CMI says excess mortality continues as deaths associated with COVID-19 increase

CMI says excess mortality continues as deaths associated with COVID-19 increase

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 44 of 2020 (24 October to 30 October) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 November 2020.

The key points of this update are:

• The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has continued to increase in recent weeks, from under 100 in week 37, to 1,379 in week 44.
   
• As a result, all-cause mortality is now higher than levels observed in 2019.
   
• There were 6% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 44 than if death rates had been the same as for week 44 of 2019. The corresponding increase in week 43 was also 6%.
   
• There have been around 62,100 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 October 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “ONS data shows that mortality continues to be higher than in the same period in 2019, but the rise in excess deaths is much more gradual than during the first wave of the pandemic.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. “Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.
2. The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 45 on 17 November 2020.

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA\

Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.