There is no one-size-fits-all way to communicate risk

Government and health professionals should relook at how they are communicating heath-related risks, according to Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge.  Speaking at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) Spring Lecture in London last night (4 May) where he was made an Honorary Fellow of the IFoA, Sir David stressed the importance of understanding the beliefs and concerns of target audiences when communicating risk and tailoring messaging accordingly.                                                                                                                    

Sir David said at the event,

“Research has found that perceptions by the public are greatly swayed by how numbers are framed.  For example, whether surgical results are presented in terms of mortality, or survival, influences people’s feelings about surgery.”

“There is a ‘numeracy paradox’ that needs to be addressed when creating information leaflets or websites.  Currently they tend to be optimised for people with low numeracy, but research has found that people with low numeracy tend to be less engaged in making informed choices.  So it appears that the information is being targeted exactly at the audience least likely to take advantage of it.  A range of different formats should be provided for different types of people – there is no single ‘best’ way” to communicate.”

Sir David stated that a potential solution is to find a ‘common language’ between stakeholders, with a set of core principles regarding the presentation of analysis, that would enable audiences to fully understand the risks being communicated, and lessen the chance of misinterpretation.  The aim should be to enable the public to decide reasonable risks for themselves to make informed choices, rather than be persuaded towards a particular course of action, and this means developing materials in close cooperation with the intended audience.”

“Transparent and open communication, which attempts to avoid framing effects, requires that the potential harms and benefits of innovations are reported in a balanced manner.  It is also crucial that the impact on audiences of language and concepts is understood by those communicating risk and uncertainty so they are better able to tailor messages accordingly.”

~ENDS~

Editorial notes:

About Sir David Spiegelhalter

Sir David Spiegelhalter – Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, and Professor of Biostatistics, at the University of Cambridge.

David Spiegelhalter is a statistician who has pioneered the modelling of risk in medical contexts. He has brought statistical methodology into the heart of clinical performance monitoring and has worked extensively to improve general understanding of mathematical uncertainty.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial- related issues, including enterprise risk management, finance and investment, general insurance, health and care, life assurance, mortality, and pensions.