CMI Working Paper 170

Working Paper 170 was published in February 2023. The working paper describes the experience of mortality under the underwritten whole-of-life assurances for the period 2015-2019; high-level summary results are available in an accompanying spreadsheet.

The analyses show:

• Experience is generally heavier than expected when comparing to the T16 tables, particularly for male non-smokers. Female smokers have lighter experience than expected but data volumes for this group are low. The shape by age is broadly similar to that of the T16 tables at age bands where there are reasonable data volumes.
• Numbers of claims at short policy durations are very low, however, it appears that the select T16 tables provide a reasonable fit to male non-smoker experience at short durations, indicated by relatively stable A/E values by duration, but less so for female non-smokers, and male and female smokers (although these are small datasets, so have lower credibility).
• There is relatively little data outside the lowest band of £1-£19,999 and confidence intervals around the highest bands are wide (£200,000+). Experience is heaviest in the lowest band and markedly lighter at the highest bands.
• Experience gets lighter between commencement years “2005 or earlier” and 2011 but generally heavier thereafter, albeit with low credibility due to low data volumes.

Summary results are released alongside this paper.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper.

Working Paper 170 is available to Authorised Users only.