CMI anticipates gradual decline in excess weekly deaths

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 18 of 2020 (25 April to 1 May) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 12 May 2020.

The key points of this update are:

• There were 1.6 times as many deaths registered in week 18 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 18 of 2019. The ratio was 2.2 in week 17 and 2.4 in week 16.
• There may have been around 60,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 11 May 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “The latest figures released by the ONS show another decline in ‘excess’ weekly deaths.. However, it is likely that the fall in excess deaths will be more gradual over the coming weeks than the earlier rise, as seen in other countries.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.