Mortality Impact of Vaccination
Leads: John Ng and Scott Reid
- What is the mortality impact of COVID-19 vaccination?
- To what extent is the mortality reduction due to confounding factors, such as lockdown?
- What are the time lags involved?
- Are there signals from antibody data?
April 2021: Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England: publication of models and an update (John Ng, Scott Reid).
This paper presents updated data and findings, as a follow-up to the earlier paper. The associated actuarial and machine learning models are published for open access. The vaccination is estimated to have prevented over 10,000 deaths in those aged 80 and over from mid-January to mid-March 2021. The Public Health England and Warwick University models also adopted counterfactual approaches and yielded broadly consistent results. The COVID-19 vaccines are already preventing deaths at scale in England. Authored by John Ng and Scott Reid.
March 2021: Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England (John Ng, Scott Reid).
In this paper, John Ng and Scott Reid explore whether the data supports early signs of immunity build up and mortality impact on people 80 years of age and above in England. By applying actuarial and data science techniques they explore, through counterfactual “unvaccinated” scenarios, key insights into actual versus expected mortality for 80 years of age and above. Techniques applied include Gompertz function, linear regression and machine learning where historical observation showed that the mortality in younger age groups are great predictors of the mortality in older 80 years of age and above.
General overview on issues to consider for practitioners in pricing life and health products
Lead: Louis Rossouw
- Impact on claims from mortality / morbidity changes
- Considerations when using published models (e.g. Imperial College model) for own purposes on insured portfolios.
- Understanding limitations of data available.
- Drops in financial markets
- Indirect impact on ability to claim product benefits
This report is expected to increase awareness of readers not only about the definitions of measures used but also about the limitations around the available data. Further, the report highlights an increase in the need for readers to be cautious while using different information and statistics in forming a view of the extent of the reach of the virus among masses.
New Business impact for Life and Health insurers
Lead: Adele Groyer
- Underwriting changes to mitigate risk of anti-selection
- Postponements? Exclusions?
- Availability of medical evidence. Ethical questions about putting extra demand on medical professionals at this point.
- Product: Mortality, Over 50s, CI, IP
- IP -> slower terminations, mental wellness
- Over 50s - still viable?
In this paper, Adele Groyer, Christopher Reynolds and Vicky Gardner consider the challenges posed by COVID-19 on the distribution and risk management of new business in the UK individual and group protection space.
This report considers the impact that COVID-19 has had, and continues to have, on the distribution of protection products in the U.K. We begin by considering the impact of the pandemic during the initial phase (when a strict lockdown was in place), the period following the strict lockdown and the potential long-term impact of the pandemic. Authored by Adele Groyer, Chris Reynolds and Vicky Gardner.
Supporting consumers with regard to life and health policies
Lead: Nick Reilly
- Questions around everything going digital – ability to service consumers digitally
- Claims management – how to deal with mental health claims and other causes exacerbated by Covid-19
- Lapse spikes - industry to give premium holidays to prevent consumers losing benefits?
- MedEx – where benefits can no longer be provided
- Saving perspective [Life focus]
In this paper Richard Purcell and Nick Reilly consider the potential direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on customers and what can be done by government and UK providers of protection insurance and long-term savings products to support them.
Identifying insured customers more at risk
Lead: Scott Reid
- What underlying conditions lead to a higher risk and why e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, abnormally high blood pressure, cancer
- Impact on mental illness and suicides
- Deaths at younger ages where there is no underlying reason
In this Paper Scott Reid, David Beddows, Raunak Jha, Nicola Oliver, and John Ng review some of the key studies available to date to understand insights into the impact on mortality and morbidity at a high level from the perspective of an insurer, as well considering how COVID-19 may impact insured populations and which customers are likely to be most at risk.
COVID-19 is causing a severe economic recession in the United Kingdom (UK) due to unprecedented government interventions to control the virus that was declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020 (source: WHO). In this paper, the authors focus on UK unemployment forecasts where the working group have provided an application using R-Shiny to enable actuaries to consider a range of expert opinions and functionality to create custom scenarios. The code for this is open access.
This paper is focused on the economic consequences of COVID-19 on employment and subsequent mental health outcomes.
