CMI observes latest deaths remain below 2019 levels

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 26 of 2020 (20 to 26 June) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 7 July 2020. This update includes extra analyses about the age distribution and socio-economic profile of excess deaths.  We plan to reduce the frequency of publications now that the weekly number death registrations have fallen to within a typical range for this time of the year.

Week 26 also coincides with our regular quarterly monitor, which we’ve published alongside the shorter pandemic focussed version.  The quarterly update includes more detailed analyses and has a slightly longer term focus.

The key points of these updates are:

• There were 7% fewer deaths registered in week 26 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 26 of 2019. The decrease was 3% in week 25.
   
• There have been around 62,500 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 26 June 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019. This is a decrease from 63,500 excess deaths to 12 June 2020.
   
• The average mortality rate in the last twelve months is higher than any time since mid-2010.
   
• The number of ‘excess’ deaths has predominantly been driven by experience at older ages, with the impact on males being slightly greater.  The number of deaths registered for those aged below 45 were broadly in line with pre-pandemic expectations.
   
• People living in more deprived areas have seen a bigger increase in mortality rates as a result of the pandemic compared to those in less deprived areas.
   
• However, people living in more deprived areas generally experience heavier mortality rates. This means that as a proportion of pre-pandemic expectations, there was little variation across the socio-economic spectrum. Mortality rates nearly doubled across the board during April, at the peak of the pandemic.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said:

“For the second week running, the latest ONS data shows fewer deaths than we might expect at this time of year, but we should remain cautious. This week’s CMI mortality monitor also demonstrates how more data can help us gain a greater understanding of the risks to individual groups.”

“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019. The cumulative number of excess deaths as at 26 June is lower than the number as at 14 June because there have been fewer deaths than expected during the past two weeks of data; i.e. excess deaths have been negative in those weeks.

The next mortality monitor will be published on July 21 (for week 28). All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.