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Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding Longevity and Morbidity Risks

This commissioned research programme develops new methods for assessing basis risk and evaluating longevity improvement based on Big Health and Actuarial Data

Programme objectives

  • identification and quantification of the key factors affecting mortality/longevity such as lifestyle choices, medical conditions and/or interventions
  • modelling of temporal changes in the factors affecting morbidity and mortality
  • evaluation of plausible scenarios in mortality trends due to particular medical advances or lifestyle changes on the population of insureds of relevance to actuarial community
  • tools to forecast longevity risk of a book based on realistic scenarios of uptake of various health behaviours and/or interventions, or of particular disruptions to population health.
The multidisciplinary University of East Anglia (UEA)/Aviva team is led by Prof Elena Kulinskaya and includes actuaries, statisticians, health economists, computer scientists and medical researchers. The funding supports three PhD students and a postdoctoral researcher. For more information, please visit the team's UEA research project website.

Recent Events

Life expectancy calculator, September 2020, Online Launch

On 3 September the research programme launched its MyLongevity app, which could assist in illustrating the effect of various medical and lifestyle factors on life expectancy.
The Mylongevity app uses big data from anonymised electronic health records in England and Wales to calculate life expectancy, taking into account socio-demographic and health characteristics such as chronic diseases.
The new app could potentially bring practical benefits, such as helping people plan for retirement. It could also contribute to scientific understanding of how certain behaviours and lifestyles affect longevity.
The app uses calculations based on UK life expectancy figures published by the Office for National Statistics and then refined by the researchers. The ARC Programme has identified and quantified the key factors affecting mortality and longevity and translated the results of their analysis into life expectancies for different risk profiles.

Online International Conference in Actuarial science, data science and finance (OICA), April 2020, Online Conference 

Nurunnahar Akter (Postgraduate research student) presented her research regarding HRT and its impact on mortality.

Technical Workshop - Beyond proportional hazards, October 2019, London

On 30 October 2019, Elena and her research team delivered a workshop at Staple Inn Hall which set out to cover contemporary methods of survival analysis and their use in assessment of possible changes in longevity and population life expectancy due to medical advances. The event was recorded and is available to view on the IFoA's YouTube channel and Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). Workshop presentations are available to view on the programme's outputs webpage

Heriot-Watt University, September 2019 , Edinburgh

The research team’s work on landmark analysis of statins was presented by Prof Kulinskaya to students at Heriot-Watt University.

Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference, September 2019, Belfast

Ilyas Bakbergenuly (Senior Research Associate) travelled to Belfast to talk over the research team’s work on landmark analysis of statins.

40th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics ISCB40, July 2019, Belgium

Lisanne Gitsels (Senior Research Associate) was in Belgium to discuss the survival benefits of statin therapy in primary care.

The Research Student’s Conference (RSC) in Probability and Statistics, June 2019, Exeter

Padma Chutoo (PhD Student) provided an update on the programme’s Stroke analysis and Nurunnahar Akter (PhD student) provided an update on the programme’s Hormone Replacement Therapy analysis.    

 

 

 

Contact Details

If you want more information about our research programmes please contact the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre:

arc@actuaries.org.uk

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Events calendar

  • Finance in the Public Interest Series

    16 March 2021 - 23 March 2021

    Spaces available

    There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.

  • The price is righter

    16 March 2021

    Spaces available

    This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.

  • Spaces available

    This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)

     

  • Spaces available

    What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.

  • Spaces available

    Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis.  However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year.  This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.