In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
For any library enquiries please contact:
We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
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IFRS17 Workshop, 21 February
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ21 February 2019
The Life Board and Life Lifelong Learning Sub-committee are running this half-day workshop on IFRS 17.They will provide a detailed understanding of the key concepts of the standard, as well as discuss how implementation will impact people, process and systems. They will also share views on how the new standard will change the way insurers are viewed in the market, and share perspectives from within and outside of the profession.
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NoCA UK Teleconference–A Risk Management perspective on Artificial Intelligence and FinTech
N/A22 February 2019This teleconference will be presented by Isaac Alfon
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Sessional Event: Antibiotic Resistance Working Party
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 9 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ25 February 2019The IFoA Antibiotic Resistance Working Party has studied the rise of Antibiotic resistance (‘ABR’) and how it has become an increasing concern to the medical professions, health services and governments of the world’s major economies. -
Data Science: Opportunities for Actuaries
The IFoA's first virtual event26 February 2019 - 28 February 2019The IFoA are launching their first virtual conference on the topic of Data Science, that is free to attend. This is an exciting and forward thinking move to reach members all over the world and to share knowledge and discuss developments and techniques within data science. -
Professional Skills Training - London (26 February 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ26 February 2019 -
Leicester Actuarial Science Society presents the 5th Annual Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture
The University of Leicester, Ken Edwards Lecture Theatre 3 (see map and directions)27 February 2019IFoA President-Elect, John Taylor will discuss his work on 'robo advice' and the implications of technology for the future of the profession, but also his thoughts about the immediate priorities for the actuarial profession based on his first year with the Presidential Team.
The Worshipful Company of Actuaries will also be explaining their work and presenting two prizes: one each to the best performing 2nd year and 3rd year BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science student at the University during the session.
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ARC: ERM Results Launch Event
Staple inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ28 February 2019
This event is now full. We do operate a waiting system for this event should there become availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
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Actuaries Rock event – What happened at GIRO?
Gibraltar Financial Services Commission P O Box 940 Suite 3, Ground Floor Atlantic Suites Europort Avenue GX11 - 1AA Gibraltar28 February 2019This event is run by Actuaries Rock, the regional society for actuaries in Gibraltar. To register please email: kmorgan@gfsc.gi
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SIAS Event: Challenges and Opportunities for Actuaries Working in Data Science
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ4 March 2019This talk will present examples of the use of data science in the General Insurance and Health and Care practice areas. It will highlight some of the opportunities and challenges for actuaries in using the latest data science techniques in these fields.
- Lisa Balboa will present on using predictive analytics to improve health care forecasting.
- Alexander Hanks will present a practical example of training a neural network to fit curves to general insurance claims data.
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Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - London
Ect Venues, 200 Aldersgate, St. Pauls, London EC1A 4HD5 March 2019This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018. Book now to ensure your place. -
Life and F&I One Day Workshop
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ11 March 2019This cross-practice event for Life actuaries and those in finance and investments roles offers high-quality CPD with a series of thought-provoking presentations covering economics and financial markets, responsible investment, CMA review outcome, FCA requirements, asset analytics, and much more. -
Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at the Lloyds Building - Professor Sir John Curtice
The Old Library, Lloyds, One Lime Street, London, EC3M 7HA13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board.Following the popularity of this year’s Spring Lecture, delivered by Professor Sir John Curtice, an additional venue has been sourced for those wishing to attend a London Livestream event.
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Spring Lecture 2019, Edinburgh - Sir John Curtice
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board. Edinburgh is now full. However, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world.
