The working party arose from a specific concern that, by quoting '1 in 200' numbers for capital requirements under Solvency II, actuaries were, perhaps unwittingly, being party to giving false confidence about the financial strength of insurers. This issue naturally led on to broader reflections on uncertainty, looking beyond the actuarial profession and even beyond the insurance industry.
We have had a particular focus on decision making where there is uncertainty and have developed six high level Uncertainty Principles that can be used in supporting, making and critiquing decisions:
- Face up to uncertainty
- Deconstruct the problem
- Don't be fooled (un/intentional biases)
- Models can be helpful, but also dangerous
- Think about adaptability and resilience
- Bring people with you
Our recently published paper, 'Managing Uncertainty, Principles for improved decision making' explores each of these in turn along with some case studies. These are further illustrated with additional case studies and vignettes in our GIRO presentations.
- Managing Uncertainty, Principles for improved decision making
- GIRO 2018: Plenary 6
- GIRO 2017 workshop
- GIRO 2015 workshop
Melinda Strudwick, Martin White, Paul Kaye and Andrew Smith
- 9 November 2017
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