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CMI says excess mortality continues as deaths associated with COVID-19 increase

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 44 of 2020 (24 October to 30 October) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 November 2020.

The key points of this update are:

  • The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has continued to increase in recent weeks, from under 100 in week 37, to 1,379 in week 44.
     
  • As a result, all-cause mortality is now higher than levels observed in 2019.
     
  • There were 6% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 44 than if death rates had been the same as for week 44 of 2019. The corresponding increase in week 43 was also 6%.
     
  • There have been around 62,100 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 October 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “ONS data shows that mortality continues to be higher than in the same period in 2019, but the rise in excess deaths is much more gradual than during the first wave of the pandemic.”

“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.

The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 45 on 17 November 2020. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.