non-profit fund.
This session will consider these reallocations from various perspectives – Phoenix’s policyholders, its shareholders, as well as the Independent Actuary reporting on the transactions – discussing:
the motivation for the transfers;
the key challenges of pricing them fairly; and
the impact of low, falling and often volatile markets, with some Brexit thrown in too.
Speakers: Stephen Makin, Hymans Robertson and Andrew Burke, The Phoenix Group
A4: Solvency II Look-through Capital Treatment for Risk-premium Investments
Presentation providing insight into a project assessing the Solvency II market and counterparty risk look-through capital requirements under the Standard Formula for a “risk-premia” fund intended for insurance investors. We will share some key findings, in particular for the Standard Formula treatment of so called “long/short” equity portfolios and more generally for trading strategies requiring an assessment of eligibility of the risk mitigating technique “RMT” element and the materiality of the residual risk for hedged exposures. We will share some further guidance collected from various discussions and workshops with insurance regulators across Europe as well as EIOPA, as well as some elements of the quantitative analysis framework devised to assess the materiality of the residual risk for such trading strategies.
Speakers: Jerome Ogrodzki, Moody's Analytics and Deepak Maharaj, J.P Morgan
A5: Insurance Linked Securities: The New UK Regime
The UK government is introducing new rules to attract ILSs to the UK, to make it easier for the capital markets to invest in insurance risk. These are currently mostly used in GI but there are potential exciting uses in life, such as for capital management and capital raising, and as alternatives to reinsurance.
Speakers: Theresa Chew, Hymans Robertson LLP and Adam Levitt, Ashurst
A6: Latest Developments from the CMI
Update from Continuous Mortality Investigation Ltd (the CMI) on the latest developments from the Annuities, Assurances, Mortality Projections and SAPS Committees aimed at users of CMI outputs. Specialist technical knowledge not required, although a working knowledge of CMI outputs (such as the CMI Mortality Projections Model and “S2”/”08” Series mortality tables) would be useful.
Speakers: Katherine Fossett, Barnett Waddingham and James Tait, Pacific Life Re
A7: How Insurers Can Innovate With Non-insurance Benefits
We will look at ways insurers can provide a more innovative and engaging proposition by offering non-insurance benefits alongside traditional insurance products.
Using case studies we will analyse how non-insurance benefits can help deliver more value to customers, and drive a greater take up of insurance.
From the insurers perspective we also review the benefits, risks and practical considerations that need to be considered.
Speakers: Richard Purcell, Hymans Robertson and Nick Telfer, British Friendly
A8: Update From the Modelling, Analytics, and Insights From Data (MAID) Working Party
Tangible learning points:
Implication of data science for actuaries
Strategic questions for the profession
Update on the work of the MAID working party
The world of data science continues to be both a threat and an opportunity for actuaries in traditional and new areas of work. The IFoA Council are keen to see our strategy develop and build on the work of the Modelling, Analytics, and Insights from Data working party. This session is an opportunity to share progress, exchange views about what data science means for the profession, and most importantly what we can and should be doing to engage with it as actuarial professionals.
Speaker: Stelio Passaris, FIS
A9: Using EI to Better Manage Actuarial Teams
A follow up to last year's talk on emotional intelligence, this talk covers aspects of the topic in more detail, with a particular focus on understanding and managing other people more effectively, and is aimed at people who lead actuarial and finance teams. We'll be covering the following;
- Millennials in the workplace - managing different generations
- A model for political awareness (foxes, donkeys and owls)
- How to deal with the walking dead and the well poisoners
- Plus lots more!
It promises to be a thought provoking and practical talk that will challenge you to approach your team management differently.
Speakers: Peter Heffernan and Michelle Lister, PwC
A10: FX Risk Management Considerations for UK Insurers
We will discuss potential rationale for the increased holdings of foreign bonds by UK insurers in recent years. This will cover an overview of the major credit markets, alternative assets & wider themes impacting UK insurance.
We will discuss the different derivative instruments available to manage FX risk, including a deep-dive on x-currency swaps. We will cover trading strategies, pricing considerations (from a risk and bank regulatory point of view), market drivers and Solvency II implications.
We will go into detail on different market players of x-currency swaps.
Speakers: Ben Mabley, Citigroup Global Markets Limited and Johnny Chow, Legal & General
- Transfer time Thu, 23/11/2017 - 12:05 - 12:20 Transfer time
- Workshop Thu, 23/11/2017 - 12:20 - 13:10 Workshop B
B1: Challenging the Status Quo
“If it ain’t broke, break it!” – that’s the mantra of disruptive companies like Netflix, Uber and Apple that are taking their markets by storm. Complacent businesses continue to be swept aside, which is why everyone in every organisation everywhere needs to be constantly looking for ways of challenging the status quo – and coming up with innovative ways of staying relevant in a rapidly changing world.
Speaker: Steve Bavister, Speak First
B2: Scottish Mortality – How is it Different and Why Does it Matter?
Life expectancies in Scotland are shorter than elsewhere in the UK, but what does this mean and why? Is there merely a different balance of UK life expectancy sub-groups in Scotland, or is there something specific to the Scottish experience? Do these differences disappear once income and socio-economic groups are accounted for? Are there differences within England too, and should there be different state pension ages in different areas of the UK? We explore the patterns in Scottish mortality and how they differ from the rest of the UK, using Mercer’s latest modelling to demonstrate surprising differences. We discuss possible reasons for the differences, and the right and wrong ways to make use of this information.
Speakers: Glyn Bradley and Susan Hanlon, Mercer
B3: IFRS 17 - How Will it Impact Contracts in Different Jurisdictions?
