An Introduction to Stochastic Mortality Models

This workshop will give participants an introduction to the key elements of stochastic mortality modelling. The first session will look first at why you might wish to use a stochastic mortality model: broadly as one element of a wider programme of good enterprise risk management. This will be followed by an overview of the main stochastic mortality models including the Lee-Carter and CBD models. An important part of this is to help newcomers to the field to work their way successfully through the model selection process. This will include extensive use of graphical diagnostics as well as other qualitative criteria. The second session will look at how to generate stochastic forecasts. Participants will be guided through the process of choosing a specific time series model and discuss the appropriateness of specific time series models. 

The workshop is targeted at individuals and organisations who want to take their first steps towards the use of stochastic mortality models in a pensions, insurance or related setting. Some general prior knowledge of statistics and time series modelling will be beneficial.