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Effects of 'limits to growth' on financial markets

This call for research closed on 12 August 2011 and the content on this page is for information only

Background

By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today (and may hit 10.1bn by the year 2100 according to a recent United nations projection). Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life. Economic growth is seen as being a pre-requisite for the well-being of this increased global population. The World Bank projects (World Bank, The Road to 2050) a 385% increase in global GDP by 2050.

The objective of the research is to shed light on the following:

  1. Actuaries well-understand that physical growth cannot continue indefinitely. The mathematics of exponential growth, as illustrated by compound interest, tells us this. What happens if that economic growth does not continue for the reasons outlined above either regionally or globally
  2. The historical perspective has been that technological development and the advancement of human knowledge drives economic growth. What is the risk that resource or environmental constraints will outweigh improving technology and constrain growth, in a timescale relevant to our (and an actuaries’ clients) generation?
  3. Investigate further the relationships between capital (financial and human), complexity, energy, money and GDP from a macro-economic perspective?
  4. What would financial markets look like in a prolonged period with the absence of economic growth? How would interest rates, credit spreads, equity risk premia, discount rates, inflation and mortality be likely affected?

We envisage the research to be in two broad parts:

Part 1 – Investigation of limits to growth:

  • energy availability
  • energy security
  • climate change
  • population changes
  • environmental degradation, water scarcity, food prices; and
  • resource depletion.

There are a number of separate questions here:

  • Is further economic growth desirable for rich nations, or does the risk of growth outweigh the benefits?
  • Is further economic growth through the 21st century possible?
  • Is it possible over the long term to have rich nations experiencing economic stagnant growth (perhaps flipping between low growth and recession) while ‘developing nations’ grow more rapidly?

The research should cover, inter alia, the following topics:

  • A comprehensive literature review of the economics of “limits to growth”
  • What do we mean by economic growth? Is it possible/useful to break down the
  • impediments to growth into four categories – abrupt and continuous, local and universal? If so, how could this to be done?
  • Using advanced statistics quantify the links between economic growth, energy consumption, population growth, commodity and food prices, food production, availability of fresh water
  • Dependence of the world’s financial system on economic growth (current system is debtbased whereby money is ‘loaned’ into existence – repayment with interest requires economic growth and/or inflation)
  • Evidence regarding ‘peak’ oil and other constraints on the net energy input to the global economy
  • The capital intensity of modern economies. One of the 'Limits to Growth's key predictions as limits are approached they will be experienced as an increase in capital intensity i.e. each unit of production will require more capital input. Is there evidence for this now? At what point would increasing capital intensity cause economic growth to become uneconomic?
  • Has this increased to the point where growth in the developed world has become uneconomic?

Part 2 – What would happen to financial markets if economics was a “zero-sum game”

The second section of the research is to focus on the actuarial implications of the slow-down or cessation of, and regional variations in, global economic growth. It will be necessary to have some actuarial input for this section.

The practical impact of zero-growth on financial markets at a regional and global scale with particular emphasis on the following (not an exhaustive list):

  • Discount rates
  • Equity risk premia
  • Credit spreads
  • Social upheaval - how may it affect risk management; changes in attitudes to making insurance claims
  • Inflation expectations
  • Mortality, morbidity.

 

Contact Details

If you have any questions or wish to discuss any aspect of our funding for member-led research please contact the Research and Knowledge Team:

arc@actuaries.org.uk

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  • SIAS Event: CMI Update

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    1 April 2020

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    We are sorry. This event has now been cancelled.

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    Finally, a note on how this may affect actuarial pricing, reserving and capital.

    Learning objectives: Business knowledge of reinsurance renewal outcomes and the main drivers

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  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (29 April 2020)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    29 April 2020

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  • Professional Skills Training - London (29 April 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    29 April 2020

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    A Trusted Profession

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  • CANCELLED The Global Actuarial Profession

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    30 April 2020

    Spaces available

    We are sorry that this event has been cancelled.

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    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    4 May 2020

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  • KSS event: Technology: A red-eyed Terminator or an actuary’s best friend?

     Hymans Robertson, Exchange Place 1, 1 Semple Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8BL
    4 May 2020

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  • Finance and Investment Conference 2020

    Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE
    05-05 May 2020
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    The environmental, social and governance (ESG) space is growing rapidly and increasingly moving centre stage. In many cases, it is now an essential part of policy and central to the way stakeholders make decisions for the long term to ensure retention of clients, manage risk better, and ensure more economically efficient and sustainable investment returns.

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    The IFoA’s policy regarding Coronavirus is designed to safeguard the well being of those who attend IFoA events. Find out more. 

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (19 May 2020)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    19 May 2020

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  • Professional Skills Training - London (19 May 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    19 May 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

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  • CILA 2020

    Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE
    20 May 2020

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  • Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020

    The Grand Brighton, 97-99 Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FW
    02-03 June 2020
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    The Protection, Health and Care Conference is an annual conference aimed at all insurance professionals with a passion for harnessing insurance risk in their organisations.

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  • Mortality and Longevity 2020

    1 Birdcage Walk, Westminster, London SW1H 9JJ
    08-08 June 2020
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  • Professional Skills Training - London (10 June 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ       
    10 June 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (17 June 2020)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    17 June 2020

    Spaces available

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  • Professional Skills Training - London (18 June 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ   
    18 June 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Pensions Conference 2020

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    18-19 June 2020
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  • IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur

    CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    24-25 June 2020
    Spaces available

    This event has been postponed. A new date will be announced.

    The IFoA's policy regarding COVID-19 is designed to safeguard the well-being of members and employees. As stated within the policy, the IFoA is reviewing its events programme on a case-by-case basis.

    To this end the IFoA and their strategic partner, the AIR, have taken the decision to postpone this year's Asia Conference. A new date will be announced pending further reviews over the following months.