18 August 2020
During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 32 of 2020 (1 to 7 August) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 18 August 2020.
The key points of this update are:
- There were 3% fewer deaths registered in week 32 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 32 of 2019. The equivalent figure for week 31 was 5% fewer.
- There have been around 61,400 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 7 August 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019. This is a decrease of around 3,200 from the peak at 12 June 2020.
Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “For the eighth week running, we see fewer deaths than we might expect at this time of year. However, the numbers involved are modest and the aggregate excess deaths figure remains well above 60,000.”
“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019. The cumulative number of excess deaths as at 18 August is lower than the number as at 12 June because there have been fewer deaths than expected during the past eight weeks of data; i.e. excess deaths have been negative in those weeks.
As mortality has been similar to expected, we are reducing the frequency of the mortality monitors. We intend to publish the next monitors for week 36, on 15 September 2020, and week 39, coinciding with the Q3 monitor, on 6 October 2020.
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.