In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
For any library enquiries please contact:
We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
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Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.
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KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?
Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ14 November 2019The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (14 November 19)
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NED Event: Building Appropriate Trust and Maintaining Integrity as a Non-Executive Director
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Designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This 2 hour workshop is aimed at those members holding Non-Executive Director roles and those aspiring to do so in future.
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Life Conference 2019
The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 120-22 November 2019
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals. -
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KSS event – Evolutionary finance – techniques for solving financial problems
Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow26 November 2019Speaker: Dr Marc Roper, Reader in the Computer and Information Sciences department at the University of Strathclyde
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NOCA event - Proxy Modelling using Machine Learning: LSMC case study
N/A29 November 2019Presenter Gaurang Mehta
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KSS event: Climate change, ESG and what it means for Insurers
PwC Edinburgh, Atria 1, 144 Morrison St, Edinburgh2 December 2019Speaker: Pallavi Konwar
Pallavi has a background in banking and asset management as well as within government. She started her career at Wall Street in New York, where she worked for Citigroup on mortgage securitisations and collateral analysis. Before joining PwC, she worked within the Infrastructure UK team at HM Treasury. where she was responsible for contributing to the National Infrastructure Plan and reporting on the performance and delivery of nationally significant infrastructure projects.
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ARC Workshop: Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in English Mortality
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 December 2019
Purpose
The workshop will give participants detailed insights into how a large and detailed dataset can be used to assess levels of mortality inequality in England, using a number of novel statistical methods. We will also address the question: are regional variations in mortality real or imaginary? -
Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Dr Kay Swinburne
Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL2 December 2019We are delighted to announce that Dr Kay Swinburne will deliver this year’s lecture, "It’s not all about the numbers – regulatory challenges for UK financial services post-Brexit" -
Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming
Webinar2 December 2019We are delighted to announce that Dr Kay Swinburne will deliver this year’s lecture. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (3 December 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA3 December 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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SIAS Event: Discount Rates are Flawed
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ3 December 2019This talk will be given by Jon Spain who, as far back as 1983, has been working independently, trying to bring “long-term” back to UK actuarial thinking. His current focus is on discount rates (see discrate.com).
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A Holistic Study into Cash flow Driven Investment
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK4 December 2019Given that Cashflow Driven Investment strategy has attracted growing interests from pension funds and insurers at the backdrop of current market conditions and clients’ circumstances, the objective of this event is to gather thought leaders from asset managers, banks and insurers to offer attendees their perspectives and insights on main aspects of consideration when adopting this strategy. -
Your Actuarial Career: Managing Career Breaks
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ5 December 2019Maternity or paternity leave, sabbaticals to study or travel, managing care responsibilities or escaping unemployment – Join Chika Aghadiuno and a panel of IFoA guests to explore the issues around career breaks from the perspective of an employee and an employer. Supported by Ignata Actuarial & Investments -
Sessional Meeting - Silent Cyber Assessment Framework
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ9 December 2019The (re)insurance industry is faced with a growing risk related to the development of information technology (IT). This growth is creating an increasingly digitally interconnected world with more and more dependence being placed on IT systems to manage processes. -
Professional Skills Training - London (10 December 2019)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ10 December 2019This event will be of interest to students and recently qualified actuaries.
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NOCA event - The stochastic full balance sheet model
N/A13 December 2019Presenter Bill Curry
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ARC Sessional Research Event: Drivers of Mortality - Risk Factors and Inequality
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ6 January 2020
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SIAS Event: My Journey to Data Science, Big Data and AI
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ7 January 2020Patrick Lee is an actuary who has made the transition to working in software architecture and artificial intelligence (AI). He holds Microsoft Professional qualifications in Data Science, Big Data and AI and is currently working towards a DevOps (the automation of software testing and deployment) qualification. He is a member of the IFoA Council and is also President of the Wessex Actuarial Society. He is also a member of the IFoA and the RSS's joint Data Science Focus Group and will talk on the ethical use of AI.
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NED Event: Actuaries as iNEDs of Investment Fund Boards / Investment Governance Committees and Value
Staple Inn Hall High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ9 January 2020The event will be chaired by Brandon Horwitz, an actuary who is a consultant who has held various investment governance roles and who specialises in investment governance as well as being an iNED.
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NoCA event - The Matching Adjustment Calculation
N/A10 January 2020This presentation covers the detail for how the matching adjustment is calculated. A small simple example spreadsheet is provided and discussed in detail.
For actuaries wanting to get more involved with the matching adjustment, this is the opportunity to get a detailed description of the mechanics involved. This includes cashflows derisking, PRA tests as well as hypothecation.
The presentation is provided by James Sharpe who has worked on a number of matching adjustment calculations with several firms.
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IFoA Volunteer Recognition Reception
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK15 January 2020As a thank you to all our Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) volunteers, you are invited to join us at Staple Inn Hall, for an evening of drinks, canapes and networking, in London.
IFoA President, John Taylor, will be attending and will make a speech
If you support the IFoA as a volunteer (member or non-member), or in any other role, and you are going to be in London on 15 January, please book your place and join us at this reception.
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 January 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ16 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional Meeting - Operational Risk Dependencies
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh 9 Queen St Edinburgh EH2 1JQ20 January 2020The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. One of the key challenges in modelling operational risk is the modelling of dependencies between operational risks, and between operational and non-operational risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. Their paper seeks to assist in this regard, and help develop good practice in setting assumptions and modelling operational risk dependencies.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (23 January 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA23 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals: The role of actuaries
N/A31 January 2020Presenters: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Faye Alessandrello, Policy Manager, IFoA
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ARC Sessional Research Event
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ3 February 2020
This sessional will be delivered by members of the research team working on the ARC “Big Health & Actuarial Data’ research programme, led by Professor Elena Kulinskaya (University of East Anglia).
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Professional Skills Training - London (11 February 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ11 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 February 2020This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA25 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - Model Risk
N/A28 February 2020Presenter: Mark Pibworth
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NoCA event - Intergenerational Fairness: Thinking long-term
N/A27 March 2020Presented By: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Catherine Burtle, Senior Policy Analyst, IFoA
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IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur
CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia24-25 June 2020The sixth annual Asia Conference once again offers a prestigious line-up of home and international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia. This year's conference in Kuala Lumpur will be hosted by Tan Suee Chieh, IFoA’s first Asian President. He will also make his Presidential address at this conference and will expand on the important elements of IFoA’s new strategy. Additionally, this landmark conference will showcase how the IFoA is reinventing itself to support its members to succeed and thrive in a digital age, within traditional businesses and beyond, as a global organisation.
No tot be missed by international industry players, opinion formers, academic and industry leaders, actuaries and non-actuaries.
A 2-hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s 