IFRS 17 is coming and it will impact insurers in over 170 countries world wide. In this session we will look at how the standard might impact contracts written in the UK, France and Switzerland - how these differences will impact profit and wider financial reporting and relative profitability of insurers based on the types of business written. We will also consider the likely different level of implementation effort required.
Speakers: Dominic Veney, PwC UK, James Norman, PwC Switzerland and Vincent Gibrais, PwC France
B4: The Risk of Anti-selection in Protection Business from Advances in Statistical Genetics
Use of Genetic Data in underwriting is heavily regulated around the world and this is unlikely to change. As the price of genetic testing continues to fall and genetic tests become more ubiquitous, particularly the growth of direct to consumer personal genome testing, the potential for information asymmetry and anti-selection increases. This session will review emerging scientific trends in predicting death and disease using genetic data, with a particular focus on the advances in statistical genetics (in particular, the use of Polygenic Risk Scores [PRS]), and propose scenarios for anti-selection in the near future.
Speakers: Peter Banthorpe, RGA and TBC
B5: A Stochastic Implementation of the APCI Model for Mortality Projections
The APCI model is a new addition to the canon of mortality forecasting models. It was introduced by the CMI as a means of parameterising a deterministic targeting model for forecasting, but we show how it can be implemented as a fully stochastic model. We demonstrate a number of interesting features about the APCI model, including which parameters to smooth and how much better the model fits to the data compared to some other, related models. However, this better fit also happens to result in higher value-at-risk-style capital requirements for insurers, and we explore why this is by looking at the density of the value-at-risk simulations.
Speakers: Stephen Richards, Longevitas and Torsten Kleinow, Heriot-Watt University
B6: Antibiotic Resistance: Preliminary Working Party Findings
Antibiotic Resistance ('ABR') has featured heavily in the news in recent years, and has been a particular concern of the nation's Chief Medical Officer. ABR has the potential to wipe out the future mortality/longevity improvements we might otherwise reasonably expect from general medical/lifestyle advances. The issue is relevant to all ages and all countries.
The IFoA set up in January of this year a working party to model the likely impact of antibiotic resistance. In this session, members of the working party will present their preliminary findings, covering
An overview of ABR
Future mitigation via pharma development and other routes
Likely future scenarios
Our ABR modelling approach
Speakers: Matthew Edwards, Willis Towers Watson, Nicola Oliver, Medical Intelligence, Sheridan Fitzgibbon, RMS, members of the Antibiotic Resistance Working Party
B7: Liquidity Risk: The Insurance Industry’s Elephant in the Room
Liquidity risk is something that insurers have historically believed is immaterial to their businesses. However regulators are increasingly focussing on firms’ liquidity management frameworks, including plans to manage the business in a crisis. We will cover:
• Sources of liquidity risk for insurers
• Options available to insurers for day-to-day and crisis management
• Insights from EY’s 2016 global insurance liquidity risk management survey
• Our view of a market leading liquidity risk management framework
Speakers: Gareth Sutcliffe and Sam Tufts, EY
B8: How the Analysts Reacted to the First Solvency II Disclosures
Fulin Liang (Insurance Sector Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley) will discuss how Analysts have reacted to and used the first set of Solvency II disclosures. Nick Ford will provide an overview of the level of detail that the industry went to in both the disclosure in the annual accounts and in the SFCR. John Jenkins will chair the session and the Q&A.
The session will pick up on:
The success of investor communication strategies
The key metrics of interest to Analysts and how they use them
The key differences in message between the UK and the rest of Europe
Speakers: Fulin Liang, Morgan Stanley, Nick Ford and John Lim, KPMG
B9: How to Create an Efficient Private Credit Asset Portfolio on UK Life Insurance Balance Sheet
To give an overview of the areas of focus for UK life insurers in terms of private credit assets for the past few years. Private credit is a growing asset class which encompasses infrastructure, real estate, movable assets (such as aircrafts), corporate, trade and structured finance. The need to understand the key risks/ returns of each underlying asset class within private credit along with the ability to create a diversified private credit portfolio is critical. We consider a few examples of private credit portfolios and discuss their pros/ cons in terms of their correlation with the broader fixed income portfolios.
Speakers: Munawer Shafi, Aviva Investors and Sidd Bhat, Citi Bank
B10: Stabilising a With-profits Fund in Fast Run Off: A Forester Life Case Study
The case study is about a with-profits fund, acquired by Forester Life, the inherent challenges within this fund, the planning and implementation of a series of solutions to improve solvency and policyholder outcomes in the short and long term.
Practically, it will cover
- the history of the fund and issues which have arisen from past practices
- developing a run off plan, balancing fair outcomes to different groups of policyholders, distributing the estate, while maintaining solvency
- designing and implementing a solution for a staff defined benefit scheme in deficit, which resides within the fund
- improving policyholder outcomes through changing investment strategy and charges
- communicating complex issues to customers
Speakers: Amy Nicholson, Grant Thornton, Karina Lo Dico and Darryl Brundle, Foresters Life
- Refreshments Thu, 23/11/2017 - 13:10 - 14:10 Lunch and Exhibition
- Workshop Thu, 23/11/2017 - 14:10 - 15:00 Workshop C
C1: Brexit: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and What Are Insurers Actually Doing?
With Article 50 triggered and negotiations underway, numerous challenges lie ahead for the UK insurance industry. This session will cover:
-what we know,
-what we don’t know,
-and what insurers are actually doing to prepare for Brexit.
We will cover non-life as well as life considerations, as it is important that life actuaries are aware of the non-life industry perspectives on Brexit as non-life may actually have a greater influence on the insurance industry outcomes.
Sian Hill, KPMG’s Head of Insurance Brexit, will present on the above aspects from the overall industry perspective.
