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Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding Longevity and Morbidity Risks

This commissioned research programme develops new methods for assessing basis risk and evaluating longevity improvement based on Big Health and Actuarial Data
Programme objectives
  • identification and quantification of the key factors affecting mortality/longevity such as lifestyle choices, medical conditions and/or interventions
  • modelling of temporal changes in the factors affecting morbidity and mortality
  • evaluation of plausible scenarios in mortality trends due to particular medical advances or lifestyle changes on the population of insureds of relevance to actuarial community
  • tools to forecast longevity risk of a book based on realistic scenarios of uptake of various health behaviours and/or interventions, or of particular disruptions to population health.
The multidisciplinary University of East Anglia (UEA)/Aviva team is led by Prof Elena Kulinskaya and includes actuaries, statisticians, health economists, computer scientists and medical researchers. The funding supports three PhD students and a postdoctoral researcher. For more information, please visit the team's research project website.
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Latest news
  • ARC Webinar Series 2018 – Monday 17 September, 9am and 5pm (BST)
Following the successful launch of last year’s webinar series, the Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) is running a further series of webinars to showcase its largest cutting-edge research programmes, addressing some of the significant challenges in actuarial science.
During this webinar, viewers heard from the Principal Investigator of this research programme, Professor Elena Kulinskaya (University of East Anglia) and Co-Investigator Nigel Wright (Aviva).
The objectives of this research programme and some of the early developments since its commencement in 2016 were highlighted. Viewers were able to join the debate from any location in the world. Viewers voted in polls and asked questions via the live feed.
A recording of the webinar is available to view here and is posted on the IFoA's online learning webpages.
A copy of the presentation is available to view on the research programme's outputs webpage.
It was not possible to answer all of the questions submitted during the webinar. Answers to these additional questions can be found here. 
  • ARC Sessional: How Medical Advances and Health Interventions Will Shape Future Longevity
Following the success of the impact workshop in May, the Big health and Actuarial Data research programme held a sessional meeting in Edinburgh on 25 June.
In this sessional Professor Elena Kulinskaya (Principal Investigator) and Nigel Wright (Co-investigator) discussed Prof Kulinskaya’s co-authored paper How Medical Advances and Health Interventions Will Shape Future Longevity. This paper showed how estimated mortality hazards can be translated to hypothetical changes in life expectancies at the individual and population levels.
A copy of the presentation is available to view on the research programme's outputs webpage.
  • International Congress of Actuaries, Berlin 2018
Wednesday 6 June, 14.00 – 16.00
Professor Elena Kulinskaya and the research programme’s co-investigators delivered a presentation on the 'role of medical advances in population longevity improvement. A case study of statins'.
For more information please visit the conference website. A copy of the presentation is available to view on the research programme's outputs webpage.
  • ARC Impact Workshop: The impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections

Thursday 17 May, Staple Inn Hall, London

Delivered in partnership with the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the ESRC funded Business and Local Government Data Research Centre, this invitation only impact workshop, brought together a wide range of stakeholders to explore how medical advances and health interventions could impact on longevity and population projections, and to consider potential outcomes for public policy and business/industry models, across a range of sectors.

Jules Constantinou (President-elect, IFoA) chaired the event and Professor David Hand, Imperial College London and past president of the Royal Statistical Society, introduced the day’s events. The audience also heard from experts from Aviva, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Legal and General and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The day closed with a discussion panel, chaired by Dame Karen Dunnell, past Director of the ONS. Presentations from the day are available to view on the research programme’s outputs webpage.

Professor Elena Kulinskaya, the Principal Investigator for this research programme was delighted with the day’s success and stated that “the input at this ARC impact workshop, from such a broad range of experts, will provide hugely valuable insight to the research programme".

The key highlights from the impact workshop will be posted here soon.

  • International Biometric Conference
8-13 July 2018, Barcelona, Spain
Dr Lisanne Gitsels delivered a presentation on the ideal blood pressure: assessment of fixed and variant targets over time in clinical trial and routine clinical practice.
A copy of the presentation is available to view on the research programme's outputs webpage.

Contact Details

If you want more information about our research programmes please contact the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre: