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Actuarial Research Centre (ARC)

The ARC is the IFoA’s global network of researchers from around the world. A core part of the ARC is the delivery of industry-relevant research. View some of the online material arising from ARC research below. All videos are free to watch and eligible for CPD.
2019

ARC 2019 Mortality and Longevity Symposium, Longevity and Morbidity Risk programme
4-6 June 2019

This ARC research programme is application driven, with impact and innovation in the pensions and insurance industries and beyond as its primary aims. In this video, Professor Andrew Cairns (Principal Investigator) discusses his work on LSOA mortality data and shares some findings on variations in mortality rates (by socio-economic groups and by regions) in England.

Joint CIA, IFoA, SOA Webcast: Measuring Pension Plan Risk from an Economic Capital Perspective
Wednesday 15 May 2019

Jointly sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries, and CIA, this webcast will present research that compares the risk profiles of pension plans in the UK, the US, and Canada.

At the end of this session, attendees will be able to:

  • Identify the key items that affect the financial risk of a defined benefit pension plan;
  • Compare the financial risk implications of different pension plan designs; and
  • Evaluate the impact of alternative asset mix policies on the financial risk of a pension plan.

Economic capital, the 0.5th percentile result of a stochastic projection, is the primary risk measure employed. The research examines not only the difference in economic capital requirements between typical plans in the three countries, but also its sensitivity to changes in asset allocation, contributions, and starting funded status. This webcast is part of a wider international research programme, co-sponsored by the IFoA, looking into the impact ageing populations have on asset values over long time periods and considering the potential impact on large pension plans in Canada, the UK and the United States. The research is being conducted by the University of Waterloo (Canada) and the University of Kent (UK). Further details about the research can be found here.

Speakers: Stephen Bonnar (FCIA), University of Waterloo 
Aniketh Pittea and Pradip Tapadar, School of Mathematics, Statistics & Actuarial Science, University of Kent

ARC Event: ERM Results Launch
Thursday 28 February 2019

The IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) held a research results launch event on the subject of Equity Release Mortgages (ERM): No Negative Equity Guarantee (NNEG) at Staple Inn Hall, London.

In July 2018, the IFoA and the Association of British Insurers (ABI), through the ARC agreed to jointly commission an independent piece of research to determine appropriate methods for determining ERM cash flows and their value.

The University of Kent led by Professor Radu Tunaru (Senior Researcher) was awarded the contract to carry out this piece of research, which is shared here.

 

2018

ARC Webinar Series 2018: Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making
Thursday 4 October 2018
This webinar explores the decision-making of institutional investors, in particular insurers and pension schemes, and the biases that may affect their investment decisions.

Sponsored by Aon and Invesco

Speakers: Professor Peter Ayton (City, University of London) and Dr Iain Clacher (University of Leeds).

ARC Webinar Series 2018: Minimising Longevity and Investment Risk while Optimising Future Pension Plans
Wednesday 3 October 2018
This webinar covers the development of pension product designs that keep customers' needs at the forefront, with a real income in retirement that minimises costs for the customer.

Speakers: Dr Catherine Donnelly (Heriot Watt University).

ARC Webinar Series 2018: Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk
Tuesday 2 October 2018
This webinar is about developing a new generation of mortality and morbidity models, with a specific focus on the drivers for mortality.

Speakers: Dr Torsten Kleinow (Heriot- Watt University) and Dr George Streftaris (Heriot-Watt University)

2018 ARC Webinar Series: Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding Longevity and Morbidity
Monday 17 September 2018
In this webinar new statistical and actuarial methods in the use of Big Data are discussed, in the context of health and wider applications.

Speakers: Professor Elena Kulinskaya (University of East Anglia) and Co-Investigator Nigel Wright (Aviva).

