CMI Working Paper 143

The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021.

We proposed two changes in method for the CMI_2020 version of the Model, in Working Paper 137, published in September 2020, and sought feedback from Authorised Users.

Working Paper 143 summarises the responses to the consultation and describes our plans for CMI_2020:

• Weighting mortality data for 2020: Following broad support from respondents to the consultation, we will modify the calibration process for CMI_2020 so that users could choose to place more or less weight on data for individual years. In particular the Core version of CMI_2020 will use a weight of 0% for 2020 data, and weights of 100% for all other years.
   
• Change to calibration age range: Many respondents agreed with our proposal to change the calibration age range to 20-90, based on the supporting analysis in Working Paper 137. However a number of respondents noted that the analysis was sensitive to the period of data considered, and alternative analyses would justify retaining the existing approach. In light of these responses, and our further analysis, we will calibrate CMI_2020 to data for ages 20 to 100 inclusive, as in CMI_2019.