Sessional Meeting: Managing Uncertainty: Principles for Improved Decision Making

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Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed, decisions.  However many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help.  Six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty are proposed.  These follow extensive discussions and literature reviews over a five year period by the members of the Managing Uncertainty working party.  The initial version of the paper was presented at GIRO 2018 in a professionalism context, but the authors believe that the principles are relevant more broadly than in general insurance. Whilst this is an important topic for actuaries, the intended audience is any decision maker or advisor in any sector (public or private).  The human aspects of decision making under uncertainty are relevant throughout the paper and we are keen to have a discussion that will be as challenging as possible.