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Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk

This programme is application driven, with impact and innovation in the pensions and insurance industries and beyond as its primary aims

Programme objectives

  • development of the next generation of single and multi-population mortality models that are robust, straightforward to apply and that are designed explicitly to push back the barriers to financial innovation
  • developing open access modelling of the key drivers of mortality such as smoking, obesity and other lifestyle factors and understanding how these interact with all-cause mortality and cause-of-death mortality data
  • development of a robust, scientific approach that helps key stakeholders to understand better the wider range of options for managing longevity risk
  • development of new methods for pricing and reserving for Critical Illness Insurance.

This multidisciplinary team is led by Professor Andrew Cairns (Heriot-Watt University). The programme is co-sponsored with the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. The programme supports two PhD students in actuarial science.

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Recent Events

CIA Webcast, 29 January 2020

EPISODE 36: TRENDS IN CANADIAN MORTALITY BY PENSION LEVEL

Learn more about this joint study that used Canada Pension Plan and Québec Pension Plan data to examine the mortality of Canadian pensioners subdivided by pension level. Professor Andrew Cairns and Gavin Benjamin (Co-chair of the CIA's Project Oversight Group), discuss key findings, forensic analysis of mortality by pension level, data anomalies, and the benefits of collaboration. Read the paper: http://bit.ly/2NChJNV 

Annual ARC Workshop, 02 December 2019

The research team (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh) discussed their work on mortality and deprivation, cause of death, and modelling the impact of socio-economic and geographical effects. The workshop highlighted the wider impact of this research programme, with further discussion on other areas of interest and development. The presentation slides from this workshop are available to view in the outputs and events section. Recordings of the event are available on the IFoA's YouTube channel.

Contact Details

If you want more information about our research programmes please contact the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre:

arc@actuaries.org.uk

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Events calendar

  • Finance in the Public Interest Series

    16 March 2021 - 23 March 2021

    Spaces available

    There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.

  • The price is righter

    16 March 2021

    Spaces available

    This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.

  • Spaces available

    This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)

     

  • Spaces available

    What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.

  • Spaces available

    Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis.  However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year.  This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.