The objectives of the Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving Working Party are to:
- research the stochastic reserving methods available to general insurance reserving actuaries, and to agree upon a diverse selection of stochastic reserving techniques which will form the focus of the Working Party's subsequent efforts
- develop user-friendly explanations of the operational mechanics of each method
- identify the key explicit and implicit assumptions underlying each method
- assess the extent to which the underlying assumptions in each case are an adequate reflection of the real-world insurance environment, and the implications of any of the assumptions not reflecting reality
- identify and summarise the practical situations in which each method might be relied upon to give reasonable results, and the circumstances in which each method might potentially break down
- determine how each method should be used in a variety of commonplace practical situations, eg where there have been known disturbances in the patterns of claim development, individual large claims, etc.
- recommend how results might be selected from the outputs of different methods, how different methods might be preferred for different accident/underwriting years, how expert judgement might be applied throughout the process, and how methods and results might be effectively communicated to non-actuarial stakeholders
- document the Working Party’s findings and conclusions (including any recommendations for focus on further methods by subsequent iterations of the working party).
Outputs:
- A Practitioner’s Introduction to Stochastic Reserving - The One year view
- Technical Issues in General Insurance (TIGI) 2019: E1: Capital Workshop - Introduction to Stochastic Reserving
- GIRO 2017, Presentation title: “Parameterising emergence factors: how hard can it be?”
- CIGI 2016, Presentation title: “Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving: The One-Year View”
- GIRO 2015, Presentation title: “A Stochastic Bornhuetter-Ferguson Model”
- A practitioner's introduction to Stochastic Reserving
- Alternatively, view the 'living document' (the working version of the pdf)
- Practical challenges in reserve risk
- 2014 GIRO Presentation
- CIGI 2014
- Presentation at Reserving seminar 2014.
| Chair: | Robert Scarth |
|---|---|
| Membership: | 29 |
| Established: | 2013 |
Related documents
-
Guidance for Member-Led Research Working Parties
9 November 2017
Contact Details
If you want more information about this research working party please contact the Communities Team.
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
Behavioural Science Series with Keith Grint - Wicked Problems, Clumsy Solutions and Leading Change
19 April 2021
Wicked Problems, Clumsy Solutions and Leading Change -
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called 'Minimizing longevity and investment risk while optimising future pension plans'. -
Professional Skills Training Webinar - 21 April 2021
21 April 2021
Climate-Related Risk - This free to view webinar on Climate-Related Risk is the first in a series focusing on some of the ‘Hotspots’ identified in the JFAR Risk Perspective bringing the Risk Perspective to life with practical illustrations and insights from subject experts from the IFoA and other Regulators -
Recent decades have seen institutions, such as employers and financial services, give people more choice and flexibility, but these freedoms have come with more responsibilities. Individuals are now responsible for managing more of their own financial risks, from ensuring they put enough money into their pension to securing affordable protection to be financially resilient.
-
Actuarial Innovation in the COVID-19 era
This event is online.26 April 2021 - 7 May 2021
Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a hackathon, that showcase the range of ways in which the actuarial profession has added value, in the public interest, to the understanding and management of the current and future pandemics through insight and learning. -
This event is now temporarily closed on Monday 26 April, but the session will be repeated on Tuesday 27 April, 09.00-10.30. Please click here to register your place.
Actuaries have a lot to offer biodiversity management over the next decade as the world develops more depth to its response to this global challenge. This sessional offers an opportunity to learn about this emergent risk, to contribute to our thinking as a profession and help us develop the next steps forward.
-
Europe Town Hall
28 April 2021
IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual Europe Town Hall, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Alan Rae, Jennifer Hartley, Maribel Vasquez Flores and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.
-
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work -
Finance & Investment Virtual Conference 2021
Available to watch globally in May.10-12 May 2021
This year's Finance and Investment Virtual Conference takes on the timely theme of ‘resilience’, something we have all learnt a lot more about in the last year! Our diverse range of talks will explore the theme of resilience in a variety of ways including in building robust investment portfolios, in the incorporation of ESG factors, in govern -
Wearables in insurance: a win-win opportunity
14 May 2021
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity. -
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list. -
CILA 2021
Available to watch globally in May.19-21 May 2021
We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards. -
Pensions Conference 2021
Online webinar series16-22 June 2021
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.
Wicked Problems, Clumsy Solutions and Leading Change
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called '
Climate-Related Risk - This free to view webinar on Climate-Related Risk is the first in a series focusing on some of the ‘Hotspots’ identified in the 
Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a 
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity.
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list.
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.