CMI Working paper 69
Working paper 69: The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2013, and feedback on the consultation on the future of the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and the CMI Mortality Projections Model
CMI Working paper 69 accompanies the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2013, and is issued alongside the Model and an updated User Guide.
The structure of the CMI_2013 Model is identical to that of the previous versions; however, the default parameters contained in the model have been updated to reflect the publication of England & Wales population mortality data for calendar year 2012. This Working paper illustrates the impact of incorporating data for 2012.
This Working Paper also summarises the responses to the recent consultation on the future of the Model and the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and outlines the Committee’s reaction and planned next steps.
The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement are higher than those published in CMI_2012 at the youngest ages, for both males and females, however they are lower at older ages, again for both males and female. These reductions at older ages mean that Core Projections generated by CMI_2013 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2012 (with other parameters held constant) for both males and females.
Documents
- CMI Working paper 69
- User guide accompanying CMI_2013
- The updated Model, CMI_2013
- Age-period-cohort model - males and Age-period-cohort model - females
These spreadsheets have been issued in response to the consultation, where there were requests for increased transparency of the derivation of the Age/Period and Cohort Components of the initial rates of improvement.
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can be accessed as follows:
- CMI_2012 and its User Guide can be accessed alongside Working paper 63
- CMI_2011 and its User Guide can be accessed alongside Working paper 55
- CMI_2010 and its User Guide can be accessed alongside Working paper 49
- CMI_2009, its User Guide and an Excel spreadsheet containing additional results for the parameter sensitivity tests, as described in the User Guide, can be accessed alongside Working paper 41