Commentary on Bulletin Risk Uncertainty Psychology and Judgement.
Tan Suee Chieh, IFoA President, spoke to 600 actuaries in South East Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Khmer, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines) in four separate Zoom meetings in the last two weeks (27 March to 10 April) on Risk, Uncertainty, Psychology and Judgement.
Using his background and interest in actuarial science, psychology, culture, change dynamics and other disciplines, he has woven a personal narrative on the unfolding COVID-19 crisis. This is Mr. Tan’s narrative and does not represent IFoA policy.
He spoke on risk, uncertainty, the psychology of risk preferences in different contexts in the COVID-19 crisis, and how good judgment can, and need to be brought to bear. He also said that in an increasingly uncertain world, where risks cannot be modelled on a probabilistic basis, actuaries will increasingly need to develop, use and rely on judgement.
Other actuarial associations
International Actuarial Association (IAA)
Many of the actuarial associations around the world are producing and updating reports and data to help inform decisions in this very chaotic time. The IAA has created a webpage that consolidates links to much of this information.
Estelle Pearson, Principal at Finity Consulting, writes about what this pandemic situation means for General Insurance actuaries. View the article
Society of Actuaries
This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the COVID-19 epidemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.
American Academy of Actuaries
Canadian Institute of Actuaries
Casualty Actuarial Society
View the latest announcements and resources related to the impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak on various CAS operations.
Actuarial Society of South Africa
- COVID-19: Potential impacts on insurers publication: In this report Hymans Robertson look at the impact on markets, the spread of the virus, and potential impacts on insurers – both immediate and long-term.
- DC savers and the economic impact of coronavirus publication: In this summary Hymans Robertson consider questions relating to the impact of COVID-19 in relations to the pensions landscape.
The Infectious Disease Response Site is designed as an online resource for clients and industry peers to access information and insight on risk exposures and human capital (duty of care) concerns emanating from an infectious disease event or outbreak.
Willis Towers Watson
View Willis Towers Watson COVID-19 resources hub.
View SCOR’s press release on COVID-19.
The COVID-19 – CMO Update and Overview, created by Achim Regenauer, Chief Medical Officer PartnerRe, is intended only as a general overview of COVID-19.
Lloyds of London
- Coronavirus updates hub
- Lloyds pandemic potential insurance impacts report: considers the impacts a pandemic might have on the insurance industry.
McKinsey & Company
View the article from senior partners at McKinseys ‘Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time.
Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Read the RGA's paper on COVID-19 Mortality Rates by Age and Gender: Why is the Disease Killing More Men than Women?
The RGA Knowledge Center provides resources on actuarial, risk, underwriting and medical insights related to COVID-19.
Imperial College London
Imperial College London presents the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks.
The Lancet has produced a hub to assist health workers and researchers working under challenging conditions to bring this outbreak to a close and created a Coronavirus Resource Centre.
Oxford University Press
Access OUP's resources on coronavirus and related topics.
University of Oxford
Presentation by Dr Robin Thompson - How do mathematicians model infectious disease outbreaks?
Henley Business School
Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on different areas of business and finance have been shared by academics from Henley Business School in a new book.
Other External resources
British Medical Association
The BMA answer questions about the impact of COVID-19 on work, training, education, and wellbeing of medical professionals.
Royal Society for Public Health
View RSPH's Statement on Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Association of British Insurers
The ABI have produced a guide to some of the most commonly asked questions surrounding the impact of COVID-19.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD have developed an AI powered tool to enable individuals to allow the latest COVID-19 developments in any country.
Institute for Fiscal Studies
View IFS commentary on the Chancellors fiscal response to COVID-19.
Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
The PLSA’s COVID-19 resources is designed to help its members deal with short-term issues and prepare for the longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Isaac Newton Institute
The INI programme on Infectious Disease Dynamics has a series of reports and seminar listings with recordings and pdf slides available to those with strong mathematical backgrounds wishing to learn more about pandemic modelling.
What Happens Next?
COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations, by Marcel Salathé & Nicky Case.
Royal Statistical Society
Committee hearing on Wednesday 15 April 2020. Oral evidence session with Sam Woods, Deputy Governor Bank of England and CEO of the Prudential Regulation Authority, that feeds into the committee's inquiry into the economic impact of COVID-19.
Health and Social Care Committee
Committee hearing on Tuesday 5 May 2020. The Committee questions the Chief Scientific Adviser and Deputy Chief Medical Officer on the progress the UK is making in relation to COVID-19, and the modelling and data that is being considered. This forms the fifth session in the inquiry into the management of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Committee hearing on Tuesday 17 March 2020. The focus on this session includes preparations for hospital and community services to deal with a potential COVID-19 epidemic, likely impact on routine NHS services, risks to patients and staff, and information sharing and co-ordination with other agencies and the public.
Committee hearing on Thursday 5 March 2020. The CMO for England, the UK Government's Chief Medical Adviser, is asked to detail current planning to deal with an upsurge in cases of COVID-19, preventative measures to safeguard public health, options for containing the virus and how prepared the NHS is to deal with a major outbreak.
This includes guidance on social-distancing, staying at home, travel advice, NHS information and links to the latest government announcements.
Read the Government Actuary's Department news article on how they are supporting the government’s fight against coronavirus.
World Health Organisation
The World Health Organisation has developed a hub with information on how to keep yourself safe, situation reports, updates on research and development, and myth-busters.
Bank of England
The Pensions Regulator
Financial Conduct Authority
The FCA has significant resources focused on responding for the firms it regulates.
Financial Reporting Council
View the guidance for companies and auditors during the COVID-19 crisis.
Office for Budget Responsibility
Office of National Statistics
Latest data and analysis on coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK and its effect on the economy and society.
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The IFoA takes no responsibility for information contained on external links from this website. Views expressed by individuals and organisations on external sites are not necessarily those of the IFoA itself.
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This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.
This webinar will provide an update on the emerging thinking around future regulation of DB schemes:
The webinar will discuss the challenges and opportunities schemes face in evaluating end game options, choosing a target state and understanding the impact this strategic decision could have on member outcomes long after the “end state” is reached. Adolfo, Kevin and Rhian bring over 60 years of experience in the industry and a variety of perspectives as scheme actuary, covenant adviser, trustee, de-risking adviser and insurer.
Retail banking is going through a period of substantial change as it moves into the digital age. Banks have large amounts of data about their customers and about their risks. Open data application programming interface (APIs) and data science are enabling banks to use their data to offer innovative and sometimes personalised services. Data science is also adding value in risk areas such as fraud detection and cyber security. At the same time, the move to online banking is making it easier for firms including fintechs to enter banking without having to establish branch networks.
Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.
Patrick Kennedy, Partner at Gateley Legal and Founding Director of Entrust (a leading professional pensions trustee company), will be delivering an update on the latest legal developments during the course of 2020. With both a pensions legal perspective and over 25 years of trustee service, Patrick will seek to highlight how the letter of the law has continued to evolve against the backdrop of a difficult and challenging year
The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report.
Covid-19 has required an urgent and cross-practice initiative to facilitate the extensive impact this pandemic has across all industries. IFoA members have been keen to contribute in a different way, so we developed the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] to coordinate our effort, with a more efficient governance.
We have over 500 volunteers and countless topics which we have amalgamated into 93 workstreams.