Longevity in the 21st century

Document description

This paper was originally presented to the Faculty on 15 March 2004. This is an updated version for presentation to the Institute on 26 April 2004. The main objective of this paper is to offer a detailed analysis of mortality change in the United Kingdom at the beginning of the 21st century. Starting from an exploration of 20th century mortality trends, focusing in particular on the 1990s, underlying forces driving trends in longevity are discussed. These include the 'cohort effect' and the 'ageing of mortality improvement'. International mortality statistics and trends are also analysed. The pace of medical advances is discussed with specific focus on research into the ageing process and a potential treatment for cardiovascular disease. The paper also discusses the potential threat from infectious diseases. Keywords: mortality; longevity; ageing; annuities; cohort effect