CMI Working paper 12

Working paper 12 makes available the proposed new tables of mortality (the 00 series) for assured lives and temporary assurances. The tables given are as follows.

Erratum (added 5 May 2011): Formula (1) on page 17 of Working paper 12 is incorrect. This erratum gives the corrected formula.

These tables are based on the "all office" mortality experience for 1999-2002, as detailed in CMI Report 21 which was published in September 2004. The CMI consulted the profession about these, and other, proposed mortality tables in Working paper 8 (WP8), which was published in May 2004.  That paper was discussed at a seminar held in Staple Inn in June 2004.

The 00 series of tables of mortality for pensioners and annuitants requires a projection of future mortality improvements to be incorporated in them. Matters being considered by the CMI in relation to these projections were described in WP3, which was published in March 2004. That paper was also discussed at the seminar in June. Work on the projections continues and is not expected to be completed until mid 2005. At that point the full proposed tables, including the projections, will be made available.

The profession will be consulted about the suitability of all the new tables once the complete proposals are published. Given consultation already carried out by the CMI it is hoped that this second phase will not be prolonged and it is expected that all the finalised tables will be formally published in the third quarter of 2005.

The proposed new tables of mortality for assured lives and temporary assurances are significantly lighter than the previous 92 series of tables. However, the new tables are consistent with the results disclosed in the CMI’s regular annual reports on industry mortality experience, the quadrennium report in CMI Report 21 and with the information contained in WP8. That paper gave a detailed comparison of the 1999-2002 experience with the 92 series tables, including confidence intervals for mortality rates at particular ages. In this way information as to the shape and level of mortality that the new tables will be required to describe was disclosed.

The CMI is aware that some offices are required, for some purposes, to use the latest published mortality tables. It should be noted that the information that is now being made available does not constitute “publication” of the tables. As already explained, this should happen later in the year. An announcement will be made once this date is known.