In this article, IFoA members, Raunak Jha and Scott Reid, consider Indian experience of COVID-19, economic consequences and related mental health issues.
Impact on social care
Lead: James Cripps
- Equitable treatment for care home residents in terms of access to medical care
- Mortality experience for both patients and socio care sector workers
- Assessment the unmet socio care needs during the pandemic
- Consequences of the Coronavirus Act that overrides provisions in the Care Act in regards to care assessments and obligations to meet the care needs of those who meet the eligibility criteria
In this paper, we look to provide some insight into the impact of COVID-19 on social care and the health and wellbeing of those receiving care. We focus on the UK, but we consider the relative outcomes in other countries and any insight that provides.
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This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on the expected future changes. Through examining the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.
The purpose of this research paper is to explore enterprise risk management lessons which can be learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic in preparation for potential future pandemics as well as other “gray rhino” or “black swan” events. This paper is not intended to be an all-encompassing solution to the issues presented by Covid-19; rather, the content has been provided to help drive discussions regarding how risk management processes may need to evolve in line with the dynamic nature of the underlying risks that they sometimes need to capture.
This webinar will discuss good exam technique, including various approaches candidates can take in managing their time completing their exams in the online format.
This session is for new candidates and existing candidates where we will be discussing the practical steps you need to take leading up your exam and on the day. We will be discussing how to testing the online exam platform, downloading and uploading your paper and key information from the Exam Handbook.
The exam webinar is for candidates, new to IFoA exams and returning candidates, sitting in the September 2022 exam session.
The role of Non-Executive Directors has become increasingly challenging and critical over the past few years.
Big picture thinking, Governance knowledge, Independent mindset, Ambassador potential and Energy and commitment: these are the essential skills sought in a successful NED, according to the Chartered Governance Institute (UK & Ireland).
In parallel, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria are increasingly key and used by investors to measure the sustainability and ethical impact of investing in an organisation.
This webinar will cover:
• Some background on the risks of misselling in an ESG context, including the DWS case
• Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities
• This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership
• Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities
In the UK, the idea of collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes is gaining more attention with the launch of the Royal Mail CDC scheme, the first of its kind in the UK. Our recent research on CDC plans investigates the sources of the putative benefits of CDC schemes: the smoothing of pensions for members. Using an attribution analysis to burrow into the scheme design, the reason for the smoothing of members' pensions is explained and understood.
The IFoA's Infrastructure Working Party, led by Chris Lewin, will present its new introductory guide to infrastructure investment, which will be published on the IFoA web-site prior to the webinar. Those readers whose institutions have already taken the plunge into infrastructure will know that it is a highly complex and diverse field of activity. This guide does not explore all the matters which investors take into account, but it does discuss many of the more important points, including the risks and past returns, benchmarking, and ESG and SDG considerations. Attendees will be invi
Social care reform has long been on the to-do list for successive governments over the last two decades. In February, the government’s proposed reforms to adult social care [including cap on care costs] was published. Against this backdrop of funding promise and rising National Insurance taxation, in this session we will debate the resilience of these new proposals, the impact of future demand for care services and what role for the insurance industry and the important role it has played in long-term care funding in other countries where public-private partnership works.
Health contributes to happiness at the personal, family, community and societal level. Health, importantly underpins all our economic security. This talk will explore the drivers of our health, the measurement of health and the steps we can take to improve health – most of which lie outside the NHS.
We are delighted to announce the return of GIRO as an in-person conference, giving you an opportunity to connect with actuaries in your practice area. Join leading experts to discuss key issues, emerging ideas, and new research across the General Insurance sector.
Life Conference returns as an in-person conference in 2022, giving you an opportunity to connect with your peers and fellow actuaries in your sector, in person. You will also hear leading experts discuss key issues, emerging ideas, and new research across the Life insurance sector.
Mortality and morbidity risk varies by variables such as age, sex and smoking. In traditional actuarial experience analysis, these variables, and certain combinations thereof can be explored. However, with the wealth of data now available it is becoming increasingly challenging to identify the key drivers of experience and account for the interaction between different variables. A univariate approach often compares apples and pears, for example males are more likely to smoke and have larger policies than females. Likewise, variable interactions are missed unless specifically included.