By definition, changes in the average human lifespan are realised slowly over time. It can be useful though to reclassify this emergence as the long term result of a series of various trigger events that have occurred at a single point in time. We define these events Longevity Catalysts. Examples of past catalysts could include:
- The birth of the NHS
- The introduction of screening programmes
- Various medical breakthroughs
- The smoking ban in public places
With this in mind, the Longevity Catalysts Member Interest Group (MIG) has been set up to help the actuarial community answer one simple question, “What future events are we aware of today whose occurrence is likely to be coupled with a significant impact on UK longevity?”
Current actuarial approaches to the assessment of future mortality:
- Lean on current and/or past trends, perhaps overly so.
- Are unresponsive to catalysts events, whose effect will only be revealed within death data over future years.
- Do not harness the potential of a collaborative approach to future catalysts where more of a consensus on these future signposts to lower death rates, may be achieved.
Please sign up here to the Longevity Catalysts MIG to join us in further exploring this fascinating topic. We plan to host a series of events (the first to occur in Q4 2019) for members to get together to share their knowledge and ideas. We welcome all members of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, as well as other interested parties. We look forward to seeing you there. Please post any questions you may have to the MIG website or visit our Longevity Catalysts webpage for further information.