ARC Sessional Reseach Event: How Medical Advances and Health Interventions Will Shape Future Longevity
Monday 25 June 2018
In this ARC sessional Professor Elena Kulinskaya will discuss her paper How Medical Advances and Health Interventions Will Shape Future Longevity which shows how estimated mortality hazards can be translated to hypothetical changes in life expectancies at the individual and population levels.
ARC Sessional Research Event:Self-selection and Risk Sharing in a Modern World of Life-Long Annuities
Monday 14 May 2018
In this ARC sessional Professor Jens Perch Nielsen and his co-authors (from Cass Business School) find new solutions to three of the most current and challenging problems in pension research.
ARC Sessional Research Event: Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market after One Decade
29 January 2018
This paper updates Living with Mortality written more than a decade ago. It describes how the longevity risk transfer market has developed over the intervening period, and, in particular, how insurance-based solutions – buy-outs, buy-ins and longevity insurance – triumphed over the capital markets solutions that were expected to dominate at the time.

 

2017 ARC Webinar Series

Minimising Longevity and Investment Risk while optimising Future Pension Plans 14 June 2017
This webinar is part of a series to showcase three large research programmes currently running through the ARC, which seeks to address some of the significant challenges in actuarial science.
Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding Longevity and Morbidity 13 June 2017
From this webinar you will learn about the objectives of this research programme and some of the early developments since its commencement in autumn 2016.

Speakers: 
Professor Elena Kulinskaya (University of East Anglia) – Principal Investigator for the research programme
Nigel Wright (Aviva)

Facilitator:
Professor Andrew Cairns (Director of the Actuarial Research Centre)

Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk 17 May 2017
Developing a new generation of mortality and morbidity models, with a specific focus on the drivers for mortality.
Speaker: Professor Andrew Cairns, Heriot-Watt University

 

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Events calendar

  • TIGI 2020 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)

    Webinar Series
    22 June 2020 - 7 July 2020

    Spaces available

    Technical Issues in General Insurance provides content across all key areas of the general insurance sector whilst also offering cross-practice area technical topic deep-dives.

  • Spaces available

    Technical Issues in General Insurance

    Across the General Insurance market actuarial pricing tools are being migrated from Excel to web-based technologies. Web based pricing technology offers many synergies with AI and Machine Learning. But they are often hampered by poor design and practically always perform worse than their Excel counterparts!

    The following will be presented: 

  • Spaces available

    Offering insight on the 'New Normal', this webinar shares how the arsenal of weaponry at the disposal of ethical hackers is being deployed by those intent on breaching organisational security. The webinar is for all employees that would like a cyber context of what defines the “New Normal” and how it exposes an organisation.

  • Spaces available

    In this talk we cover the practicalities of implementing ESG within real asset investment decisions. Capital deployed in real assets is invested for a long term and has far reaching impact on the environment and society.  However, implementing ESG into real asset investment decisions is not straightforward and requires a different approach to public market assets.

  • Spaces available

    A practical and theoretical look at risk from wider perspectives, drawing on theories and examples from other fields, as well as social experiments, the session aims to stimulate members to consider information asymmetry, bias, Bayesian methods, behavioural finance and behavioural psychology when determining pension scheme risk. 

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series

    This webinar will provide an overview of how and why we built a Death Toolbox using Shiny.  This includes a live demonstration of the tool that enables a user to explore mortality datasets without knowing specialist coding techniques.

  • Spaces available

    Technical Issues in General Insurance webinar series. Lloyd’s will be presenting on the recent Casualty Market Study that was conducted across a section of the market. This study looked at the Non-Marine General Liability, Directors & Officers and Medical Malpractice from an underwriting, reserving and claims perspective. The presentation will cover the reasons for why the Study was conducted, the approach taken to determine the focus classes and participants, the key general findings as well as the next steps that Lloyd’s are proposing to take.

  • Spaces available

    An update from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI). Content will focus on the work of the Self-administered Pensions Schemes (SAPS) Mortality Committee and the Mortality Projections Committee and will cover the most relevant and up-to-date outputs.

