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ARC Webinar Series 2021: Modelling cancer risk: regional and socioeconomic disparities

Thursday 30 September 2021 12:30 - 13:30

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Cancer incidence and mortality vary by region and socioeconomic status. Modelling the structure development and trends of cancer risk is important for insurance purposes and can impact pricing and reserving in related health insurance fields such as critical illness insurance and care provision.

In this work we investigate cancer rates over the period 2001-2018 to quantify differences among regions and deprivation groups in England, using data from the Office for National Statistics. Under a comprehensive Bayesian model, which accounts for uncertainties in the data, we provide a detailed assessment of regional and socioeconomic disparities in cancer morbidity and mortality risk. The analysis shows considerable inequalities in some of the most prevalent types of cancer, as well as all-cancer rates, with respect to socioeconomic status by region. It also reveals that the gap among deprivation groups with the highest and lowest cancer rates has widened over time for certain types of cancer. Our research has also found that delays in the average age of cancer diagnosis can result in a significant increase in cancer mortality, that also exhibits regional variation. This can be particularly relevant to diagnosis delays under the current Covid-19 pandemic.

The work discussed in this webinar is part of the Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk programme.

Please find below links to papers related to this topic:


Prof. George Streftaris

George Streftaris is Professor of Statistics at Heriot-Watt University, with expertise in Bayesian statistical modelling applied in actuarial science and epidemiology. The presented work is part of an ARC funded programme (Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk), where George is a Co-Investigator, while he has also led IFoA-funded research on critical illness insurance claims modelling. He is Principal Investigator on a research project funded by the Society of Actuaries, on predictive modelling for morbidity risk. He is also Chief Examiner for Subject CS1 (Actuarial Statistics) of the IFoA Curriculum.



Dr Ayşe Arık

Dr Ayşe Arik is currently a research fellow at Heriot-Watt University where she is a former post-doctoral researcher in an ARC funded programme (Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk). Ayse’s research interests include longevity risk securitisation and modelling of mortality and morbidity risks. She is also a registered actuary, with registration number 125, rewarded by Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Undersecretariat of Treasury in 2012.



Jamie Funnell (Chair)

Jamie Funnell is a qualified actuary in the Longevity Risk Management division at Pension Insurance Corporation with responsibility for the reinsurance of longevity risk. Jamie joined PIC in 2018, having previously worked at Prudential UK and Barnett Waddingham, and has spent his career analysing and interpreting longevity risk for pricing, capital and reserving assumptions.

Jamie currently sits as Chair of the Continuous Mortality Investigation’s Annuities Committee ensuring that the CMI continues to produce informative analyses of the annuity market for its subscribers.

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0207 632 1498

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This is a free webinar.

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