In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
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Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 February 2020
This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.Event paper access code - C8F6256C
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA25 February 2020This event is now fully booked. To join the waiting list please click here.
A Trusted Profession
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Webinar: Joining the Dots. How complete is your picture?
Worldwide26 February 2020In this webinar, members of the PRA’s Actuarial Function and other relevant technical specialisms will draw upon their experiences to lead a discussion on how those carrying out the actuarial and other functions can best engage with each other to ensure that a complete picture is presented to the Board. -
NoCA event - Model Risk
N/A28 February 2020Presenter: Mark Pibworth
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SIAS Event: Actuaries in Non Traditional Fields Talk 1/3
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 March 2020"Advising funeral trusts - avoiding the pitfalls and not getting burnt"
In response to our members feedback, for our 2020 programme we are planning 3 talks that explore the work the actuaries do in non traditional actuarial fields. The 1st talk in the trilogy will be presented by Graeme Muir and Nigel Sloan who will cover some of the issues you might need to think about if asked to advise a funeral trust or a similar body - neither pensions nor life assurance.
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Finance and Investment Webinar: Introduction to ESG
Webinar5 March 2020
Investors globally are embracing ESG but what does this involve and can ESG be measured? Louise Dudley, Global Equity Portfolio Manager at Hermes Investment Management will outline the taxonomy often used when talking about ESG (exclusion, screening, engagement, sustainable, impact, responsible investing), talk about the importance of stewardship and engagement, and showcase evidence to the question as to whether ESG adds va -
KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?
New Register House, 3 West Register Street, Edinburgh5 March 2020The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:
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Actuarial valuations to monitor defined benefit pension funding
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ9 March 2020This paper addresses one of the fundamentals of actuarial practice: assessing the solvency of a defined benefit pension scheme. It is timely as The Pensions Regulator is reviewing its code of practice on funding, providing an opportunity for the actuarial profession to contribute to an important matter of public interest.Sessional paper access code: 56DF2B25
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KSS event: Evolutionary finance – techniques for solving financial problems (repeat session)
Royal London, 1 Thistle Street10 March 2020Speaker: Dr Marc Roper
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Highlights of the Life Conference 2019 - London
America Square Conference Centre, 17, One Crosswall, America Square, London EC3N 2LB11 March 2020This event will cover the highlights from last year's Life Conference 2019 held in Dublin. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best-reviewed sessions from the conference. Book now to ensure your place. -
Insurance Investment Roundtable (IFoA & PRA) - Register your interest
Aviva, St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London, EC3P 3DQ11 March 2020The IFoA hosts regular roundtable meetings with the PRA on best practice in insurance investment and the application of the Prudent Person Principle, which governs insurance investment under Solvency II.
These roundtables are organised by the IFoA’s Finance and Investment Practice Board, supporting its members with access to relevant information on industry and regulatory developments. They have been attended by a diverse group of IFoA members, including insurance CIOs and Heads of ALM, actuarial and investment consultants, insurance asset managers, and investment bankers.
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Insurance Investment – Prudent Person Principle & CP22/19
Aviva, St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London, EC3P 3DQ11 March 2020At this event, Alan Sheppard (Head of Insurance Policy, Bank of England) will provide insight into the PRA’s oversight of insurance investment activity and the recent Consultation Paper on the Prudent Person Principle.
The Finance & Investment Practice Board of the IFoA has hosted regular roundtable meetings with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) covering best practice in insurance investment and the application of the Prudent Person Principle, which governs insurance investment under Solvency II.
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Data science - How actuaries can optimize usage of data science techniques within their sectors
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London. WC1V 6DR12 March 2020The world of Data Science continues to exponentially grow with unknown limits and where it can reach. However, without data we will all still face these challenges in our day to day life. -
Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture - Mortality Myths
George Porter Lecture Theatre B University of Leicester University Road Leicester LE1 7RH18 March 2020Jointly hosted by the Worshipful Company of Actuaries (WCA) and the Leicester Actuarial Science Society (LASS).
Stuart McDonald, Head of Demographics at Lloyds Banking Group, will give us a mortality update, dispelling a few myths along the way!
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Webinar: Social Impact Investment, 19 March
Worldwide19 March 2020The IFoA and its Social Impact Investment Working Party are delivering a webinar to introduce social impact investing and explore the role of actuaries in this growing field. The presenters will use their international experience of this significant and growing market to:
- clarify often confusing terminology
- describe key trends, and
- explore the ways in which actuaries can contribute in this field.
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Board agenda: Why Responsible Investing, ESG, and Climate Change matters to Pension Funds, Companies
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London. WC1V 6DR, UK19 March 2020Recent years have seen ESG, Climate Change, and Responsible Investing thrust onto the corporate agenda in every boardroom. The same also be said for pension funds. Expectations of how companies should respond are high and NEDs on Boards are expected to adapt and adjust their guidance to companies accordingly. What does this mean for Actuaries serving as NEDs and Trustees? -
KSS event: A Cashless Society- Benefits, Risks, Issues and Developments
Deloitte, 4th Floor, Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace19 March 2020Speaker: Iain Collier, Chair of the CSWP
The talk will look to cover the following: Progression towards a Cashless Society • Developments home and overseas • Benefits, Risks and Issues • Crypto Currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies.