  • Spaces available

    The PPF’s Purple Book provides the most comprehensive data on the UK universe of Defined Benefit (DB) pension schemes in the private sector.  Analysing how this landscape has changed over time shows that whilst the risk profile of DB schemes has reduced underfunding has persisted.  The session will explore these trends and provide an insight into how funding may evolve in the future under a number of our modelled scenarios.   

  • Spaces available

    The IFoA is running a webinar on Thursday 9 July 2020 which will focus on the challenges and issues facing defined contribution savers who wish to access illiquid investments.

    Our speakers will provide perspectives from their diverse experience, including DC fund implementation, platforms, master trusts, the role of trustees, regulation, and parallels with other fund types. They will then come together in a panel discussion with audience interaction. 

    The webinar is likely to be of interest to actuaries working across the spectrum of financial services, including investment advisers, asset managers, insurers, fund platforms and DC master trusts.

  • Spaces available

    An online webinar delivered by John Taylor, immediate past-President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries who will look at the prospects for the actuarial profession in the era of unprecedented technological innovation.

  • Spaces available

    In this webinar you will hear first-hand from two lead authors; Louise Pryor - President Elect of the IFoA, Chair of the London Climate Change Partnership and Non-Executive Director of the Ecology Building Society. Paul Pritchard – Former IEMA Board Member with a focus on financial services and value chains. Paul also served as a Fellow at the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. This webinar will provide key insights for all professionals interested in understanding and engaging with climate related financial disclosures.

  • Spaces available

    This webinar is intended to raise awareness of the shifting landscape of climate liability risk and what it means for actuaries, including how it impacts on their professional and legal duties. Presentations will cover the legal risks around climate change for investment consultants and actuaries advising DB pension schemes as well as consideration of climate risk for insurers.

  • Spaces available

    Climate change risks are likely to become material for many risk management and investment decisions. This will require to incorporate explicitly climate change in the tools used for risk management and investment decisions. At present existing climate change tools are often too crude for decision making.

  • Current Issues in Life Assurance (CILA) Webinar series

    Webinar Series
    15 July 2020 - 3 August 2020

    Spaces available

    CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual 'Life' calendar. Due to COVID-19 we are running the programme as a series of webinars covering topics aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries and those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe.

  • Spaces available

    Current Issues in Life Assurance

    For annuity writers, a key challenge is the need to fund capital-consumptive new business strain (NBS) as a consequence of writing the business intended to fund future distributions.

    Reinsurance, investment strategy and capital provision all have roles to play. Here, we:

  • Spaces available

    Current Issues in Life Assurance

    Mortality in 2020 is now dominated by one thing, although – in our future-focused world – the pandemic is just one of many mortality considerations.  In this session, three well-regarded mortality/longevity specialists provide an overview of:

  • Spaces available

    Because of Covid-19, forecasters predict a severe recession in 2020, followed by a V or U-shaped recovery. This impacts both individuals and companies. However, compared to previous recessions, the impact on banks of higher credit losses should be mitigated to some extent by government actions. 

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series

    This session will provide an overview of the Population Health Management Working Party's research including defining impactability and impactability modelling, discussing some examples of specific modelling approaches, considering the practical challenges across the NHS as well as wider public perception and ethical issues.

  • Spaces available

    Many actuaries consider career opportunities in the Finance and Investment practice area after having started off in more traditional actuarial roles such as valuations, capital management or pricing. This session is aimed at helping actuaries to better understand roles in Finance and Investment and how they can fine tune their skills to pursue such careers.

  • Mortality and Longevity Webinar Series 2020

    Webinar Series
    22 July 2020 - 10 August 2020

    Spaces available

    Due to COVID-19, we are running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 22nd July.

    This webinar series will provide topical and practical updates and discussion on the latest thinking and innovations in mortality and longevity, and is designed to be very accessible to a broad range of experience.

     

  • Spaces available

    Predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on postcode-level consumer classification are widely used for life insurance underwriting. However, these are socio-economic models not directly related to health information. Similar to precision medicine, precision life insurance should aim to tailor policy pricing/reserving to the individual health characteristics of each client.

