In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
For any library enquiries please contact:
We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
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Building Appropriate Trust and Maintaining Integrity as a Non-Executive Director - Edinburgh
Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA1 April 2020
We are sorry that this Professional Skills event has been cancelled.The IFoA's policy regarding COVID-19 is designed to safeguard the well-being of members and employees. As stated within the policy, the IFoA is reviewing its events programme on a case-by-case basis.
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SIAS Event: CMI Update
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ1 April 2020We are sorry. This event has now been cancelled.
Following the release of the updated CMI Mortality Projection Model, CMI_2019, the CMI Mortality Projections Committee will lead a discussion on future mortality improvements.
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Finance and Investment Webinar: Investing in Private Credit – An Investment Manager’s Perspective
Webinar3 April 2020
In the webinar, Stuart Hitchcock, Head of Portfolio Management for Private Credit, within LGIM Real Assets, will provide some insight into the nature of the private credit markets. Discussion will evolve around development of the markets and lending landscape, key investment characteristics including structural and legal protections, public vs private investments, advantages and drawbacks for borrowers, and attractiveness for investors.
The webinar will also focus on describing the investment process such as origination through execution, credit, structure, pricing, on-going asset management, portfolio construction within private markets.
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Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2020
Webinars22 April 2020
Due to the COVID-19, we will be running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 22 April. CIGI is a well-established one-day seminar designed to increase awareness and encourage discussion on a variety of topical issues across the general insurance industry.
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CIGI Webinar - Jumping the Gap - Updating Embedded Systems
Webinar22 April 2020InsurTech headlines are often big statements, which seem impossible to many working in the sector day-to-day. How can actuaries implement new systems, keep the value from legacy systems, deliver BAU and not require the resources of three teams?
This talk:
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CIGI Webinar - Climate Change Risk in Insurance and Reinsurance
Webinar22 April 2020Pressure on organisations to address climate change risks is intensifying. But what does this really mean for insurers? In this session Adhiraj Maitra and Gareth Sutcliffe will look at the why, the what and the how of this risk through a number of different lenses including regulatory, principle and resilience.
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CIGI Webinar - An Update for Property and Casualty Reinsurance Renewals 2020
Webinar27 April 2020Update on renewal pricing outcomes for Property and Casualty markets at the latest 1/1 reinsurance renewals.
The focus will be on capacity availability and price drivers. These issues include but are not limited to the cat bond market, wider trends in claims outcomes, trends in Casualty RI space that affect pricing such as social inflation, yield curve and the reserving cycle.
Finally, a note on how this may affect actuarial pricing, reserving and capital.
Learning objectives: Business knowledge of reinsurance renewal outcomes and the main drivers
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CIGI Webinar - Current Issues in Personal Injury Modelling
Webinar28 April 2020The Ogden Discount Rate shock of 2017 brought about a period of profound uncertainty to General Insurance market. GI Actuaries' first task was to estimate the impact of the Ogden shocks, particularly to reserving and reinsurance pricing. Their second was to navigate a period of framework uncertainty, maintaining an agility in actuarial modelling as the Civil Liability Bill took shape.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (29 April 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA29 April 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (29 April 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ29 April 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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CIGI Webinar - Improving Customer Outcomes through Pricing
Webinar30 April 2020The FCA’s interim report into general insurance pricing practices has brought into focus a number of market wide issues including:
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CANCELLED The Global Actuarial Profession
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ30 April 2020We are sorry that this event has been cancelled.The IFoA's policy regarding COVID-19 is designed to safeguard the well-being of members and employees. As stated within the policy, the IFoA is reviewing its events programme on a case-by-case basis.
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CIGI Webinar - IFRS 17 Working Party Deep Dive
Webinar1 May 2020Working party have been producing a number of deep dive papers, these include topics such as risk adjustment, impact of disclosures on how uncertainty is perceived, deferring acquisition costs over renewals, PAA eligibility and more.
We will select where to focus the session based on market focus closer to the time. The plan is to do a detailed session with practical examples and considerations rather than a high level educational session. Very happy to discuss further.
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SIAS Event: Cyber Insurance
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ4 May 2020The talk will cover:
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• What is causing the shift in threat landscape
• Who is attacking, why, and how we can stop them
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• Threats to evaluating insurable losses and responding to claims
• How cyber insurance policies have evolved, and need to continue to do so
• Can and should you recover ransoms under cyber insurance?
• What is the future for cyber risk? -
KSS event: Technology: A red-eyed Terminator or an actuary’s best friend?
Hymans Robertson, Exchange Place 1, 1 Semple Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8BL4 May 2020Despite long-running concerns that innovation could lead to widespread redundancy, technology has enabled greater productivity, created higher-value jobs and spurred us on to new heights. With artificial intelligence increasingly automating work undertaken by professionals, I look at the prospects for the actuarial profession in the era of unprecedented technological innovation.
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Finance and Investment Conference 2020
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE05-05 May 2020
Due to COVID-19, we are running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 5 May.The environmental, social and governance (ESG) space is growing rapidly and increasingly moving centre stage. In many cases, it is now an essential part of policy and central to the way stakeholders make decisions for the long term to ensure retention of clients, manage risk better, and ensure more economically efficient and sustainable investment returns.
ESG factors cover a wide range of areas reflecting how vital consideration of these factors are part of wider systemic risks.
The IFoA’s policy regarding Coronavirus is designed to safeguard the well being of those who attend IFoA events. Find out more.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (19 May 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA19 May 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (19 May 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ19 May 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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CILA 2020
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE20 May 2020CILA is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in, or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe. The programme this year features a timely mix of hot topics including sessions on: -
Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020
The Grand Brighton, 97-99 Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FW02-03 June 2020The Protection, Health and Care Conference is an annual conference aimed at all insurance professionals with a passion for harnessing insurance risk in their organisations. -
SIAS Event: Why personal impact matters for career progression & organisational performance & what affects it
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 June 2020How we relate to others at work, whether they are colleagues, clients, prospective clients or other business contacts is key to individual career progression and business performance. People buy people , so considering what we are known for and how to be positively memorable are vital. This session looks at the importance of professional relationships, the psychology of personal image and impact and the three personal impact 'tools' which affect what people say about us when we're not in the room.
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Mortality and Longevity 2020
1 Birdcage Walk, Westminster, London SW1H 9JJ08-08 June 2020This highly regarded seminar will provide topical and practical updates and discussion on the latest thinking and innovations in mortality and longevity. The program is designed for life, pensions and health and care actuaries, academics, researchers, underwriters and related practitioners eager to learn about the latest developments in mortality and longevity. The sessions are designed to be very accessible to a broad range of exp -
Professional Skills Training - London (10 June 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ10 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (17 June 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA17 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (18 June 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ18 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Pensions Conference 2020
Renaissance Manchester City Centre Hotel, Blackfriars Street, Manchester,M3 2EQ18-19 June 2020Join us as this year’s conference that will focus on topics including funding and savings, pension law current issues, ESG, the end game and transferring risk, investment issues, data visualisation and data science. -
IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur
CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia24-25 June 2020This event has been postponed. A new date will be announced.
The IFoA's policy regarding COVID-19 is designed to safeguard the well-being of members and employees. As stated within the policy, the IFoA is reviewing its events programme on a case-by-case basis.
To this end the IFoA and their strategic partner, the AIR, have taken the decision to postpone this year's Asia Conference. A new date will be announced pending further reviews over the following months.
Due to the COVID-19, we will be running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 22 April. 
Due to COVID-19, we are running this programme via a series of webinars commencing 5 May.