There will be an extended Q&A session at the end of the event.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (19 March 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA19 March 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Finance and Investment Webinar: Applying Artificial Intelligence to systematic investing
Webinar23 March 2020What are the advantages of using artificial intelligence (AI) in investing? What are the differences between traditional quant and AI? This new webinar, part of a series of four webinars leading to the annual Finance & Investment Conference 2020, discusses challenges and the future of AI in the investment sector. -
Spring Lecture 2020, Edinburgh - Vicky Pryce
Assembly Rooms, 54 George St, Edinburgh EH2 2LR25 March 2020 -
Spring Lecture 2020: Live Streaming at Staple Inn - Vicky Pryce
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1 V 7QJ25 March 2020This event will be live streamed from Edinburgh.
The Brexit Budget: What next for the UK economy? Please join us for our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). -
Spring Lecture 2020: Live Streaming
Webinar25 March 2020What next in Economic Policy? Please join us on 25 March 2020 for the live stream of our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). -
Professional Skills Training - London (26 March 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ26 March 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - Intergenerational Fairness: Thinking long-term
N/A27 March 2020Presented By: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Catherine Burtle, Senior Policy Analyst, IFoA
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Building Appropriate Trust and Maintaining Integrity as a Non-Executive Director - Edinburgh
Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA1 April 2020
Designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This 2 hour workshop is aimed at those members holding Non-Executive Director roles and those aspiring to do so in future.
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SIAS Event: CMI Update
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ1 April 2020Following the release of the updated CMI Mortality Projection Model, CMI_2019, the CMI Mortality Projections Committee will lead a discussion on future mortality improvements.
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Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2020
Hilton London Tower Bridge, 5 More London Riverside, Tooley St, London SE1 2BY22 April 2020CIGI is a well-established one-day seminar designed to increase awareness and encourage discussion on a variety of topical issues across the general insurance industry. There will be an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers to provide a variety of perspectives and challenge covering technical and professional areas.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (29 April 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA29 April 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (29 April 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ29 April 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Finance and Investment Conference 2020
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE05-05 May 2020Join us at this year’s Finance and Investment Conference in London that will focus on ESG. The environmental, social and governance (ESG) space is growing rapidly and increasingly moving centre stage. In many cases, it is now an essential part of policy and central to the way stakeholders make decisions for the long term to ensure retention of clients, manage risk better, and ensure more economically efficient and sustainable investment returns.
ESG factors cover a wide range of areas reflecting how vital consideration of these factors are part of wider systemic risks.
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Professional Skills Training - London (19 May 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ19 May 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (19 May 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA19 May 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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CILA 2020
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Pl, London NW1 4LE20 May 2020CILA is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in, or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe. The programme this year features a timely mix of hot topics including sessions on: -
Protection, Health and Care Conference 2020
The Grand Brighton, 97-99 Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FW02-03 June 2020The Protection, Health and Care Conference is an annual conference aimed at all insurance professionals with a passion for harnessing insurance risk in their organisations. -
Mortality and Longevity 2020
1 Birdcage Walk, Westminster, London SW1H 9JJ08-08 June 2020This highly regarded seminar will provide topical and practical updates and discussion on the latest thinking and innovations in mortality and longevity. The program is designed for life, pensions and health and care actuaries, academics, researchers, underwriters and related practitioners eager to learn about the latest developments in mortality and longevity. The sessions are designed to be very accessible to a broad range of exp -
Professional Skills Training - London (10 June 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ10 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (17 June 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA17 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (18 June 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ18 June 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Pensions Conference 2020
Renaissance Manchester City Centre Hotel, Blackfriars Street, Manchester,M3 2EQ18-19 June 2020Join us as this year’s conference that will focus on topics including funding and savings, pension law current issues, ESG, the end game and transferring risk, investment issues, data visualisation and data science. -
IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur
CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia24-25 June 2020Join us at the IFoA Asia Conference 2020 at CCEC Nexus, Kuala Lumpur where intellectual thought leaders, senior industry players, opinion formers, academics, actuaries and non-actuaries from across Asia and beyond are expected to attend. This year's landmark conference promises to an exciting one as our first Asian President-elect, Tan Suee Chieh will, as newly appointed president of the IFoA, use his presidential address to highlight the two key pillars of the IFoA’s emerging strategy:- the reinvention of the profession in terms of its skillsets and mind-sets so that we can thrive in an increasing range of domains in a digital age;
- the widening application of actuarial science in achieving social impact and sustainability goals.
We are also delighted to announce that the Honourable Mr. Lim Guan Eng, Minister of Finance, Malaysia, will be the guest of honour at this year's conference.
Early registration discount is now open until 1 March. 10% group discounts are offered to a minimum of six IFoA booking in a single transaction. This also applies to ASM members. Limited spaces are available, so please sign-up early to avoid disappointment.
This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.