Nick Kitching, Swiss Re’s CRO Europe, will present on Swiss Re’s perspective and approaches as a pan-European and global reinsurer with significant operations in the UK.
Speakers: Nicholas Kitching, Swiss Re Services Limited, Sian Hill and John Jenkins, KPMG
C2: Wearables in Life Insurance: The Evidence, Emerging Developments, and Potential Applications
This session will discuss the scientific evidence behind current generation wearable devices and metrics, and will consider how emerging developments in both technology and biometric measurements might be applied to insurance. Insights from RGA's own international wearable studies will also be provided.
Speaker: Chris Falkous, RGA
C3: How Actuaries Can Drive Business Strategies in the Low Interest Rate Environment
A case study on how a multinational insurer is driving changes to its business strategy to ensure its sustainability in a long-term low interest rate environment.
In order to future-proof HSBC’s insurance business model, HSBC has worked with KPMG to develop agile capital projection and asset liability management capabilities based on a robust capital measurement base, to enable business heads to deliver key strategic changes in product offerings and investment strategies to help maintain the business’s profitability, and more proactively manage capital strength and market risk exposures, in a long-term low interest rate environment. This initiative was driven from the very highest level in the Bank and demonstrates the importance of utilising actuarial tools in a highly commercial way.
Speakers: Nirav Dinesh Morjaria, HSBC, Christopher Plank, HSBC, James Isden and Nicole Pang, KPMG
C4: Internal Model Calibration Using Overlapping Data
Solvency II Internal Models require calibration of annual changes in market indices at the 1-in-200 level and higher. In practice we have at most a few decades worth of relevant historic data. This presents a credibility issue with the risk distributions - the results are subject to high levels of uncertainty. An approach to compensate for the limited number of historic data points is to use overlapping annual changes. Overlapping changes are not independent and this dependence can cause issues in calibrations as well as in communicating uncertainty.
The EEWP discusses the issues with overlapping data compared to alternatives, presenting the results of a number of familiar statistical tests. We discuss which tests are important for the calibration of Internal Models.
Speakers: Andrew Smith, James Sharpe, Gaurang Mehta, and Rishi Bhartia, members of the Extreme Events Working Party
C5: Identifying, Quantifying and Mitigating the Risk of Epidemics
Presentation on Products, Underwriting and Pricing for Epidemic Risks. Each year, infectious diseases claim the lives of nearly 15 million people worldwide, including over 400,000 from food-borne illnesses alone. This results in a devastating emotional and financial impact, leading to billions of dollars in economic losses annually. In the year of the Zika virus, the continued threat of infectious diseases remains significant, which is why today, Metabiota, the pioneer in comprehensive epidemic risk analytics that help protect global health, is providing insight into what to expect in the year ahead.
Speaker: Petra Wildemann, Metabiota
C6: Longevity Risk Research (ARC Funded Project)
The presentation will be divided into three parts.
- An overview of the motivation behind the 4-year programme of research and what we hope to achieve at various stages of the work.
- What research results have emerged so far? This will include discussion of a particular, large dataset and how the research team has exploited its detailed content to draw interesting conclusions about mortality in different sections of a national population.
- What lines of research and knowledge exchange activities are most likely to lead to impact, such as improved actuarial practice or longevity risk management techniques?
Audience participation is very welcome!
Speaker: Andrew Cairns, Heriot Watt University
C7: Actuarial Association of Europe (AAE) – What Have We Been Up to and Why Should You Care?
The Actuarial Association of Europe is the main avenue through which the IFoA voice is heard in Europe. Two of the IFoA representatives at the AEE, Kartina Tahir Thomson (Insurance Committee member and Non-Life Working Group Chair) and David Hare (Member Suppliant, General Assembly), will highlight some of the current activity that impacts the Life market, including:
o European Actuarial Standards (e.g. ESAP 3)
o EIOPA consultations such as Insurance Block Exemption, Solvency II, Recovery and Resolution
o Low interest rate environment
o Role of actuaries
o Technology (Big data; cyber risk)
Speakers: Kartina Tahir Thomson, Bank of England and David Hare, Deloitte
C8: Solvency II and Current Economic Environment – Impact on Consumers
The Solvency II and Economic Environment Consumer Impact Working Party was formed in late 2016. Members are from diverse backgrounds – consultancies, life insurers, asset management and the PRA. The aim of the working party is to assess to what extent the bar of providing various life insurance products is raised because of Solvency II and the low rate environment, whether certain products are disadvantaged (e.g. annuities), and the key issues behind these challenges. Earlier this year, the working party contributed to the IFoA’s submission to the Treasury Select Committee’s SII hearing. It has also completed a Survey to Chief Actuaries on SII impacts on life insurers and inferred the likely impacts for the consumer. In this workshop session, we intend to present the survey results and our desktop analysis and conclusions, and lead discussions (which we plan should be interactive) with the audience on the reasons for and implications of the most relevant and interesting results found by our survey.
Speakers: Ziling Jiang, Lombard Odier Investment Management, Yaryee Wong, Hyman Robertson and Jignesh Mistry, PwC, members of the Impact on Consumers of Solvency II and the Current Economic Environment Working Party
C9: How Much Will I Have to Live on in Retirement? (ARC Funded Project)
Figuring out an appropriate investment strategy to meet your retirement aims is difficult. The choice of the strategy is pushed onto individuals. Individuals are asked to be investment experts, which we do not think is appropriate in most cases. We propose a product that allows the customer to understand what they may get at retirement from it and, importantly, communicates the risk involved. The underlying investment strategy is detailed and we present some illustrative examples.
Speakers: Dr Rami Chehab and Dr Thomas Bernhardt
C10: Recovery and Resolution Plans in Banking and Insurance
Recovery and Resolution Plans (RRPs) have been attracting a lot of regulatory attention of late.
