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Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving

The Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving Working Party researches the stochastic reserving methods available to general insurance reserving actuaries with the aim of agreeing a diverse selection of stochastic reserving techniques which will form the focus of the Working Party's subsequent research

The objectives of the Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving Working Party are to:

  • research the stochastic reserving methods available to general insurance reserving actuaries, and to agree upon a diverse selection of stochastic reserving techniques which will form the focus of the Working Party's subsequent efforts
  • develop user-friendly explanations of the operational mechanics of each method
  • identify the key explicit and implicit assumptions underlying each method
  • assess the extent to which the underlying assumptions in each case are an adequate reflection of the real-world insurance environment, and the implications of any of the assumptions not reflecting reality
  • identify and summarise the practical situations in which each method might be relied upon to give reasonable results, and the circumstances in which each method might potentially break down
  • determine how each method should be used in a variety of commonplace practical situations, eg where there have been known disturbances in the patterns of claim development, individual large claims, etc.
  • recommend how results might be selected from the outputs of different methods, how different methods might be preferred for different accident/underwriting years, how expert judgement might be applied throughout the process, and how methods and results might be effectively communicated to non-actuarial stakeholders
  • document the Working Party’s findings and conclusions (including any recommendations for focus on further methods by subsequent iterations of the working party).


Chair: Robert Scarth
Membership: 29
Established: 2013

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If you want more information about this research working party please contact the Communities Team.

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Events calendar

  • CILA 2022

    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

  • Spaces available

    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

    The Business of the AGM

  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Houndsditch, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
    Spaces available

    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.


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    This webinar will cover:

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    • Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities

    • This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership

    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

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    This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on  the expected future changes. Through examining  the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial  expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.