Analysis of companies DoT returns

Document description

A question of some topicality at the present time is whether there exist any simple tests of a company's, performance, as exhibited in the statutory returns, which might provide the supervisory authority with an early-warning of a possible adverse experience. Among the aspects which have been discussed in this connection are:

1) Certain key claims ratios;

2) The chain-ladder test;

3) The track-record of past estimating.

To date the discussion of these methods has been hampered by the absence of any systematic investigation into how effectively they work in practice when applied over a wide range of companies over an extended period of time. The research group therefore decided to examine these aspects with a view to presenting results in a manner which might provide some insight into the effectiveness of the various tests.