In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
For any library enquiries please contact:
We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
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Events calendar
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CAA Global Event, South Africa
Sandton Convention Centre, 161 Maude St, Sandown, Sandton, 2196, South Africa22 October 2019
CAA Global warmly invites you to join us for a networking reception at the ASSA lounge, with the opportunity to meet Ben Kemp, Director, CAA Global, Mike Mcdougall, CEO of ASSA, and Marjorie Ngwenya, Past President of the IFoA.
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KSS Event – GAD: the 100 year life (Edinburgh)
KPMG Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG22 October 2019The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.
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KSS Event – Equity Release Mortgages: The Irish Experience
Room CM S.01 (Second floor, Colin Maclaurin Building, building 22 on the campus map.) Campus maps can be found at https://www.hw.ac.uk/uk/edinburgh/map.htm23 October 2019This is a co-branded KSS/Heriot-Watt University event. Equity release mortgages (ERMs), also called lifetime mortgages, have played an increasing role in generating income for retired home-owners. As new liquidity rules have reduced the supply of bank lending, so insurers have stepped in, encouraged by generous regulatory treatment for annuity writers.
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KSS event – GAD: the 100 year life (Glasgow)
Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ24 October 2019The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.
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NOCA event - The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest
N/A25 October 2019Presenter Simon Louw
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Sessional Meeting - Autonomous Vehicles and impacts on the wider insurance industry
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ28 October 2019The Sessional Meeting is now fully booked.
Please click here to register on the waiting list.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October. The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters.
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ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ30 October 2019
ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.
This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.
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Joint IFoA/SAS Cyber Risk Presentation and Roundtable Discussion, Singapore
Peach Garden, OCBC Centre, Level 33 (access via West Lobby), 65 Chulia Street, Singapore 04951331 October 2019Organised by IFoA GI Asia International Working Group and SAS Emerging Risk Working Group, this session titled "Addressing Cyber Risks Portfolio Accumulation and Methodologies to Qualify and Quantify Losses" is aimed at raising cyber awareness within the actuarial community, encouraging discussion and collaboration to address new challenges from this emerging frontier.
Speakers: Peter Hacker, International Cyber Security Expert and Thought Leader
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Hot Topics in Health and Care: Networking and Drinks
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR4 November 2019
This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University. -
SIAS Event: Introduction to the Mortality Research Steering Committee (MRSC)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ5 November 2019The MRSC is responsible for guiding the profession’s research in the areas of longevity, mortality and morbidity such that it is recognised as a thought leader in this area. It has recently been reviewing what the priorities and have identified 6 areas that we believe are the most important areas of research that should be the current focus and these are:
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IAA and IFoA event: Career opportunities in Banking: Retail and Group Risk
Webinar6 November 2019On behalf of the International Actuarial Association’s (IAA) Banking Working Group, the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s (ASSA) Banking Committee and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) Banking Member Interest Group, you are invited to participate in the upcoming webinar entitled Career opportunities in Banking: Retail and Group Risk.
The actuarial profession has much to offer the world of banking. In this second webinar on opportunities for actuaries in banking, we have three actuaries sharing their experiences:
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IFoA CPD Co-ordinators' Briefing
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ7 November 2019The theme of this year’s annual briefing is: Lifelong Learning – providing continuous development for our members.
This event is primarily for volunteer CPD Co-ordinators, who attend to represent their organisation. CPD Co-ordinators play a key role in effective engagement between organisations who employ our members and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA).
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The challenges for AI in Autonomous driving – Professor Andrew Blake
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 11 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ11 November 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board and supporting the IFoA’s focus on data science.The IFoA’s Scottish Board have arranged for UK pioneer in Computer Vision and Machine Intelligence, Professor Andrew Blake to speak to delegates on the subject of AI in Autonomous driving. This lecture will focus on safety-critical operation and the computation of risk.
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Autumn Pension Seminar
Grand Connaught Rooms, 61-65 Great Queen St, Holborn, London WC2B 5DA13 November 2019Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.
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KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?
Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ14 November 2019The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:
- population statistics
- life expectancy
- changes in age structure
- birth and death rates, including causes of death statistics.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (14 November 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA14 November 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional Research Event: Practical guidance to climate change for insurance practitioners
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ18 November 2019Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world. Scientific research points out that it is predominately driven by human activity. It will be a major source of risk and uncertainty for insurers over the coming years. -
NED Event: Building Appropriate Trust and Maintaining Integrity as a Non-Executive Director
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ19 November 2019
Designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This 2 hour workshop is aimed at those members holding Non-Executive Director roles and those aspiring to do so in future.
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Life Conference 2019
The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 120-22 November 2019
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals. -
Professional Skills Training - London (20 November 2019)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7Q20 November 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event - Proxy Modelling using Machine Learning: LSMC case study
N/A29 November 2019Presenter Gaurang Mehta
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ARC Workshop: Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in English Mortality
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 December 2019
Purpose
The workshop will give participants detailed insights into how a large and detailed dataset can be used to assess levels of mortality inequality in England, using a number of novel statistical methods. We will also address the question: are regional variations in mortality real or imaginary? -
Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Dr Kay Swinburne
Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL2 December 2019 -
Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming
Webinar2 December 2019 -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (3 December 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA3 December 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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SIAS Event: Discount Rates are Flawed
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ3 December 2019This talk will be given by Jon Spain who, as far back as 1983, has been working independently, trying to bring “long-term” back to UK actuarial thinking. His current focus is on discount rates (see discrate.com).
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A Holistic Study into Cash flow Driven Investment
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK4 December 2019Given that Cashflow Driven Investment strategy has attracted growing interests from pension funds and insurers at the backdrop of current market conditions and clients’ circumstances, the objective of this event is to gather thought leaders from asset managers, banks and insurers to offer attendees their perspectives and insights on main aspects of consideration when adopting this strategy. -
Professional Skills Training - London (10 December 2019)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ10 December 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event - The stochastic full balance sheet model
N/A13 December 2019Presenter Bill Curry
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SIAS Event: My Journey to Data Science, Big Data and AI
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ7 January 2020Patrick Lee is an actuary who has made the transition to working in software architecture and artificial intelligence (AI). He holds Microsoft Professional qualifications in Data Science, Big Data and AI and is currently working towards a DevOps (the automation of software testing and deployment) qualification. He is a member of the IFoA Council and is also President of the Wessex Actuarial Society. He is also a member of the IFoA and the RSS's joint Data Science Focus Group and will talk on the ethical use of AI.
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Behavioural Finance Research Launch- 14 January 2020
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR14 January 2020We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday 14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.
This event is now full. Please register for the waiting list.
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IFoA Volunteer Recognition Reception
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK15 January 2020As a thank you to all our Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) volunteers, you are invited to join us at Staple Inn Hall, for an evening of drinks, canapes and networking, in London.
IFoA President, John Taylor, will be attending and will make a speech
If you support the IFoA as a volunteer (member or non-member), or in any other role, and you are going to be in London on 15 January, please book your place and join us at this reception.
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 January 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ16 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (23 January 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA23 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals: The role of actuaries
N/A31 January 2020Presenters: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Faye Alessandrello, Policy Manager, IFoA
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Professional Skills Training - London (11 February 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ11 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 February 2020This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA25 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - Model Risk
N/A28 February 2020Presenter: Mark Pibworth
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NoCA event - Intergenerational Fairness: Thinking long-term
N/A27 March 2020Presented By: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Catherine Burtle, Senior Policy Analyst, IFoA
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IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur
CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia24-25 June 2020The sixth annual Asia Conference once again offers a prestigious line-up of home and international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia. This year's conference in Kuala Lumpur will be hosted by Tan Suee Chieh, IFoA’s first Asian President. He will also make his Presidential address at this conference and will expand on the important elements of IFoA’s new strategy. Additionally, this landmark conference will showcase how the IFoA is reinventing itself to support its members to succeed and thrive in a digital age, within traditional businesses and beyond, as a global organisation.
No tot be missed by international industry players, opinion formers, academic and industry leaders, actuaries and non-actuaries.
This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.