We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
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Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at Staple Inn - Professor Sir John Curtice
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board. Following the popularity of this year’s Spring Lecture, delivered by Professor Sir John Curtice, an additional venue has been sourced for Members to attend a London Livestream event at the Lloyd's building. Please register here. Alternatively, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. -
Sessional Meeting: Investment risk for long term investors - risk measurement approaches
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ18 March 2019The term ‘investment risk’ is often used loosely, and frequently confused with the notion of short term price volatility, particularly for equity instruments. For the long term investor, however, what is most apposite is the ability to meet future real cash flows as they become due. -
KSS event – Index Based Longevity Hedging
Royal London St Andrew House, 1 Thistle St, Edinburgh EH2 1DG18 March 2019This KSS talk on Index Based Longevity Hedging - The Dutch Experience and implications for the UK market will cover the structure of deals to date in the Dutch market; the challenges in determining the Solvency 2 capital treatment for such deals and the work done by the Longevity Risk Transfer Working Party of the Dutch Insurance Association; a proposal for a method for quantification of Basis Risk based on a recent paper “Basis Risk in Index Based Longevity Hedges: A Guide for Longevity Hedgers” by Cairns & El Boukfaoui, and implications for the future, both in terms
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Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - Edinburgh
Apex Grassmarket Hotel, 31-35 Grassmarket, Edinburgh EH1 2HS19 March 2019This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018. Book now to ensure your place. -
Professional Skills Training - London (19 March 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ19 March 2019 -
KSS event - FinTech and The Actuarial Profession
Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ20 March 2019This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.
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IFoA’s Diversity Advisory Group: The Power of Deep Listening
Aviva, The Agora, Level 2B, St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ21 March 20198th March is International Women’s Day. The IFoA’s Diversity Advisory Group will be facilitating a session later in March as part of this celebration. Subject to availability. All members are welcomed. Please contact Susan Hunter Jones (susan.hunterjones@aviva.com) to register for the session.
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Actuaries Rock event – What does the Government Actuary do?
Gibraltar Financial Services Commission P O Box 940 Suite 3, Ground Floor Atlantic Suites Europort Avenue GX11 - 1AA Gibraltar21 March 2019This event is run by Actuaries Rock, the regional society for actuaries in Gibraltar. To register please email kmorgan@gfsc.gi
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (26 March 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA26 March 2019
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event – To Omega and beyond: the evolution of longevity
N/A29 March 2019Presented by Stuart McDonald
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Sessional Meeting: Improving understanding and transparency around the assessment of the inflations
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ15 April 2019This event is now fully booked. Please register here to be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 April 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ16 April 2019Please register here to join the wait list
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE25-26 April 2019This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas. -
NOCA event – Technological Developments and the Future of Insurance
N/A25 April 2019Presented by Yossi Sirote
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (30 April 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA30 April 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu
Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu09-10 May 2019Offering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts. -
CILA 2019
30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB14 May 2019CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe. -
KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update
Willis Towers Watson 2 Lochrin Square, 96 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9QA15 May 2019This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond. The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. To book please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (15 May 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA15 May 2019
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KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update
Willis Towers Watson 2 West Regent Street Glasgow G2 1RW16 May 2019This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond. The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. To book a place please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 May 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ16 May 2019 -
Risk and Investment one day Conference 2019
Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX20-21 May 2019This year's Risk and Investment Conference will be taking place at Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, London.To book your place click here.
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Sessional Research Event - Saving for Retirement: Rules of Thumb
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ20 May 2019How much does the average person need to save over a full working life to provide a decent retirement income? We call this the Lifetime Pension Contribution (LPC) and have attempted to quantify it. -
NoCA event – Optimising Copula Structures for Risk Management
N/A24 May 2019Presented by Richard Schneider
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Professional Skills Training - London (12 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ12 June 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ18 June 2019Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals. In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood. -
Pensions Conference 2019
Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD18-19 June 2019This year's Pensions Conference will be taking place at the Bristol Marriott City Centre. -
Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019
Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ19 June 2019CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics. The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (20 June 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA20 June 2019 -
Sessional: Why the Pensions Dashboard is more than a data collection exercise
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 June 2019The pensions dashboard has been talked about across the industry for a long time and now nears implementation with DWP’s consultation ending in January 2019. -
Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ25 June 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.