This paper updates Living with Mortality written more than a decade ago. It describes how the longevity risk transfer market has developed over the intervening period, and, in particular, how insurance-based solutions – buy-outs, buy-ins and longevity insurance – triumphed over the capital markets solutions that were expected to dominate at the time.
Since writing the last paper in 2011, some capital markets solutions – longevity-spread bonds, longevity swaps, q-forwards, and tail-risk protection – have come to market, but the volume of business has been disappointingly low. Our explanation for this centres on how the differences between the index-based solutions of the capital markets and the customized solutions of insurance companies have operational implications – principally in respect of basis risk, credit risk, regulatory capital, collateral, and liquidity – that have still to be fully resolved. We discuss the importance of stochastic mortality models for forecasting future longevity and examine some applications of these models in terms of measuring and hedging longevity risk, determining the longevity risk premium, pricing a buy-out, and estimating regulatory capital relief. The longevity risk transfer market is now beginning to recognize that there is insufficient capacity in the insurance and reinsurance industries to deal fully with demand and new solutions for attracting capital markets investors are now being examined – such as longevity-linked securities and reinsurance sidecars.
This paper is part of the Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) Programme Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk.
Contact Events Team for more information.
0207 632 1498
Professor Andrew Cairns (Heriot Watt University)
Professor David Blake (Cass Business School)
|17.00-17.30||Registration and refreshments|
|17.35-18.20||Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market After One Decade|
|18.20-18.50||Questions from the floor|
|18.20-19.00||Chair’s comments and close|
|19.00||Drinks reception and networking|
Royal Collge of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