Mortality Impact of Vaccination

Leads: John Ng and Scott Reid

Details

  • What is the mortality impact of COVID-19 vaccination?
  • To what extent is the mortality reduction due to confounding factors, such as lockdown?
  • What are the time lags involved?
  • Are there signals from antibody data?

Output:

April 2021: Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England: publication of models and an update (John Ng, Scott Reid).

This paper presents updated data and findings, as a follow-up to the earlier paper. The associated actuarial and machine learning models are published for open access. The vaccination is estimated to have prevented over 10,000 deaths in those aged 80 and over from mid-January to mid-March 2021. The Public Health England and Warwick University models also adopted counterfactual approaches and yielded broadly consistent results. The COVID-19 vaccines are already preventing deaths at scale in England. Authored by John Ng and Scott Reid.

March 2021: Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England (John Ng, Scott Reid).

In this paper, John Ng and Scott Reid explore whether the data supports early signs of immunity build up and mortality impact on people 80 years of age and above in England. By applying actuarial and data science techniques they explore, through counterfactual “unvaccinated” scenarios, key insights into actual versus expected mortality for 80 years of age and above. Techniques applied include Gompertz function, linear regression and machine learning where historical observation showed that the mortality in younger age groups are great predictors of the mortality in older 80 years of age and above. 

General overview on issues to consider for practitioners in pricing life and health products

Code: H&C1

Lead: Louis Rossouw

Detail:

  • Impact on claims from mortality / morbidity changes
  • Considerations when using published models (e.g. Imperial College model) for own purposes on insured portfolios. 
  • Understanding limitations of data available.
  • Drops in financial markets
  • Indirect impact on ability to claim product benefits

Outputs

Statistics, Ratios and understanding limitations of data available

This report is expected to increase awareness of readers not only about the definitions of measures used but also about the limitations around the available data. Further, the report highlights an increase in the need for readers to be cautious while using different information and statistics in forming a view of the extent of the reach of the virus among masses.

New Business impact for Life and Health insurers

Code: H&C2

Lead: Adele Groyer

Detail

  • Underwriting changes to mitigate risk of anti-selection
  • Postponements?  Exclusions?
  • Availability of medical evidence.  Ethical questions about putting extra demand on medical professionals at this point.
  • Product:  Mortality, Over 50s, CI, IP
  • IP -> slower terminations, mental wellness
  • Over 50s - still viable?

Outputs

Blog: Impact on new business in Health & Care

COVID-19 Report: Impact on New Business  

In this paper, Adele Groyer, Christopher Reynolds and Vicky Gardner consider the challenges posed by COVID-19 on the distribution and risk management of new business in the UK individual and group protection space. 

Impact on distribution of protection products

This report considers the impact that COVID-19 has had, and continues to have, on the distribution of protection products in the U.K. We begin by considering the impact of the pandemic during the initial phase (when a strict lockdown was in place), the period following the strict lockdown and the potential long-term impact of the pandemic. Authored by Adele Groyer, Chris Reynolds and Vicky Gardner.

Supporting consumers with regard to life and health policies 

Code: H&C3

Lead: Nick Reilly

Detail

  • Questions around everything going digital – ability to service consumers digitally
  • Claims management – how to deal with mental health claims and other causes exacerbated by Covid-19
  • Lapse spikes - industry to give premium holidays to prevent consumers losing benefits?
  • MedEx – where benefits can no longer be provided 
  • Saving perspective [Life focus]

Outputs

COVID-19 Report: Supporting protection insurance and savings customers 

In this paper Richard Purcell and Nick Reilly consider the potential direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on customers and what can be done by government and UK providers of protection insurance and long-term savings products to support them.

Identifying insured customers more at risk

Code: H&C4

Lead: Scott Reid

Detail:

  • What underlying conditions lead to a higher risk and why e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, abnormally high blood pressure, cancer
  • Impact on mental illness and suicides
  • Deaths at younger ages where there is no underlying reason

Outputs

COVID-19 Report: Identifying insured customers more at risk 

In this Paper Scott Reid, David Beddows, Raunak Jha, Nicola Oliver, and John Ng review some of the key studies available to date to understand insights into the impact on mortality and morbidity at a high level from the perspective of an insurer, as well considering how COVID-19 may impact insured populations and which customers are likely to be most at risk.

COVID-19 Report: COVID-19 and pandemic response unemployment model

COVID-19 is causing a severe economic recession in the United Kingdom (UK) due to unprecedented government interventions to control the virus that was declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020 (source: WHO).  In this paper, the authors focus on UK unemployment forecasts where the working group have provided an application using R-Shiny to enable actuaries to consider a range of expert opinions and functionality to create custom scenarios. The code for this is open access.

COVID-19 Report: Economic hardship, health and COVID-19

This paper is focused on the economic consequences of COVID-19 on employment and subsequent mental health outcomes.

COVID-19 Article: An article on Indian experience of COVID-19, economic consequences and related mental health issues

In this article, IFoA members, Raunak Jha and Scott Reid, consider Indian experience of COVID-19, economic consequences and related mental health issues.

Impact on social care

Code: H&C5

Lead: James Cripps

Detail:

LTC

  • Equitable treatment for care home residents in terms of access to medical care
  • Mortality experience for both patients and socio care sector workers
  • Assessment the unmet socio care needs during the pandemic
  • Consequences of the Coronavirus Act that overrides provisions in the Care Act in regards to care assessments and obligations to meet the care needs of those who meet the eligibility criteria

Outputs:

Covid-19 Report:  Impact on social care

In this paper, we look to provide some insight into the impact of COVID-19 on social care and the health and wellbeing of those receiving care. We focus on the UK, but we consider the relative outcomes in other countries and any insight that provides.

Blog, 3 August 2020

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