Insurance risk CPD resources for enterprise risk management

General insurance - shipping, aviation and other Lloyd's risks

• Lloyd's research page. Lloyd's conducts a range of research projects throughout the year from emerging risks to identifying opportunities in new markets.
• Lloyd's realistic disaster scenarios. Lloyd's has devised a set of realistic disaster scenarios (RDS) to stress test both individual syndicates and the market as a whole to see how they stand up to chains of accumulated exposure in very extreme cases - contemplating over $100bn of insurance industry losses.
• Swiss Re natural catastrophe papers. Swiss Re has been investigating questions relating to natural catastrophes for many years with an aim to better assess and manage the risks from natural disasters in the insurance industry. Findings from its catastrophe research are published for the insurance industry and all interested sectors of the general public.
• Natural catastrophe risk and the changing environment. Presentation at the Challenges in Risk Management for Insurance symposium held by the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences (ICMS) in Edinburgh, Nov 2007.

Longevity risk

• Longevitas information matrix. Longevitas are a consultancy specialising in longevity risk and their site is a useful source of information on this risk.
• Longevity risk and annuity pricing with the Lee-Carter model [pdf]. An interesting paper, by Stephen Richards and Iain Currie (2009), on longevity risk, particularly model risk.
• Sales of enhanced annuities increase by a third. A 2009 Watson Wyatt report monitoring the impaired life annuity market which gives rise to anti-selection against conventional annuities.
• Drivers of longevity projections in particular with reference to smoking. SIAS paper, April 2008
• Mortality trends. Mortality trend graphs .

Mortality risk - non-disclosure

• Insurance contract law: misrepresentation, non-disclosure and breach of warranty by the insured [pdf]. Law Commission, 2007. A consultation paper on non-disclosure.
  Summary [pdf].

Mortality risk - pandemics

• Actuarial Profession's pandemic working party. Contact Pauline Simpson (pauline.simpson@actuaries.org.uk).
  • Update presentation to the CILA 2007 [pdf]
• Society of Actuaries pandemic research links:
  • General link
  • Overall impact report by Jim Toole, 2007.
  • Economic impacts by Tom Edwalds, Scott Cochran, Robert Gleeson, Max Rudolph, Bill Sayre, Jan Schuh, Ronora Stryker, 2007.
  • Insured mortality by Tom Edwalds, Scott Cochran, Robert Gleeson, Max Rudolph, Bill Sayre, Jan Schuh, Ronora Stryker, 2007.
  • Influenza pandemic. The impact on an insured lives life insurance portfolio by Andrea Stracke and Winfried Heinen. The Actuary, June 2010
• Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR). A World Health Organisation pandemic alert site.
• Pandemic flu: a national framework for responding to an influenza pandemic. The Department of Health Pandemic Contingency Plan, 2007.
  • Analysis of the scientific evidence base [pdf]. Government Cabinet Office, 2007.
  • 2009 Swine Flu outbreak: UK planning assumptions [pdf].  Government Cabinet Office.
• CRO Position paper - Influenza pandemics. 2007.
• Research by Swiss Re:
  • Pandemic Influenza: a 21st century model for mortality shocks [pdf]. Jul 2007. Follow-up report.
• Pandemic: potential insurance impacts [pdf]. Lloyd's emerging risks paper.
• 1918 flu pandemic. A history from Wikipedia.

Persistency risk

• 2008 Survey of the persistency of life and pensions policies [pdf]. FSA, 2008.
• 2010 Resourcing and Talent Planning Survey. Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development surveys. Useful for benchmarking corporate pensions withdrawal rates.
• An underestimated risk [pdf]. Article by Bruce Porteous for Credit Today, 2003. A useful insight on persistency risk in banking.
• Mortgage prepayments risk study. A study undertaken by Simon Perry, Stuart Robinson and Rohn Rowland for the Actuarial Profession in 2001.

Other areas of insurance risk

The areas listed below are being developed. If you have any interesting papers or sites which you feel should be included here, please let us know.

• General insurance - property risk

• General insurance - motor risk
• General insurance - employers and public liability risk
• General insurance - creditor risks
• Option exercise risk
• Expense risk

If you have any interesting papers or sites on insurance risk which you feel should be included here, please send them to Dawn McIntosh, the manager for the ERM practice executive committee (dawn.mcintosh@actuaries.org.uk).