In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
-
Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
30 April 2020
Contact Details
For any library enquiries please contact:
We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
Actuarial Innovation in the COVID-19 era
This event is online.26 April 2021 - 7 May 2021
Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a hackathon, that showcase the range of ways in which the actuarial profession has added value, in the public interest, to the understanding and management of the current and future pandemics through insight and learning. -
This event is also repeated on Tuesday 27 April, 09.00-10.30. Please click here to register your place if Tuesday is your preferred choice.
Actuaries have a lot to offer biodiversity management over the next decade as the world develops more depth to its response to this global challenge. This sessional offers an opportunity to learn about this emergent risk, to contribute to our thinking as a profession and help us develop the next steps forward.
-
Europe Town Hall
28 April 2021
IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual Europe Town Hall, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Alan Rae, Jennifer Hartley, Maribel Vasquez Flores and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.
-
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work -
Finance & Investment Virtual Conference 2021
Available to watch globally in May.10-12 May 2021
This year's Finance and Investment Virtual Conference takes on the timely theme of ‘resilience’, something we have all learnt a lot more about in the last year! Our diverse range of talks will explore the theme of resilience in a variety of ways including in building robust investment portfolios, in the incorporation of ESG factors, in govern -
Wearables in insurance: a win-win opportunity
14 May 2021
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity. -
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list. -
General Insurance Spring Conference 2021 webinar series
Online conference19-25 May 2021
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally. -
CILA 2021
Available to watch globally in May.19-21 May 2021
We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards. -
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.
The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
-
Pensions Conference 2021
Online webinar series16-22 June 2021
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion. -
Annual General Meeting 2021
24 June 2021Given our commitment to the safety of our members and employees, and as the easing of restrictions in respect of COVID-19 cannot be guaranteed at this point in time, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year.
The Business of the AGM
-
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a 
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity.
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list.
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally.
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.