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Actuary predicts Premier League champion and who will be relegated
8 November 2010
At the Actuarial Profession's Life conference, taking place in Birmingham from 7 to 9 November 2010, Greg will deliver a presentation using computer simulations and a technique known as Monte Carlo simulations, named after the casino capital of Europe. The detailed model has been tested against recent results, and shows how it would have been able to successfully predict the winner (and those teams who would be relegated) of the Premier League, had it been used at this stage last season.
Solvency II and making sense of enterprise risks
5 November 2010
Solvency II requires risk interactions to be considered, yet typical risk management techniques split risks into categories which are studied separately then aggregated to look at the overall risk profile. This loses valuable information about the risk interactions leading to potentially dangerous conclusions.
Actuarial working party establishes that bodily injury claims cost on motor policies are rising faster than thought
25 October 2010
A report produced by the Actuarial Profession’s third party working party has concluded that overall BI claims inflation is now running at about 30%, considerably higher than previous estimates. The study, which had access to data supplied by companies making up 90% of the UK motor insurance market, shows that a third of the increase is due to the higher number of BI claims while the majority of the increase can be attributed to the higher average cost of settling claims. The increases come at a time when the overall number of reported accidents has been falling.
Pensions pressures bear highest on young people
20 October 2010
Saving more will be tough for the young, who are also now facing the pinch prospect of rising tuition fees for their higher education. Personal debt, currently standing at around £1.5 trillion, is likely to rise as students incur greater debts through university. This will only delay the time that a student can contemplate saving for retirement through a pension.
Practical lessons in preparing for Solvency II
15 October 2010
The plenary session was opened by Neil Cantle, who applied theories of behavioural enterprise risk management to own risk and solvency assessment (ORSA).
Actuaries must be ready for the technical provisions of Solvency II
15 October 2010
The speakers said that technical provisions are fundamental to Solvency II, and that actuaries should not underestimate the work involved to meet these requirements. In addition, the importance of gathering the right data in order to calculate the technical provisions should not be underestimated, particularly if the data is not currently available.
True cost of maritime piracy is still uncertain
11 October 2010
The report, which will be unveiled at the Profession’s General Insurance Research Organisation (GIRO) conference in October, will argue that the scarcity of statistics on maritime piracy make the estimation of risk difficult.
Neil Hilary, a staff actuary with the Profession and one of the authors of the report, explained: “Piracy attacks have been on the increase in the last 15 years. But, since 2006, the level of attacks has increased by an average of 125%. And this is almost entirely due to the attacks by Somali pirates.
EU gender equality legislation could lead to inequality in provision of insurance products
7 October 2010
The warning comes in response to an announcement from Juliane Kokott, Advocate General of the European Court of Justice, who claimed that the practice of setting different insurance rates and pension calculations for men and women could be in violation of EU sex discrimination laws.
A new approach towards emerging risk for life assurance
1 September 2010
Mr Cantle suggested that the current approaches only work for risks which are already predicted but are weak at capturing emerging risks early in their development.
The approach of Mr Cantle and his colleagues looks at how underlying risk factors are interacting and causing uncertainty about business delivery. Emerging risk is assessed by measuring the uncertainty in the observed performance of an organisation and the interactions of its drivers rather than using observations to justify a preconception about where risks might be emerging.
The Actuarial Profession establishes publishing partnership with Cambridge University Press
23 August 2010
The Annals of Actuarial Science is a peer-reviewed journal which has been publishing research papers in all areas of actuarial science since 2006. The journal welcomes papers in any area of actuarial science or practice, especially papers that are applied in nature.
Since 1995, the British Actuarial Journal has published papers presented to sessional meetings of the Actuarial Profession along with transcripts of the discussions and debates; Presidential addresses; memoirs and papers of general interest to the profession.