Claims run-off patterns update
The attached tables update those presented to the General Insurance Study Group (GISG) in October 1990, by including data from the 1989 returns in their calculation. The methodology derives from the report of the working party on claims run-off patterns presented to GISG in October 1989.Following comments at GISG in 1990, two changes have been made. For the inflation adjusted chain ladder (IACL) and average claim (AVC) methods we have reverted to our previous assumption that future inflation at 8% (10% was assumed for the 1990 tables) is implicit in companies' estimates of outstandings. The run-off patterns for comprehensive and non- comprehensive motor are now distinct for the first 6 years (5 years in 1990) of the run-off (years 0-5). For later years (except for five companies which distinguished comp and non-comp prior to 1981), a common run-off pattern has been used.