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Behavioural Science Series: Adapting to Radical Uncertainty

Monday 28 June 2021 09:30 - 11:00

The world is changing. The fourth industrial revolution, globalisation and the Covid-19 pandemic are up-ending traditional social and business norms around the world; changes that were once predictable, steady, and stationary are now becoming unpredictable, non-linear and non-stationary. In response to this tumultuous transformation, Tan Suee Chieh has advocated a reinvention of the actuarial profession, through the adoption of the IFoA’s Vision, Skills, Mindsets and Domains (VSMD) Strategy, to ensure actuaries remain relevant and forward-looking. As part of the Behavioural Science Series, Melinda Strudwick, Andrew Smith, Neil Cantle and Paul Kaye will discuss the challenges faced by decision makers in trying to impose certainty on very uncertain situations and how the effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed, decision making. Many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help.

During this webinar, the speakers will outline the necessary principles to help manage or adapt to uncertainty, which were formed following extensive debate and research over a five year period. While this is an important topic for actuaries, the learnings from the webinar are designed to equip all professionals in a decision-making role in any sector - public or private.


Melinda Strudwick

Melinda is a qualified actuary and a Partner in PwC’s Risk Modelling Services practice with over 15 years’ experience in the non-life insurance industry. She advises many UK and European insurers and reinsurers, spanning personal and commercial lines, and Lloyd’s/London Market. She leads a range of actuarial, risk and regulatory services, including risk & capital, audit, reserving and IFRS17.

She leads PwC’s Risk and Capital team in the general insurance market. She specialises in risk management, model validation, internal model approval, capital management, regulatory change and approvals. She has a long track record of supporting successful Wave 1 and Wave 2 firms with their IMAP applications.

Melinda is also co-chair of the IFOA General Insurance Research Organisation (GIRO) 'Managing Uncertainty' working party.

Neil Cantle

Neil is a Principal and Consulting Actuary working in Milliman’s London office. He is one of the leaders of the London office and of the Complex Risk Solutions team based in Chicago. Neil is widely considered a thought leader in risk management – he created and leads Milliman’s CRisALIS solution for assessing complex risk. He is a past chair of the IFoA Risk Management Board and Risk Research and Thought Leadership Committee and is currently a member of the Actuaries for Transformational Change and FinSTIC groups,


Andrew Smith

Andrew Smith is an honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries with more than thirty years' experience in the insurance and pensions industries. He has recently moved into an academic role at University College Dublin, where his research interests include stochastic modelling and risk management.



Paul Kaye

Paul currently works 2 days a week at Aon focusing on the actuarial aspects of Aviation reinsurance and modelling.  He is also a recently qualified Maths teacher based at a large comprehensive school in North Essex.  He previously led the reinsurance actuarial team at Aon in London.  Prior to joining Benfield Group in 2000 he spent 13 years in various underwriting and analytical roles at Commercial Union / CGU.  

He was one of the co-chairs of the IFoA Managing Uncertainty working party and a previous member of the Risk Appetite working party.  He also had his paper on Risk Measurement in Insurance published by the Casualty Actuarial Society in 2005.  He is a Maths graduate, Chartered Insurance Broker, and a director of the Lighthill Risk Network.

Event organiser

Contact Niki Park for more information.

020 7632 2152