  • Spaces available

    This webinar has been re-scheduled from its original date of the 1st July. Although ESG has many buyers across the asset allocation community, from pension funds to sovereign wealth funds, it still hasn’t found its place within the core asset management strategy desks where the money is actually invested. The problem as well as the opportunity is Fixed Income. Plenty of strategies exist for incorporating ESG within Equities, from screening, integration to a combination. ESG has picked up relatively quickly within Equities with rating,indices created using ESG factors. This talk will discuss how we price a quantifiable ESG credit risk premium and make it alpha worthy in a strategy. 

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series

    With the rising prevalence of dementia, how can we manage this risk effectively and can insurance do more? Matt Singleton, Ageing Lead at Swiss Re, will cover these topics and demonstrate how insurance could help people address their concerns.

  • Spaces available

    Current Issues in Life Assurance

    This talk will look at a range of such techniques (e.g. mass lapse risk transfer, contract boundaries, risk margin relief, non-standard longevity risk transfer) that have been applied or considered by UK and EU insurers, and the pros and cons of each.

     

  • Spaces available

    Current Issues in Life Assurance.

    The International Association of Insurance Supervisors announced on 14 November 2019 the adoption of v2.0 of the global Insurance Capital Standard (ICS) which will undergo confidential reporting for 5 years starting from 2020. This session will include specific experiences from Legal and General (L&G) as well as global industry perspectives from EY.

  • Spaces available

    Current Issues in Life Assurance

    This session will cover the PRA supervisory statement on financial impacts related to climate change, industry insights into PRA climate risk business plans, examples climate risk strategy setting out key workstreams and activity steps for successful execution, an overview of a climate risk strategy execution timeline and the future.     

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. Using new and unique research and data from the UK, US, Sweden and China, this presentation investigates how consumers use the internet through their insurance journey and analyzes the role culture and generation plays in their online behaviour. We use this research to show the online landscape for insurance sales in the UK and suggest ways to shape new products and effectively engage with the consumer who is buying them.

  • Spaces available

    Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for Gen Re Life/Health Research and Development, Dr John O'Brien, will discuss the impacts of Gene Modification for life/health insurance. 

  • Spaces available

    As an industry, it has been important to be able to look to the future to identify the next quantifiable risk. In this session, I will explore some of the less tangible, but none-the-less concerning risks to future health, such as the health risks associated with exposure to pesticides, ingestion of plastic in the food chain, and the hazards of indoor air pollution through exposure to volatile organic compounds.

  • Spaces available

    The working party will help the industry to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes and excess mortality is considered, including the need to understand the underwriting implications as treatments improve, and potentially to develop new products that are tailored to those with diabetes.

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. Modelling the structure and trends of cancer morbidity risk is important for pricing and reserving in related health insurance fields such as critical illness insurance and care provision. We model the dynamics of cancer incidence over time in different regions in England, using 1981-2016 ONS data. The modelling allows estimation of cancer rates at various age, year, gender and region levels, following a Bayesian setting to account for statistical uncertainty. Our analysis indicates significant regional variation in cancer incidence rates. 

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. In this talk we will outline the steps Aviva took in pulling together our first large-scale disclosures on the exposure of our business to climate change published in March 2019; in line with the recommendations of the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. After touching on why insurers have such an important role in climate change, we'll cover a brief “how-to” guide for those who have not yet embarked on thinking about these topics before giving a case study of how the learnings from a TCFD disclosure exercise can be applied to investment portfolios.

  • Spaces available

    Part of the Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020 webinar series. 

    The insurance industry currently underwrites customers with diabetes based on a range of factors, medical expertise and various medical studies. The work undertaken by the Diabetes Working Party would help the industry to approach this using current research findings to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes is considered. This includes the need to understand the underwriting implications as treatments improve, and potentially to develop new products that are tailored to those with diabetes. This webinar will present our latest findings in the management of this important chronic condition which will include research in collaboration with the ARC.