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Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges

Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Many feel that the current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement.

A recent paper, published in Nature magazine sets out to show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario.