Resource and Environment Sessional Webinar - Climate Scenario Analysis: A Top-down Approach for Exploring the Economic and Financial Market Impacts of Climate Change
The webinar will introduce two papers prepared through a collaboration between an IFoA working party and Ortec Finance. The papers explore how scenario analysis can be used as a tool for forward-looking assessment of climate-related risks and opportunities for financial institutions. They use Ortec Finance’s top-down modelling approach which combines climate science with macro-economic and financial modelling in order to integrate quantified climate impacts into asset-liability modelling. Three scenarios are considered: two scenarios in which the Paris Agreement climate targets are met, one in an orderly manner and one disorderly, and a third scenario in which we fail to transition to a low-carbon economy. The first paper applies the scenarios to an example defined benefit pension scheme, illustrating how climate change might affect the evolution of its funding position over the next twenty years. The second paper explores the potential long-term effects of climate change on the economy and financial markets in more depth by providing further detail of the modelling outputs over the period to 2060.
Chair: Louise Pryor
Louise has had a varied career as an actuary, software engineer and academic. She is currently Chair of the London Climate Change Partnership, which focuses on adaptation to climate risks, a Non-Executive Director of the Ecology Building Society, and the incoming President-Elect of the IFoA.
Co-head Climate & ESG Solutions at Ortec Finance
Lisa dedicates her efforts to mainstreaming climate change across the investment decision process by integrating responsible investment data and methodologies into mainstream financial technology and solutions. In her role at Ortec Finance she has been innovating and driving the development of integrated climate & ESG solutions for our institutional investor clients worldwide. Lisa is also actively involved in various networks including the technical development of the Open-Source Climate platform, the codebase development of the SBTi -Finance portfolio temperature alignment tool, as well as working groups on climate scenario analysis under the UN PRI, NGFS, IIGCC.
Lisa has focused her studies and career on facilitating the interactions between science and policy providing analysis and advice on topics relevant for the transition towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. Lisa earned her Master of Science in Environmental Management and Masters of Arts in Global Public Policy at Duke University, USA.
Claire is an actuary with approximately 20 years’ experience spanning pensions, investment and sustainability. She is a partner and Head of Responsible Investment at LCP where she helps clients to include environmental, social and governance factors in their investment processes, with the aim of delivering sustainable long-term financial returns.
Claire was a member of the IFoA Resource and Environment Board from January 2014 to August 2019. She is a former Chair of the Board’s Research and CPD Subcommittee and established the working party that produced a Practical Guide to Resource and Environment issues for Pensions Actuaries. She represents the IFoA on the Pensions Climate Risk Industry Group.
Nick Spencer, MA FIA
Nick is a sustainable investment strategist. He founded Gordian Advice to help UK Pension Funds integrate responsible investment into their investment strategies and portfolios. In under two years, Gordian Advice has helped a range of corporate DB, LGPS and DC clients who are responsible for over £100 bn in assets. Before Gordian Advice, Nick led the strategic advice for large EMEA institutions at Russell Investments and was their EMEA lead on Responsible Investing.
Nick is the Deputy Chair of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Resource & Environment Board and co-Chair of the IFoA’s Climate-related risk taskforce. Nick was a member of the Resource & Environmental Issues for Defined Benefit Pension Actuaries Working Party and a co-author of “Climate change considerations for actuarial financial assumptions and the role of scenario analysis”.
Nick is a passionate believer on the importance of values & culture and an advocate for aligning the asset management industry with a broad societal purpose. He was Co-chair of Russell Investments’ EMEA Diversity & Inclusion committee & is an Ambassador for the Diversity Project. He is also an affiliate of Pensions for Purpose.
Andrew is a Scheme Actuary working for Aon, advising pension schemes on how to manage risk, including that from climate change. Andrew was a member of the Resource & Environmental Issues for Defined Benefit Pension Actuaries Working Party and also a co-author of “Climate change considerations for actuarial financial assumptions and the role of scenario analysis”. Andrew also helped Aon develop their climate change scenarios.
Bert Kramer joined Ortec Finance in 1995. His current position is business specialist Climate & ESG Solutions. Bert Kramer also holds a position at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Groningen, where he teaches the Econometrics Master course Asset Liability Management (ALM), and where he supervises Econometrics and Finance students writing their Master thesis. He holds a master degree in Econometrics and a Ph.D. in Business from the University of Groningen, both passed cum laude. He has held an Assistant Professor of Finance position at Tilburg University, and was a lecturer at the Amsterdam School of Real Estate. He was awarded the Ernst Meyer Prize 1997 from the Geneva Association for the best European research in the field of insurance economics. Within Ortec Finance his fields of expertise are climate finance and ALM for insurance companies,
Contact Events Team for more information.
0207 632 1498
Webinar will be live from 13.00-14.30
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