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CMI Working papers 38 and 39

Working papers 38 and 39 and the prototype version of the CMI mortality projections model

Working paper 38 was published in June 2009. It introduced the prototype mortality projections model, gave an overview of the Working Party’s research into the latest mortality experience trends, and illustrated some sample projections produced by the prototype model.

Working paper 39 was then published in July 2009 providing further detail on the Working Party’s research and analysis.

The CMI had become concerned about the continuing widespread use of the ‘interim cohort’ mortality projections. These projections do not take account of experience data published for years after 1999 and - as a result - have become increasingly out-of-date.

The Working Party was therefore established to develop a projection model which:

  • reflects the latest experience on trends in mortality
  • is relatively straightforward to understand and describe
  • allows users the flexibility to modify projections to suit their own views and purpose; and
  • can be regularly updated over time to reflect emerging experience

The structure of the prototype mortality projection model is based on the projection of annual rates of mortality improvement, and assumes that ‘current’ rates of change will blend over time into a ‘long-term’ rate of improvement specified by the user. The model produces a single, deterministic, mortality projection for each set of user inputs and may be operated at different levels of complexity, reflecting the needs and resources of different users and uses.

The prototype model was published for consultation, along with a number of specific questions included in Working paper 38. The consultation period closed on 31 August 2009, and the Working Party produced Working paper 41 setting out a summary of the responses to the consultation, together with the Working Party’s comments and details of the actions taken. This was published on 23 November 2009 alongside the first live version of the model, ‘CMI_2009’. See the link on the right to access the model, the working papers, and an updated user guide and set of parameter sensitivity test results.

Documents

Please contact the CMI should you require a copy of the prototype model, CPMv0.0, its user guide or set of parameter sensitivity test results which were published alongside Working papers 38 and 39.