Each issue of the Longevity Bulletin presents and explains actuarial perspectives on themes emerging from, or impacting, population longevity, as well as looking beyond the actuarial world for statistics, research and the latest thinking on related subjects. In doing so, it aims to provide general and technical perspectives to best address relevant longevity topics, as well as serving to provoke thought and further discussion.
Issue 13: The coronavirus issue
2020 saw the emergence of a global pandemic as coronavirus swept across the world and countries took action to contain the virus. Despite the encouraging news of potential vaccines, the situation is still ongoing and we are still in the midst of the crisis. As we approach the end of 2020, Issue 13 of the Longevity Bulletin looks at the ongoing pandemic and its ramifications from a number of different perspectives:
- The pandemic’s second wave – what is likely to happen, and how can we best contain the second wave?
- Winter mortality – how might winter exacerbate the coronavirus pandemic?
- ‘Long Covid’ – what are the longer-term effects of the disease on survivors?
- The mortality cost of reduced (non-Covid) healthcare
- Mortality impacts of the post-pandemic recession
- Socioeconomic differentials in Covid-19 mortality
- Longer-term mortality impacts – should we even use the phrase ‘future mortality improvements’?
Also included in this issue is news from the Continuing Mortality Investigation (CMI) on its pandemic-related activity, and the profession’s recently formed ICAT – the IFoA COVID-19 Action Taskforce.
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As part of the ARC Webinar Series 2021, this webinar will review the work of the UEA/Aviva research team over the last four years on a major research programme funded by the IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre.
Climate change poses a significant threat across many regions and sectors, and businesses. Insurers and asset managers, must play a role in ensuring transparency around climate related risks and opportunities.
Whilst insurers have been performing stress and scenario testing for many years, in the last 12 months the PRA has increased its focus on the ability to identify, measure and increase financial and operational resilience.
There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.
This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.
This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)
What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called 'Minimizing longevity and investment risk while optimising future pension plans'.
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.