RRPs have already been introduced in the banking industry and, having gone through the process already, our banking counterparts have a wealth of experience available to guide both insurance companies and regulators in their development of these plans.
In this dynamic session, Dr. Monika Smatralova will share her insights into the recovery and resolution planning process from a banking perspective and share some experiences on implementation challenges. Bridget MacDonnell will discuss the latest developments in this space from a (re)insurance perspective and explore the available tool-kit through colourful case studies of recovery and resolution strategies which have been successfully implemented all around the world.
Speakers: Bridget MacDonnell, Milliman and Monika Smatralova
- Transfer time Thu, 23/11/2017 - 15:00 - 15:15 Transfer time
- Workshop Thu, 23/11/2017 - 15:15 - 16:05 Workshop D
D1: Developments in Longevity Swaps
There has been significant growth in the longevity swap market over the last ten years but there are still significant liabilities remaining with UK and global pension schemes. This presentation will provide an overview of recent developments and innovations in longevity swaps and outlines ways in which transactions can be made more straightforward to further expand the options available to pension schemes and insurers. Including
- Providing access to smaller pension schemes and reinsurance of smaller bulk annuity transactions;
- Simplifications to quotation processes, benefits and legal documents
- Dealing with deferred pensioner risk
Speaker: Andrew Murphy, Pacific Life Re Limited
D2: On Economic Theory and Actuarial Practice (ARC Funded Project)
We investigate how well understood many of the assumptions that underpin financial economics are, given its widespread use in actuarial practice. The basis by which models are adjusted to reflect economic reality rather than economic theory. Where economic thought comes from in firms and whether this is challenged/debated. How risk is understood rather than measured. How these approaches impact on the ability of the pensions and insurance industry to bear and manage risk. As well as this we have tried to understand where the profession stands in terms of thought leadership on economic issues i.e. does the profession just accept the orthodoxy as a given or is there a reasoned debate as to what is accepted as useful economic theory.
Speaker: Iain Clacher, Leeds University Business School
D3: Reflections from the Project Sponsor/Independent Expert on the UK’s largest ever Part VII Transfer
This session will have a particular focus on:
• Scheme – scoping the Scheme and combining, making Solvency II compliant and operationally simplifying multiple pre-existing schemes
• Process – managing the project over a 24 month period
• Regulatory engagement – lessons learned
• Benefit expectations – transitioning with-profits governance from the existing scheme PFMs into the current regulatory regime with PPFMs, WPA and WPC
• Benefit security – analysing the pre- and pro forma post-Scheme financial positions in the context of the implementation of Solvency II reporting with shifting regulatory approvals, approach to MA, VA and TMTP approvals post transfer.
• Reporting – scheme complexity weighed against the need for customer-friendly communication
• Policyholder communications – managing the mailing exercise and policyholder responses
Speakers: David King, EY and Rob Kerry, Aviva
D4: Running off Mature Pension Schemes
The commercial opportunities for the life sector for derisking UK defined benefit pension schemes are huge. To date around £80bn of risk has been insured but there remains some £2 trillion of exposures across UK pension schemes.
Key to leveraging those opportunities is an understanding of the activities and needs of those defined benefit pension schemes as they run off and mature
This session will present relevant analysis and findings from the Running Off Mature Schemes Working Party of the IFoA
Speaker: Costas Yiasoumi and Graham Wardle, Legal & General
D5: The Second Wave: A Case Study of a Wave 2 IMAP for a Large Mutual
Royal London is applying for Internal Model approval. This session will cover its experiences, challenges and solutions to date, including:
How does a Wave 2 IMAP differ to and benefit from the previous Wave 1 applications?
How does an Internal Model and an IMAP process differ for a large mutual company as compared with a large proprietary company?
How best to take advantage of the latest modelling approaches?
The business benefits and how these are being captured and implemented.
The session will be delivered jointly by Gary Warman, Royal London’s Head of IMAP, and Harvard Lee, KPMG, who has been assisting Royal London in this area.
Speakers: Harvard Lee, KPMG and Gary Warman, Royal London
D6: Proxy Modelling – An “In-Cycle” Solution With Least Squares Monte Carlo
Proxy models based on curve fitting are now a familiar part of the actuarial toolkit but the techniques continue to evolve.
In this session, we describe a fully integrated approach using Least Squares Monte Carlo enabling curves to be fitted and deployed in-cycle.
We will outline the methodology and associated technology required and then, via a case study with Royal London, discuss:
the practicalities of implementation
and the business benefits which the approach can deliver.
Speakers: Nick Jackson, Royal London, Russell Ward, Milliman and Shaun Gibbs, KPMG
D7: I Know What You Did Last Winter - Tales From Solvency II Public Disclosures
In the new world of Europe-wide public disclosures under Solvency II, we look at the key information we can glean from the first-time Solvency and Financial Condition Reports (SFCRs).This presentation will be of interest to financial reporting teams. It will also be of interest to company analysts and those looking to analyse their industry peers.
Speakers: Ciarain Kelly and Sinead Clarke, Milliman
D8: The Unhedgeables
Market consistent frameworks value insurance portfolios with reference to deep, liquid markets for instruments that replicate the portfolio’s characteristics. Where these conditions don't exist, adjustments – like the Risk Margin - need to be made to reflect the risks posed by such non-hedgeable exposures.
Base on a range of topical case studies (e.g. LPI, longevity, property) we examine how some insurers have moved to valuing and managing non-hedgeable risks using “real-world” models and assumptions.
Some knowledge of ALM topics, Solvency II and derivatives required.
Speakers: Daniel Blamont, Phoenix, Robin Thompson and Keith Law, NatWest Markets
D9: E-cigarettes – Good or Bad for Your Health?
E-cigarette usage has dramatically increased in recent years (2.9 million UK – ASH estimate, 2017). The impact on health is uncertain – but has been suggested to be 95% less risky; unknown impact around behavioural changes made by smokers; and public perception is confused!
There is an ongoing debate on the health impact for individuals which could potentially lead to a major contribution towards preventing premature death & disease that smoking currently causes in the UK. An IFoA working party was set up (consisting of a multi-disciplined team of insurance professionals including actuaries, underwriters and medical practitioners), to consider the impact on the insurance industry. This presentation will give an update on work of the IFoA e-cig working party
Speakers: Niel Daniels, SCOR Global Life and members of the E-cigarettes Working Party
D10: Managing Data – Understanding the Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”)
On May 26th 2018, the regulations around the handling of data fundamentally change and this will impact the Life insurance sector significantly. Personal data flows through many of our actuarial processes from pricing through to reserving and claims payment.
We will provide
insights into the background of the regulation and the changes it is bringing.
practical lessons on recent engagements undertaken and processes like pseudonymisation which are being used to manage the consequences
how data processing will be impacted and how one can operate within the legal requirements.
The presentation will be anchored around the customer lifecycle and how various processes are impacted both now and as firms move towards automation and change how they use technology.
Speakers: Neal Writer and James Tufts, EY
- Refreshments Thu, 23/11/2017 - 16:05 - 16:35 Afternoon refreshments and Exhibition
- Plenary session Thu, 23/11/2017 - 16:35 - 17:35 Plenary 3: Get ready for IFRS 17
Just recovering from Solvency II? If so, get ready for another large implementation project .. IFRS 17 is finally here!
The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) publish its long-awaited insurance contracts standard IFRS 17 in May, with an effective date of 2021. The UK Actuarial Profession’s permanent cross-practice Financial Reporting Group together with a former member of the IASB Board will provide:
- A summary of the IFRS 17 requirements and interactions with other accounting developments.
- Practical examples and implementation and operational considerations for common UK insurance products.
- An IASB perspective on IFRS 17 and their expectations for the new standard.
- Wider views on the what the new standard will mean for the global insurance industry.
Speakers: Anthony Coughlan, PwC, Richard Olswang, Prudential and Kamran Foroughi, Willis Towers Watson and Stephen Cooper, Former IASB board member
Speakers are also part of the IFoA’s Financial Reporting Group
- Workshop Thu, 23/11/2017 - 17:35 - 19:00 Delegate free time or optional workshop sessions
Optional workshops: 17.45 – 18.35
Optional workshop 1: Disruption of Thought (Diversity Advisory Group)
In times of change, the learners will inherit the earth while the learned will find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists" - Eric Hoffer, Philosopher and Author.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries of tomorrow faces change and unknown challenges. In this session we will consider the current and evolving landscape, and reflect on the threats and opportunities that lie ahead. Do we have the diversity of thought to meet the challenges ahead and how should we as individuals, organisations and members of the profession respond? We will debate how we need to disrupt our thinking, mind sets and internal biases in order to adapt.
Speakers: Rosalind Rossouw, Sun Life Financial of Canada (UK), Chika Aghadiuno, Aviva, Russell Borland, Leading Figures and Marjorie Ngwenya, President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
Optional workshop 2: The winds of change – and Taxation of Life Business (Taxation Working Party)
This presentation will set out relevant aspects of the political and economic background (Brexit, UK and American politics, industry consolidation, importance of life assurance tax receipts, etc) that influences taxation policy and hence influences the drivers of life assurance tax legislation.
It will also cover some key recent developments on all tax issues affecting life assurance including the recent change to the treatment of loss relief, the Budget (to the extent details are available) and developing thoughts on the impact of IFRS 17
Speakers: Lindsay J’afari Pak, PwC and Paul Turnbull
Attendance at the optional workshops are on a first come first served basis. When choosing your main programme workshops during the booking stage you will have an opportunity to book one of these optional workshops.
- Networking Thu, 23/11/2017 - 19:00 - 19:45 Drinks reception at the ICC
- Dinner Thu, 23/11/2017 - 19:45 - 23:55 Conference dinner with after dinner comedian followed by band
After dinner comedian:
Band: The Slowdown Family
- Registration Fri, 24/11/2017 - 08:30 - 09:00 Registration
- Plenary session Fri, 24/11/2017 - 09:00 - 10:00 Plenary 4: Cancer: Underwriting and Claims Perspectives
With reducing cardiovascular disease, cancer is the cause of a growing proportion of claims. This presentation will focus on current challenges relating to cancer, covering both the underwriting and claims adjudication dimensions.
Speakers: Claire Nolan and Andrew Parkinson, Swiss Re
- Transfer time Fri, 24/11/2017 - 10:00 - 10:15 Transfer time
- Workshop Fri, 24/11/2017 - 10:15 - 11:05 Workshop E
E1: IFRS17 – So How Exactly Will it Work for Existing UK 90/10 With-Profits Funds?
IFRS17 is coming but so far little attention has been given to how exactly it will work for the existing business in 90/10 with-profits funds. How do you work out the opening balance sheet or the profit recognition? How will it compare to (a) the cash transfer approach and (b) the EV approach? What volatility of earnings will there be?
In this session we will set out our understandings, ideas and views, by going through a detailed worked example for typical 90/10 fund and showing how it could work in practice and produce a commercially acceptable result.
The speakers will be John Jenkins (KPMG with-profits expert), Nigel Hayes (Aviva) and David Holliday (KPMG accountant and IFRS Foundation secondee).
