CMI Working paper 41
Working paper 41 and the launch of the new CMI Mortality Projections Model, 'CMI_2009'
Note: An updated model, 'CMI_2012', is now available here
Working paper 41 accompanies the launch of the first live version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model and is issued alongside the model, a user guide and a set of parameter sensitivity test results. This follows the CMI’s publication in June 2009 of a prototype mortality projections model (CPMv0.0). The prototype model was issued for consultation and was accompanied by its user guide and two CMI working papers: Working paper 38 provided an overview of the model and set out specific questions for the consultation; Working paper 39 detailed further analysis to help inform the setting of parameter values for the model.
Consultation meetings were held in Edinburgh and London in July 2009 and over 30 written responses to the consultation were received. The CMI is grateful to all those who contributed.
Working paper 41 summarises the responses to each of the consultation questions posed in Working paper 38, together with the Working Party’s comments and details of the actions taken to develop the first live version of the model.
The structure of the model has been left broadly unchanged from the prototype version. However, the default parameters contained in the model have been updated to reflect the publication of England and Wales population data for calendar year 2008.
As a result, default initial rates of mortality improvement have slightly reduced in general from those published in the prototype version and accordingly core projections generated by the new version of the model produce life expectancies and annuity values which are marginally lower than those produced by the prototype model (with other parameters held constant).
In addition, the naming convention has been revised: this first live version of the model will be referred to as ‘CMI_2009’ rather than ‘CPMv1.0’.
Documents
- Working paper 41
- Revised, live model (CMI_2009)
- User guide accompanying CMI_2009
- Additional results for the parameter sensitivity tests, as described in the user guide.
Presentations on the feedback to the consultation were made at the Current issues in life assurance seminar in October 2009, and at the Current issues in pensions seminars in November 2009. The slides from the first of these presentations can be accessed here.