In April 2019 the IFoA, led by our Infrastructure Working Party, responded to a consultation on resilience from the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).
This paper grew from that response. It identifies key factors behind the need for resilience, such as climate change. It then charts a course for improving decision-making about resilience, which includes identifying resilience options, devising alternative future scenarios and taking account of extreme events. Actuaries could help project teams to navigate this process, by building an appropriate resilience analysis framework, choosing which scenarios to study, and assisting them to select the most suitable of the identified resilience options.
Our recommendations in the paper include that the Government or the NIC should issue guidance on analysing resilience options, and that resilience analysis should not be limited to major projects, because infrastructure assets are increasingly interdependent. We also argue that solutions should take account of ‘quality of life’ impacts as well as costs.
We are also publishing a hypothetical case study alongside the policy paper. This sets out how an actuary might approach analysing resilience options, using flood defences as an example.
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