Speakers: Nigel Hayes, Aviva, John Jenkins and David Holliday, KPMG
E2: Letter on Corpulence: One Actuary's Attempt at Carbohside & an Underwriter's View
Cleopatra bathed in milk to maintain her youthful appearance, but reports these days suggest children drink enough sugar for a cola bath. Obesity is at epidemic levels, but is this driven by lack of adherence to guidelines or is the guidance wrong?
We consider the impact that going against conventional dietary advice has had on one actuary. We look at the latest science, how this compares to official advice, and provide an overview of the medical UW profession's view on the topic.
Could there be a new way to tackle diabetes and the problem of obesity? What impact could this have on the underwriting of protection products?
Speakers: Chris Reynolds and Cillian Tierney, PartnerRe
E3: FX of Solvency II
The PRA made clear that they preferred annuity writers with non-Sterling denominated assets to use full-term cross-currency swaps to meet Matching Adjustment requirements, forcing some to move away from rolling hedging strategies.
We discuss the implications of rolling versus full-term hedges, including second-order risks and liquidity requirements. We ask what this means for firms’ ability to access overseas credit markets with their greater depth and the diversification benefits they provide.
Knowledge of derivatives and Matching Adjustment required.
Speakers: Neil Snyman, Aviva Investors, Andrew Kenyon and Simon Freedman, NatWest Markets
E4: Using Data Analytics to Revolutionise Underwriting
Mortgage related sales have been a major part of the protection industry's new business volumes for years. Increasing compliance requirements for mortgage brokers in recent years has left little time to sell the life insurance and other protection needed to give customers the peace of mind they require.
In this talk we will discuss a novel approach using data analytics techniques to speed up the underwriting journey and remove nearly all underwriting questions and investigations. We will show results from a case study of how Royal London and Gen Re have made it work in practice.
Speakers: Alastair Gerrard, Gen Re and Gwilym Morrison, Royal London
E5: Have We Had Enough of Experts?
The value experts bring has been challenged recently and this talk looks at the benefit and challenges of making use of experts. The talk considers this from an internal audit perspective where experts are often used and more generally for insurers. As actuaries our expertise brings value but it is important the expert judgment is clearly highlighted. Recent events have also highlighted the risk of expert “groupthink” and the talk looks at how that risk can be identified and managed.
Speakers: Andy Cox, Legal & General Group and James Latto, KPMG
E6: Gravitas & Levitas
Some people have a natural authority that’s often called gravitas. When they speak others listen. When they walk into a room others take notice. Others have levitas – a playful quality that can lighten the mood.
Some people can exhibit both gravitas and levitas, but many default to one or the other – while some come across as bland, lacking either characteristic. This workshop will help them continue their professional development by giving them a thorough understanding of gravitas and levitas – what they are, why they matter and how to go about developing them.
Speakers: Steve Bavister, Speak First
E7: How Has Equivalence Impacted the Reinsurance Market?
We will set out the different types of third-country equivalence that can be granted and give an overview of those granted so far. We will then explore how equivalence has impacted the reinsurance market for three types of entities:
European companies considering reinsurance
Non-European companies without subsidiaries in Europe
Regulators within the EU
We will then discuss some of the advantages that can be offered by reinsurers in equivalent countries such as Bermuda, bringing the insights of a newly established reinsurer in Bermuda. We will also cover how the capital rules in Bermuda are changing and how this may impact the reinsurance market in Bermuda.
Speakers: Manfred Maske, Monument Re, Nora Brauch and David Burton, Ernst & Young
E8: A New, Cohort-based Mortality Model
The speaker proposes a new cohort-based mortality model to smooth previous mortality experience and forecast future mortality rates.
The model offers a novel concept to consider mortality modelling. Its aim is to capture complicated age- and cohort-specific patterns in future mortality rates with the projection of a single index. This makes it straightforward to project future mortality rates with output which is intuitive and easy to communicate.
Useful insight is gained by calibrating the model on mortality data from different countries. This includes insight from a different view of cohort effects, identifying a new 'golden cohort' in the UK and other countries.
The presentation ends with conclusions on the model and its output, and thoughts for future development and extensions.
Speaker: John Kingdom, Aviva
E9: All Annuitants Were Made Equal, but Some are More Equal than Others
In the context of pricing and reserving for annuitant portfolios some annuitants carry more weight than others. Reflecting this in baseline longevity is now commonplace, with increasingly sophisticated underwriting methods. In contrast longevity improvements are at best split by gender, and calibrated to the national lives based data.
This session will use a series of case studies to explore how taking a more granular approach to longevity projections can offer valuable commercial insights. We will conclude with a discussion on the practicalities of adopting a more granular approach, including regulatory issues and what perspective it might give for YE2017 reserving calculations.
Speakers: Alice Woolley, RMS and Steven Baxter, Hymans Robertson
E10: Will Your Investments Fall off a Cliff?
The Paris Agreement in December 2015 has focused minds on global climate change targets. Failure of markets to account for the possibility of a faster transition to a low carbon economy could lead to some asset values falling off a cliff.
This talk explores recent developments in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors, which measure the sustainability and ethical impact of a firm. They are increasingly being used to guide investment decisions and help firms:
- avoid assets becoming stranded
- reduce volatility of returns
- align with global climate change agenda and intergenerational fairness
- improve marketability to conscious Millennial investors.
Speakers: Rob Nakielny, EY and Anthony Plotnek, Retirement Advantage
- Refreshments Fri, 24/11/2017 - 11:05 - 11:40 Morning refreshments and exhibition
- Workshop Fri, 24/11/2017 - 11:40 - 12:30 Workshop F
F1: Drivers of Future Longevity - A Medical Perspective
A Chief Medical Officer and Actuary debate the outlook for longevity and what the future drivers could be. What do changes in the cause of death tell us about potential areas for future improvement? What could developments in genomics and personalised medicine mean, and who will benefit from these? Will the likes of wearables actually make people healthier or are they already yesterday’s news.
Or are we on the road to nowhere? Perhaps headwinds from obesity, alcohol consumption, sedentary lifestyles and funding cuts mean longevity gains are a historic phenomenon.
Speakers: Mariette Thulliez, PartnerRe and Dr Peter Miller
F2: Death by Actuarial Reports
There is no getting away from it - actuarial reports are a fact of life and are here to stay.
Important and material information can easily get lost in long technical and “boring” reports. This makes it difficult for report users such as committees and boards to identify the key issues, and increases the risk of suboptimal decision-making.
It is unlikely that any actuarial report will ever win the Man Booker prize, however, there are many things you can do to make the writing process easier and make the report less dreaded by its users.
Speakers: Kim Durniat and Amit Lad, Barnett Waddingham
F3: What is the Future for Financial Reinsurance Under Solvency II?
The session will cover how financial reinsurance has been used by the life insurance market under Solvency 1 and how this has changed under Solvency 2, as well as bring insights into the structures currently considered by the market and their use.
We will start by explaining how financial reinsurance worked under Solvency 1 and how this has changed under Solvency 2. Even with different impacts, we will discuss why this structure can still be attractive to insurers, e.g. for liquidity purposes. (Re)insurers have also considered monetising other items of the Solvency 2 balance sheet, such as the risk margin. Finally we will discuss a case study of the use of financial reinsurance in the context of M&A activity.
Speakers: Nadia Donnelly, Munich Re, Nora Brauch and David Burton, Ernst & Young
F4: Modelling Longevity Risks From the Primary Care Data (ARC Funded Project)
We provide an update on the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre funded grant on Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data For Understanding Longevity And Morbidity Risks (2016-2020). To determine the main factors affecting longevity and dynamics of their changes, we are using the subset of the THIN primary care database comprising 3.5 million patients born on or before 1960.
In our previous work (Gitsels et al., 2016) we have studied longevity improvement due to the widening of the prescription of statins, the only known longevity-improving drug in general use. Here we discuss methodology and provide two case-studies: one on the role of intensive blood pressure control for longevity improvement, and the second on life expectancy after acute myocardial infarction (AMI).
Speakers: Elena Kulinskaya and Lisanne Gitsels, University of East Anglia
F5: Beyond the Hype: The Hard Work Behind Analytics Success
Drawing more information out of your data gives you material competitive advantage — but what do you actually need to have in place to do this effectively? This talk will describe how PartnerRe set up their analytics team, the infrastructure we use to support them (hint: it’s all free software), and how this same infrastructure is also adding value to our pricing and reserving teams.
Speakers: Markus Senn and Alexis Iglauer, PartnerRe
F6: The TMTP – Helpful, but Painful: The Approaches and Risk Considerations for TMTP Recalculation
The recalculation of the TMTP has become a useful capital management tool for UK insurers, but it comes with its own risks and complications.
Nick Ford will discuss the various different approaches currently being taken by the industry to perform this recalculation based on the results of a survey of the industry.
David Harrison will discuss the complications of the TMTP recalculation when acquiring new blocks of business based on his experience of this. This will focus on the complications and impacts from a Risk perspective.
Speakers: Nick Ford, KPMG and David Harrison, ReAssure
F7: Solving the Pensions Conundrum
There have been various attempts in recent years to kick-start pensions savings (eg pension freedoms, secondary annuities, LISA) but still savings levels are below those needed.
The Association of Consulting Actuaries presents its thinking on what is currently wrong with the pensions savings model, why those recent ideas have not worked/created the buzz hoped for, look at what is planned by the government and comment on the likely impact of these ideas for both individuals and insurers.
Speakers: Gareth Boyd, Willis Towers Watson, Chintan Gandhi, Aon Hewitt, Scott Eason and Tracey McManus, Barnett Waddingham
F8: How do UK-based Life Insurers Compare Versus European Peers?
Drawing on experience rating and speaking to insurance companies across Europe we will discuss:
Similarities and differences in the challenges facing insurers in different countries & their responses
Why some life insurance markets are considered higher risk than others
How Fitch expects international competition between global insurance groups to evolve
Speakers: Sam Mageed and Willem Loots, Fitch Ratings
F9: The Modelling Implications of IFRS17
The talk will consider the methodology differences between IFRS17 and Solvency II, considering how modelling systems will need to be adapted relative to current setups.
It will include numeric examples for sample products to help aid understanding.
More detailed consideration will be given to some of the more interesting aspects of the change including:
The one off setup exercise for existing business reserves
Additional future valuation exercises on basis changes
Reporting of profit releases
New data and assumption requirements.
Speakers: David Pond, Willis Towers Watson and Ben Thomas, Just
F10: Blockchain-An Emerging Technology With Wide Potential Application for Insurance
Blockchain and Smart Contracts is an emerging technology with potentially wide application across insurance. Blockchain's ability to enable transaction flows across multiple layers of counterparties could potentially redefine the standard for digital transaction processing. Swiss Re developed IGR (Intra Group Retrocession) prototype is the base for industry's first collaboration on blockchain to experiment jointly and to drive standards for industrywide adoption.
Speaker: Richard Phipps, Swiss Re
- Refreshments Fri, 24/11/2017 - 12:30 - 13:30 Lunch and Exhibition
- Workshop Fri, 24/11/2017 - 13:30 - 14:20 Workshop G
G1: Life Products: What Can the UK Learn From Asia?
The Asian life insurance market is booming, with growing new business volumes and significant product innovation. With-profits business is particularly successful in Asia.
What range of products is being written in Asia and what can UK life insurers and UK life actuaries learn from this?
Are there Asian products which would work in the UK?
Is it just down to differing regulatory standards or is the UK just missing a trick?
The speakers for this presentation will be from HSBC (leading player in Asia) and KPMG.
Speakers: Diana Cascardo, HSBC, Andy Chan and Steven Gin, KPMG
G2: With-Profits Transformation: Improving Stakeholder Outcomes Through Simplification
With the majority of with-profits funds in decline, managing expenses, ensuring fairness, and reducing levels of expertise and focus within company leadership teams are all factors that are becoming more challenging over time. These factors are making with-profits transformation more attractive for all stakeholders. This session will provide insight on the latest thinking in the industry, and why more and more companies are looking to a more radical transformation of their with-profits funds and products.
Speakers: Trevor Fannin, Willis Towers Watson and Brian Murray, Royal London
G3: Financial Education – Fool’s Errand or Answer to the Retirement Adequacy Challenge?
With pensions engagement an ongoing challenge, this talk picks up the theme highlighted by a number of Independent Governance Committees in their reports around the need to engage and educate customers and runs in a debate style format – can education be the answer to customer engagement or do we simply need to make saving mandatory to defuse the retirement adequacy timebomb? Gregg McClymont (ex Labour Shadow Pensions Minister and now Head of Retirement at Aberdeen Asset Management) brings his knowledge of international retirement practices globally and is supported by Sandy Trust (IFOA Scottish Board Financial Education lead).
Speakers: Sandy Trust, Grant Thornton and Gregg McClymont, Aberdeen Asset Management
G4: Predictive Mortality Modelling: A Twitter Case Study
Language expressed on Twitter characterises community-level health status and correlates with disease prevalence in defined geographical spaces. This presentation will demonstrate how, using machine learning algorithms for the analysis of tweets related to psychological status, cancer or cardiovascular disease, we can predict cancer/cardiovascular mortality for defined populations.
Speaker: Severine Rion, Swiss Re
G5: IFRS17 – Doing the Hard Work
Comparing and contrasting a 'top down' against a 'bottom up' approach to implementing IFRS 17 in a global organisation. The presentation will offer some insights into the progress made to date on the road to IFRS17 implementation, along with sharing some of the challenges encountered. The bottom up approach taken is allowing the organisation valuable insights into methodology and technological challenges presented by IFRS17.
Speakers: Adrian Parris, MetLife and Patrick Rowland, KPMG
G6: The First Year End of Solvency II Reporting for a Large Multinational Group
The year end 2016 financial reporting cycle was the first under the Solvency II regime, marking the culmination of many years of planning and preparation and the transition from dry run processes into live reporting.
This talk will describe a number of the key actuarial themes that arose in respect of voluntary disclosures and Pillar 3 reporting in the context of Prudential plc.
It will cover how these themes were considered by the Group actuarial team and by the audit team, and draw lessons to learn for the next year end.
Speakers: Simon Hogley, KPMG and Liam Carney, Prudential
G7: Critical Illness: Emerging Trends
Medical developments continue apace, with recent innovation including, inter alia, "breath biopsies" and a bra that detects cancer. This presentation will look at the latest trends in disease incidence and diagnosis and consider the pricing challenges for critical illness that are emerging as a result.
Speakers: Aisling Kennedy and Nisha Patel, Swiss Re
G8: Update from the Equity Release Mortgages Working Party (ERMWP)
Commercial and regulatory background to ERM market
Key points we fed into the PRA consultation response and any further update since then
Results of our survey of current market practices in the valuation of ERM: assumptions used; credit rating methodologies and differences between unstructured and structured solutions
Current findings on different approaches taken to value no-negative equity guarantees
Speakers: Tom Kenny, Just and Gina Craske, KPMG, members of the Equity Release Mortgages Working Party
G9: Women in Finance Charter: Does it Go Far Enough?
Diversity, equality and inclusiveness are keywords which are proven to creating a more balanced, more fulfilling, and more productive working environment. Since the introduction of the HM Treasury’s Women in Finance Charter in 2016, over 120 firms have signed up to achieve gender parity at all levels and build a more balanced and fair financial services industry. However, recent research has shown the average age of women leaving the profession is significantly lower than their male counterparts.
OAC has undertaken a survey of actuaries to understand the key issues affecting this gender disparity. Attendees will better understand the gender issues within the workplace and determine how their firm can approach things differently to both retain and attract female actuarial talent.
Speakers: Claire Lightwood and Cara Spinks, OAC
G10: Modelling of the Market Procyclicality of the [life] Insurance Industry
Life insurers are material investors in financial markets, and therefore have the capacity, at least in theory, to influence financial market prices and therefore market functioning. This session will outline work conducted by the Bank of England to estimate how Solvency II regulations might affect UK life insurers’ investment behaviour. In particular, the work assesses the impact of regulations on insurers’ propensity to invest procyclically – that is, sell as prices fall and buy as prices rise – together with their willingness to provide stable finance for long-term investment.
Speaker: Graeme Douglas, Bank of England
- Transfer time Fri, 24/11/2017 - 14:20 - 14:35 Transfer time
- Plenary session Fri, 24/11/2017 - 14:35 - 15:35 Plenary 5: Actuarial Interaction and Challenge
The Profession Skills Working Party will provide their thoughts on how our communication skills and interaction with others, and doing it professionally, is an important aspect of being an actuary. Led by Malcolm Slee, they will illustrate some pros and cons and there will be audience participation. They will also consider the risks around new ideas and how these should be communicated.
- Plenary session Fri, 24/11/2017 - 15:35 - 15:45 Closing remarks and conference close
Papers will be available to download 2 weeks before the start of the conference.